Haiku Wednesday

Paradise

Sand between my toes
White powder under my skis
A hug from my wife

2008 Running

Well that is my year in running....here is to a better 2009!

Rox Talk

Tale of Two Pitchers?

Okay so the column on the left is 2007 and the column on the right is 2008.  The top line is the number of strikes thrown by the pitcher and the percentage of the total number of pitches thrown by pitcher (i.e. 63% of pitches thrown were strikes).  The next three lines describe the type of strikes and the percentage of the type by total strikes (yeah don't ask me why they are greater than 100%, 43 extra pitches of some sort!).  The final five rows deal with what happened to the batter or the ball (Groundball, Flyball, Line Drive, Strike Out, or Other [Walks]) with the percentage based on total batters faced.  So basically the percentages are the same except a bit more flyballs and little less strikeouts in 2008.

So what about these next numbers.  Again the ratios (ratios used since the 2008 pitcher didn't pitch as many innings) are pretty much the same from 2007 and 2008. 

Moving on we start to see a big giant difference in the next series of numbers and that is HR allowed.  5 percent difference in Home Runs in 2008!   The percentage with these is simply the percent of hits allowed (runs allowed, HR allowed, BB allowed) per batter faced. 

And so we have a pitcher who pretty much had the same basic pitching stats with some more flyballs, little less strikeouts, and some more home runs which led to the following bottom lines (see final tally below). Pretty fascinating that difference between a 17 win season and a 4 win season is so small...was Jeff Francis strikeout pitch in 2007 turning into a homerun pitch in 2008?  Did batter's adjust to Francis and Francis not readjust?  What did the Red Sox's find during the 2007 World Series that had the rest of the NL looking for?

Christmas Gifts

This year's gift was the fabulous and always entertaining

iPod Touch 16 GB!

In addition received another baseball History Shots, two books (Haiku Book, Outliers, and The Natural), new water bottle, cool globe that when it is dark shows the night sky, book on sky scrapers, Nike running jacket, and some games to include Scotland Yard.

Haiku Wednesday

New

Throw off the decay

Slate is clean, crisp, and shiny

Be like a seedling

Michael Chabon - Mysteries of Pittsburgh

This is Chabon's first novel, written while still a student.  He received something like $150,000 for it while most first time novelists get about $6 - 7 K.  I have to eventually get to all his work and basically this book was kind of like his M.O. for all his books.  Some parts amazing, other parts kind of slow, and some parts kind of shocking.  Anyway Mysteries started out well, had some definite good wackiness (Phlox), then got interesting, and then ended shockingly.  So I enjoyed the first 2/3 but not the last third.  I mean overall the novel was good and I just have to admit that I had a hard time enjoying the homosexual relationship described in the book.  I'm not a homophobe but to read about two men having sexual relations is just not easy to read.  It did fit with the book so I'm ok with it but it isn't easy to enjoy.

page 39:  "It was as though she had studied American notions of beauty from some great distance and had come all this way only to find she had overdone the clothes, a debutante from another planet"

Rox Talk

This is my crazy pitching blog post, stop if you hate numbers ;-)

Basically Cook and Jimenez were the work horses for the team. De la Rosa was the surprise and savior. The first four pitchers accounted for 75% (2007 had 5 pitchers to account for 75% of the IP) of the starts and overall the starting pitching accounted for 61.7% (2007, 64.1%) of the innings pitched for the entire team. If a quality start is defined as a game score of 50 then only Cook and Jimenez averaged a quality start during the season. Cook's 81 game score was the highest for the team (2007, high game score was 77). Hernandez had the distinction of having the lowest game score of 5 (beating out Fogg's game score of 4 last year)! 

In addition to the the above stats, I also looked at some other wacky stuff. One question I have always had was what would be a starter's record if he won (or loss) those games because of relievers (or was bailed out by the offensive or relievers and got the no decision)? Also which pitcher actually pitches with the lead? 

So in normal speak the Roxs starters were 54 - 62 with 46 no decisions (versus 55 - 47 and 61 no decisions in 2007). In my revised look the starters were 76 - 74 with 12 ties (versus 84 - 60 with 19 ties in 2007). Cook would have won 18 games. Once again Jimenez was the unluckiest as he left 16 games winning and the bullpen could hang on only 12 times. As I mentioned last year I don't think this revisionist look at pitching stats mean anything because over a pitcher's career my guess all the blown saves or offensive help probably average out. To me the bottom line is what does the team do when a certain Starter is on the mound. When Cookie step to the rubber the Rox won 19 times accounting for 25.7% of the total team wins. 

If the above study looked at the underbelly of starting pitching (who has luck, no luck, or just happens to pitch that day the offensive was asleep) this next look is what does the Starter do for themselves (i.e. keeps the team in the game by keeping the lead or keeping the game tied). Of the starters, Jimenez pitched with the lead 70% of the time and Cook pitched with the lead 67% of the time. The team overall pitched 62% of the time with the lead or tied (versus 67% in 2007). Finally what did the starters throw to during the season.

Well as you guessed it Cook led the team in Groundballs and Jimenez and de la Rosa had lots of strikeouts.  Interesting to see that Jimenez and Cook have very few flyballs which probably leads to their success.

This Week in Comics...

Buffy #20

A filler issue...ha pretty fun little issue.  Taking a page from the old days when supposedly Buffy was being shopped as an animated show.  Well the show never happened but taking the characterizations and throwing them into a dream makes this special kind of fun.  Although it is a little sad because Buffy goes back to her days before becoming a serious slayer.

Iron Man #8

Tony Stark post Invasion has Tony being a thorn in Osborne's side and we've barely begun.  My question is when does Pepper put the suit on?  Has there ever been a female to wear the suit?   Anyway it looks like Tony has gone underground and rogue.  Should be a good one...

Spider-Man Noir #1

The X-men Noir was okay but this one seemed to work a bit better.  I have to admit I am a fan of new takes on old characters.  With only 4 issues each will the story have enough time to develop anything worth while (i.e. Alpha Flight).

X-men #505

OK what is up with this storyline? First you build up this Maddie thing then you put it on hold for two issues and lose whatever you were trying to build. Of course then you throw in this play with Emma joining up with Norman (?) Your killing the story. Ughhh stories makes comics and maybe Fraction is trying to keep Dodson off of the Maddie story since it is more female driven? Oh well whatever..

Time Magazine - List Issue

Time Magazine - 12/22/08 Issue

Top 10 Discoveries

8.  Red Sox jersey in Yankee Stadium concrete

10 Most Memorable Olympic Moments

1. Phelps ' Photo Finish (2 cm  |--------------| )

My Personal Top 10 of 2008 (not in any order)

10.  Yuengling and Harpoon

9.  Guitar Hero

8.  X-men:  Messiah Complex

7.  Lego Force Unleashed Rogue Shadow

6.  Iron Man

5.  Book of the Year:  Laika - Nick Abadzis and Hilary Sycamore

4.  Music Group I Liked This Year - Placebo

3.  Baseball Research - Number of Hits to Score Run

2.  iTouch

1.  Fresh Maine Lobster

Haiku Wednesday

Light

December Darkness

The sun is on vacation

Rudolph shines the way

Rox Talk

Winter Meetings

Boy Howdy, Las Vegas was real exciting especially for the Roxs who picked up 38 year old relief pitcher, Alan Embree, and called it a success (?), at least that is what the email to season ticket holders said.  Realistically, I didn't expect the Roxs to pick up Manny Ramirez but where is that 4th starter to shore up the rear end of the rotation (Tim Redding???...ughhh scrap heap pitchers ain't the answer)?  Just a thought, but with the money drying up in the free agent market, don't you think that next year Holliday might wish he stuck around for the $85 million the Roxs offered up?  

Big Bat Theory?

The Denver Post and Patrick Saunders led off Sunday's paper with an article asking "whether a team can thrive without (a top-flight slugger)"?  Anytime a question is thrown out like that and then not back up by anything but baseball antidotes I have to look into the numbers.  The obvious difficulty in answering a question like this is how do you classify a slugger?  Is it your home run king, your RBI leader, combination of HR/RBI leader, or some other stat like OPS?  In the Rox's 16 years, the HR and RBI leader was the same only 8 times (Bichette, Galarraga, Castilla, Helton (x3), and Holliday). 

In my thinking and looking at 16 years of Rox's data, I will classify a slugger that hits greater than 20% of their teams HRs or hits in more than 16% of the team's RBIs.  So for 2008, Holliday and Hawpe hit 25 HR which individually accounted for 16% of the team's HR (160).  In 2007, Holliday's 36 accounted for 21% of the team's total (171).  So Holliday was a slugger in 2007 but not so much in 2008.  For RBIs, Atkins had 99 or 13.9% of the team's total (714) and in 2007 Holliday had 16.6% (137) of the team's total (823).  The All-Time leader is Helton in 2000 when he accounted for 26% of the team's HR at 42 (team 161) and Castilla in 1998 when he had 18.2% of the team's RBIs (144 of 791).  So back to the analysis...if you take the years the Rox had a slugger (i.e. > or equal to 20%) then there were 10 seasons and those teams had a collective record of 767 - 791 (0.492).  If you move the definition to 22% then there were 5 seasons with a collective record of  361 - 391 (.480).  RBI leader team collective records for greater than equal to 16% is 760 - 798 (0.488).   From this analysis it would appear having one player collect all of your big hits doesn't really make for a great Rox's team.  With the other 5 seasons of not having a "slugger" the Rox were a collective 422 - 550 (.434) so I guess in some manner of speaking having a big bopper might help the Roxs.  Unfortunately, the Rox's history isn't probably the best example as they have had only 5 winning seasons!  It is interesting to note though that for four of five of those seasons the HR and RBI leaders were the same...

OK so maybe the Rox's history isn't the best place to look.   In 2007 and 2008, the MLB average was 18% and 19% respectively for HR leaders with respect to their team totals and 14.3% and 14.5% for RBIs.   It is interesting to note that in 2008, only 8 of the 30 teams had different HR and RBI leaders (Marlins, Reds, Cubs, Mets, Rox, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Mariners).  In summary then for the two years noted if you look at collective team records for those that had one batter have more than 18% of the team's total HR then the record was 2431 - 2429 (.500) and evenly split with 30 teams having one batter > 18% vs 30 with no batter > 18% of total team HR.  For RBIs when one batter with more than 14% of the team's RBI total then the record was 2372 - 2325 (.505) with a 29/31 split.  If you increase the HR to 22% then you have a record of 987 - 957 (.508) with a 12/48 spilt and increase RBI total to 16% you have a collective win total of 1226 - 1205 (.504) with a 15/45 split.  At a 22% HR and a 16% RBI slugger, than these teams would have 10 - 8 more wins above .500 respectively.  Note if you modify my statement above and change a slugger definition to > 22% then the Rox had 5 seasons with a 'slugger; and the collective record was 361 - 391 (.480).

So perhaps there really isn't any true statistical basis for determining if having a slugger is worth more wins.  From my perspective having a big bat accounting for alot of HR and RBIs is probably not statistically relevant but I bet mentally it has a huge factor.  How many late inning rallies center around that number 3 or 4 batter?  Also it is difficult to measure how a team feels if behind by one or two runs with their slugger coming up 3rd or 4th in the order versus having your 7 - 9 hitters?  I tend to think of it has the reason baseball as sided with one dominant closer. I don't think it really matters who pitches the 9th but so much of baseball has become mental that not having your "closer" come in makes your team more vulnerable?

This Week in Comics

Secret Invasion #8

8 issues and this is what we got?  So much potential and so little to show for it.  I mean come on...Norman Osborne as the head of the new SHIELD or saw I call it HAMMER.  I expect better from Bendis.  This was just a stunt and I expect us to tell a compelling story...not some cheap DC crap.  Marvel has always moved in a great direction and this not so much.  

I imagine it will probably grow on me but come on this stinks of Lex being called president...

X-Infernus #1

This isn't getting as much play as I was imaging.  I thought it was the next big X-crossover event but it appears to be just some side issue.  With only 4 issues it would seem it merely a way to bring back Magik (without much fanfare...).  I guess for most of us the Magik thing only appeals to those of us who grew up with the New Mutants.

X-men #1 Noir

The first issue in the "Noir" series.  I guess X-men and Spidey got the treatment.  Again it seems Marvel (the House of Ideals...) can't come up with any new ideals and it seems they just stealing from the Distinguished Competition.  I mean didn't Batman have an alternative storyline like the Batman Gaslight?  Ughhhh problem is I'm hooked so I will pick it up and give it a read.

Random

For something totally random try going to random.org!  For true art do the bitmap generator which produces a random bitmap using the randomness from atmospheric noise.

Haiku Wednesday

Snow

White blankets the land
Refreshes, hides blemishes
Crunch beneath your feet

Larry Niven - Fleet of the Worlds

Really I pick books mostly at random to read.  Although if I look over books that I read I tend to read authors back to back or at least relatively close and rather odd if I was really trying to read books randomly.  Oh well this book took a while to get into.  Perhaps that is one reason I read authors together as you get into their mindset and thus it is easier to get into the books faster.  Of the sci-fi I have read recently this one and the Larry Niven/Brenda Cooper, Building Harlequin's Moon (which probably wasn't recent but I remember it rather well...)  It is interesting to wonder how much Larry actually writes in all of these books that he co-authors.  Of all the sci-fi writers he has certainly had a slew of books that he co-authors.  I wonder how that works?  Interesting to go to a book signing with co-authors and ask how one writes a book with two heads?  All in all I love the "Known Space" universe.  This one goes in a bit more detail on the puppeteers.  Interesting concept.  Kind of shocking with the creation of a slave group to farm for them.  First time I was actually a little shocked about the ramifications of a storyline when reading a sci-fi book.  Oh and guess what there is a sequel so I am sure there will be another post..

Rox Talk

Short post this week as I just got back from a seven day cruise in the Caribbean! Needless to say, I didn't think much about anything except which direction the sun was facing and where the bar was. 

From the Stat of the Day blog, I came across this nugget from Steve Lombardi. In short he was looking at the NY Yankees starting pitching and wondering just how bad they've been from 2004 - 2008. At first he was looking for starting pitchers who had started 90% of the time and had at least 28 starts and an ERA+ of greater than or equal to 110. He then dropped this to 100 to compare to the Red Sox over the same time period and Yanks had 7 solid seasons versus the Red Sox's 14 (obviously the Red Sox have 2 world series rings over this time period)! 

And therefore the question is how many solid seasons did the Roxs have over this time span? The answer is actually 6 (I was surprised!) with Jason Jennings 2006 season leading the way with an ERA+ 130. And to think we supposedly had an awful pitching year in 2008 and yet we had 2 solid pitching seasons from Cook at an ERA+ 117 and U-Ball at an ERA+ of 116.  The other three came from Jeff Francis in 2007 with an ERA+ of 114, Cook in 2007 with an ERA+ of 116, and another Cook in 2006 with and ERA+ of 116 (look at Mr. Consistent....).

Of course while we had six solid seasons and the Yanks had seven over that span, the Yanks won 476 games while the Roxs only scraped by with 375. Although the Roxs were pretty pathetic in '04 and '05 (note Kennedy's ERA+ of 134 in '05 doesn't count because he didn't start 28 games). Yanks scored 4,470 runs over that time span with the Roxs scored only 3,993 (an average of almost 95 more runs a season).  Outscoring your opponent can have its advantages especially when their pitching isn't better than yours!

All in all I guess I take comfort that in 2009 we do have a starting rotation of Francis, Cook, and U-Ball which is at least a good start...now we just have to find starters for the other 66 games (assuming the big three can get 32 starts each....)

Disney Cruise!

Being on the great big ocean blue is quite a perspective placer.  A very enjoyable vacation with stops in Key West (Hemingway and his Cats), Grand Cayman (we stopped but high seas didn't allow us onto the island), Cozumel (Mayan Ruins!), and Castaway Cay (Disney owned island).  Big boat and some great performers especially Jason Bishop (Illusionist) and his lovely assistant (heck we had a $1 changed into a $20!).

Get Your Map!
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Haiku Wednesday

Cheers

Holiday season
The Christmas decorations
brings lots of smiles

Philip Jose Farmer - Tarzan Lives

In my quest to read all things ERB I came across this book on one of the myriad webpages in search of more things ERB.  Up to this point John Carter has been my ERB obsession with not much attention paid to his more iconic figure...Tarzan aka Lord Greystoke.  Up until this point, I haven't really thought that much about the swinging loincloth clad hero.  Guess too many Saturday afternoon memories of a black and white TV show with goofy monkeys!  Anyway saw this book and decided to bone up on Tarzan.  It was actually a pretty good summary of what Tarzan has done in 24 or so books.  I had no ideal he chased Jane all the way to Wisconsin!  What was even more interest was the tracing of Tarzan through English "pulp" literature and tying Tarzan to Sherlock Holmes and Doc Savage (a la Alan Moore and League of Extraordinary Gentlemen).  When I finish the Barsoom Adventures I imagine I will first read his short Venus series and then move on to Tarzan.  Boy there are alot of good fun books to read that are free!

Rox Talk

Hot Stove News

Not much from the Rox front. Nice to see Baylor back in the purple pinstripes. Hurdle will have two former managers ready to take over when the Rox struggle out of the gate next year. At least it will keep him honest.

It's the Weather, Stupid!

To further my cause in esoteric baseball research I decided to look at the effects on homeruns and weather at Coors Field. Weather data comes from baseball reference. Data includes 2007 and 2008 numbers (grey boxes and line) and includes Rox and opponents homers. Circles are the 2007 and 2008 data points. The rate is determined by taking the total number of homers for the point and dividing this by the number of times that point occurred (i.e., it has been 80 degrees 5 times during the last two years and a total of 9 homers have occurred so the rate is 1.80). So below is temperature and generally the trend is that has it gets warmer the rate of homers increases. The weighted mean temperature at Coors Field over the last two years has been 74 degrees. The average homers hit at Coors over the last two year has been 2.2 a game. Eighty-three degrees has had the most home runs hit (27)

The next graph shows wind speed and home run rate. Generally as the wind increases homers decrease. This graph is independent of the whether the wind is blowing in or out. The weighted average of wind is about 7.5 mph.

The final graph gives the wind direction. Generally we don't have a Wrigley effect. When the wind is blowing in (147 homers, 67 times) a rate of 2.2 and when blowing out (106 homers, 48 times) for a rate of 2.2. Also it seems when that when the wind blows out the wind speed averages about 6.5 mph while when the wind blows in it is about 8 mph. The most homers occur when the wind is blowing in from centerfield (85) although the highest rate is when the wind blows from left to right (which also has on average the higher wind speed).

This Month in Comics...?

Yup I am on some wacky comic schedule with all my books coming in on the same day!

Buffy #19

Last issue in the Fray crossover. Have to admit this wasn't all that interesting to me as I never read the Fray comic books so have no real buy in with the character and really not for sure why Buffy was there in the first place other than we get so sort of time traveling Willow redemption or something. All story lines can't be that great...

Flash #3

I have been totally impressed by the story and art on this book. Although obviously the character isn't new the viewpoint is and it shows that decent comics can be made even if they aren't from the Big Two (of course it is probably debatable if the Big Two are producing any quality comics. Secret Invasion had potential but got mired and really thudded to the ground by the last issue. Final Crisis and no one seems to care so again it is refreshing to read and see something new for a change.

Batman #681

OK so why does every big storyline in comics lead to the death of a main character. I am sick of this being the plot point to try and expand or start a comic in a new direction. Morrison's storyline was brilliant in some ways and just a carbon copy of former big event storytelling. Have all the good storylines been taken? I mean Batman having a broken back, great...the leveling of Gotham, good...killing him off, I just don't know. One complaint was even after reading the books, then getting online to get a Cliff Notes version of the RIP storyline, I still had to shake my head. The most shocking aspect was a complete revisionist history on who his parents were...that was good. Anyway, I like involved stories but with Morrison things just seem to get lost. Like the whole New X-men run, how did Zorn and Magneto become one? Perhaps 600 issues of continuity just bogs a writer down...

Daredevil #113

The Lady Bullseye saga continues. I think this story will need to gestate beyond this short introduction run. Not for sure if you can really add a new villain and get the bang that you are looking forward. Hopefully they can develop the character and not make it seem cheap. We shall see. 

Haiku Wednesday

Jingle

Merry chime of bells
Catchy tunes spread like snowflakes
Ban the Ba Humbugs

Larry Niven - The Flight of the Horse

A collection of Niven's more sci-fi fantasy related short stories.  Couple of stories about his time traveling character and I guess his one and only all fantasy short story.  Nice work if not quite in the sci-fi vain you come to expect although the underlying humor and quirkiness is there.  What a great imagination!

Rox Talk

This is an update to a post that I did back in July. The Rox at the time had played 108 games. This post updates through 162 games with both our offensive and pitching...

A couple of weeks ago (June or July 2008) I was listening to the Rockies radio broadcast team, Jeff and Jack, and Jack Corigan made the statement that basically said that as your (i.e. the pitcher) pitch count increases in the inning the more likely a run is going to be scored. From the sound of this it made me go hmmm. Two questions immediately popped up...1) is this true (logically you would think yes) and 2) what is on average the amount of pitches thrown in an inning that would allow a single run?

Well off to baseball reference where on their box score page they show the amount of pitches thrown in an inning along with the number of runs. By taking this data and plotting the number of pitches per inning, the runs scored for that number of pitches, and annotating in a running log how often this number of pitches occur in an inning, I was able to come up with the number of pitches thrown in 2008 by Rockies pitchers and what is the average number of pitches thrown to allow for one run in an inning (i.e., a 12 pitch inning occurred 127 times and a total of 18 runs were scored for a rate of 0.14 runs). Conversely the Rox offensive saw 12 pitches only 90 times and scored 10 runs over the season for a rate of 0.11 runs.

Graphically all this data looks like this:

This first plot shows the number of pitches versus the total runs. The size of the circle indicates how often this number of pitches were thrown. The next plot shows the distribution which indicates that 12 and 13 pitches were thrown in an inning approximately 249 times or accounting for about 17.2% of the total innings pitched. Conversely the Rox offensive saw 12 and 13 pitchers approximately 172 times for only about 11.9% of the total innings pitched to them.

The final plot shows the rate at which runs are scored. So for instance 26 pitches in an inning occurred 26 times and a total of 45 runs were scored. Thus giving a rate of 1.73 runs scored when 26 pitches are thrown. If you plot this rate you get this...

A relatively nice curve that has a Rsquare of about 0.8189 (versus 0.6766 for our offensive). If you throw out the outliers you can get a better curve fit. After about 30 pitches in an inning the number of times a team scores runs tends to mess up the rate (i.e. 31 pitches in an inning occurred 14 times with 34 runs scored while 32 pitches happened 6 times with only 11 runs scored). If you take the equation and solve for 1, you get approximately 20.5 pitches for the Rox pitching and 20.6 for the Rox offensive. Pretty consistent.

So there you have it...it does appear as you throw more pitches in an inning, the likely of runs being scored increases.

Follow on questions would be could you establish pitcher effectiveness based on this (i.e., Cook threw 3,068 pitches this year, divided by 20.5 would indicate he should have given up 150 runs (but actually only 102)). Actually a more representative way to look at this would be average pitches per inning that Cook threw (14.5) which would represent approximately 0.53 runs per inning or 113 runs over his 211 innings pitched. And of course you can turn this around and say that Tulowitzki saw 1,536 pitches and if you divide by 20.6 then he should have scored about 75 runs instead of the 48 that he did. But if you look how many pitches he saw per plate appearance (3.6) and multiplying the rate (0.10) by plate appearances then he should have scored only 41 runs. Lowest pitches per inning average was by Buchholz at 13.4 and the most pitches seen was by Podsednik at 4.5 pitches per plate appearance.

College Football

AF final regular season game...where did the season go.  Sitting at 8-3 it would be nice to finish with a W but going into Texas to steal one might be tough.  With a win we might get a better bowl but we shall see.  I think we lose a tight one 21 - 17.

Last week's gun and fun has Notre Dame sinking Navy, Wisconsin scoring 18 unanswered points in the 4th to beat Minnesota...the battle of lakes and freezing temps, New Mexico St losing to Fresno St (which by the way, what state is Fresno?)

Week lucky 13 matchups...battle of 1-6 Indiana teams with Purdue and Hoosiers, battle for Tennessee with Vols and Vanderbilt battling, and what exactly is Citadel doing playing Florida in the Swamp?

Books Change With Time?

As a book lover I obviously keep all the books that I found enjoyable at one time.  In high school I read a lot of Heinlein.  His book The Number of Beast was one of my favorites.  The underlying concept that there are 6 to the 6 to the 6 worlds out there and that every world is created when someone decides to write a story always fascinated me.  And it is funny that the two stories I always go back to is ERB Barsoom books and the Baum's Oz books are featured in this book.  Great serial novels taking a basic ideal and keeping the characters alive.  So having read some ERB lately I decided to revisit the book to see if it held up after all these years.  I figure it has been 20 years since I last read it and while I thought it was ok I sort of got bored with it about halfway through and pretty much skimmed the rest of it.  The whole part with L. Long I just couldn't remember.  Overall it just didn't speak to me like it once did.  Wonder how much that is the case with other books that I hold high esteem for?

Haiku Wednesday

Stuffed

Stomach is guilty

Turkey carcass stares at me

Sure, give me some pie

Magazine Update

The New Yorker

Interesting review of the 2008 election. Always interesting to read everything in hindsight. I mean they plug the whole "change" thing and say that was the essence of the election. Had McCain won what would "change" of meant?  Bottom line was "change" was what the people wanted and from the sound of it the cash that flowed to Obama was a dominating factor in helping him to win.  Good all around articles.  Later in the issue was a fiction piece by Jonathan Lethem called "Lostronaut" Weird ass story about a failing space station and the occupants aboard. Kind of a sad story....

Rox Talk

This week the pitching HOKE are in. See below...note pitching is a bit more complicated in the formula:

Total Bases (1B, 2B, 3B, HR) + RBI (minus HR) * RBI base factor (see last week's post) + Hit By Pitch + Walk + Balk + Stolen Base + Wild Pitch - Pick Off - Caught Stealing - Double Plays - Offensive HOKE = HOKE

Note: that I take the pitcher's offensive HOKE and subtract it from their pitching HOKE because a pitcher's goal is to have fewer bases allowed and since they bat and can add bases to their count (granted very few) this gets subtracted. So for instance Cook had 474 HOKE and faced 886 batter's (he also batted 78 times himself) and so had 3,232 possible HOKE which gave him a percentage of 14.7% or 101 HOKE+ (note the MLB average was 14.9%) . See the chart below for this year's pitching prowess (compared to last year's). HOKE, followed by HOKE (or base) per plate appearance, HOKE divided 4 for runs, HOKE+ (based on MLB average), RC or Runs Created, WPA, and WS or Win Shares (a win is worth 3 win shares).

Obviously the team did a bit better in 2007. Interesting to note that while Cook's HOKE+ wasn't that much greater in 2008 then 2007 he had a much better season in the eyes of many fans. Hopefully Corpas can come back to form and Buchholz continue his bullpen prowess. If Street in facts stays in the mix that makes us have a pretty good pen for next year. Also if Francis can gain back his form from 2007 that makes a pretty potent 1-2-3 (assuming Jimenez continues to improve). De la Rosa is a decent 4th man which leads us to find a fifth between Hirsh, Reynolds, Morales, and Smith.

Now that I have the HOKE complete for both offense and pitching, I have to wonder if it really means anything? Does Holliday's 135 versus Buchholz's 129 mean much? Holliday had 23 win shares to Buchholz's 9 (7.5 wins to 3 wins). Buchholz's average of bases per plate appearance was 11.5% versus Hollidays 20.1% (MLB average 14.9%) but Buchholz only played in 59 games versus Holliday's 139. So although it is interesting that bases are the one thing that can be compared to pitcher's and batters the final number probably still doesn't allow you to compare a player's real value to his team (and versus his teammates). Perhaps next week I will take a look at the MLB in general and find what the top player's HOKE are...

Box Score Haiku - The Book

I have a sister site called box score haiku in which I wrote a haiku for every 2008 Colorado Rockies game. For posterity, I compiled a version of the box score haiku into a paperback book. The cover is below...

You can buy it here....

College Football

Once again I missed a weekend. Not for sure where the time goes but AF beat up on CSU last weekend and is 8-2 going into the last two games against BYU and TCU. All is all a good season regardless of the final two games. Certainly a chance tomorrow at home against BYU but with history on BYU's side I would imagine it will be a long tomorrow. Then a final game at TCU. Maybe we can win one and finish 9 - 3. Anyway you cut it, it was another strong showing the only real disappointment was the loss to Navy. Keep the fingers crossed that we get to go bowling again this year. Anyway I think AF will be tough tomorrow but end up on the wrong side with a 30 - 17 loss.

Two weeks ago notorious match ups: Kansas beat up on Kansas St (king corn), W beats E in Michigan, key preseason basketball match up for Duke and Wake Forest (with Wake Forest winning in OT with a 3 pointer), and finally a once proud conflict between Oklahoma and Nebraska with Oklahoma head and shoulders above their northern cousin.

This week's gun and fun has Notre Dame hoping to sink Navy (have to root for my brethren on this one), Minnesota and Wisconsin...the battle of lakes and freezing temps, New Mexico St and Fresno St (which by the way, what state is Fresno?)

Belated Birthday - Apollo Saturn V

The greatest engineering feat in the 20th century. Hmmm I wonder what the greatest engineering feat in the previous 19 centuries were...(Eiffel Tower for the 19th Century).  Something to think about...

Anyway I read somewhere, I can't remember where, that there was a fact that suppose the Saturn V had 10,000,000 parts and assuming the reliability was at 99.9999 then there would still be 9 equipment failures. The fact that only one mission had a potential disaster was truly remarkable. Standing in at 363 feet it is the largest rocket ever launched.  Although I believe the Soviet's Energia had more pounds per thrust (?). Marvelous creation and amazing that it took only 6 - 7 years to conceive.  

Haiku Wednesday

Dancing

Timid, self conscious
Kevin Bacon I am not
Foot tied more like it

Election Recap

Well Nate Silver with the help of an overabundant amount of stats probably came the closest in predicting who won the election.  At a week to go he had the election at 351 to 187.  The final outcome was above.  I believe the only difference was Obama winning Indiana which had a slight edge to McCain.  Amazing look at an election and because he is a baseball guy I have to give him kudos!

Rox Talk

Holliday Gone...

In a trade with the Oakland A's, the Roxs finally part ways with Holliday and in return get 23 year old outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, 24 year old left hand pitcher Greg Smith, and 25 right hand reliever Huston Street.  After last week, it became apparent that Holliday had no desire to re-sign with the Roxs and due to the fighting words between management and Holliday any sort of leverage the Roxs might have kind of faded away.  I think this was a better trade for what the Cardinals were offering but youth is always tricky and you have to think why Mr Moneyball gave away these players.  The key to this trade had to be Street has a back up to Corpas and set up man.  Smith becomes another log jam pitcher for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation.  Gonzalez is a young star that is probably iffy.  I for one am not disappointed by Holliday's departure...see post here.

I think Holliday is one of those players simply out for the contract.  And that is ok.  I can't begrudge a person with the ability to hit a little ball who wants to go for the gusto.  That is part of baseball but in this case I would say be careful what you wish for because you aren't always guaranteed the limelight...you might get traded to a team with no more upside then the team you are leaving.  With the Angels in the AL West, I just don't see Holliday going to anymore playoffs then hanging out with the Roxs.  The interesting question is what did Mr Moneyball see in this deal?  Certainly he doesn't have the long-term cash...but perhaps he see Holliday as a 2009 trade deadline bonaza to a team like the Yankees who want to win now and will give up the moon and stars to get another bat (?).  Have fun in Oakland Matt and thanks for the "Slide"...you will always be a Rox Star in Denver.

2008 Offensive Hoke

In last week's post on the Rox, I went through a study to find the total bases that a player got when counting their RBIs.  In earlier studies, I simply picked a number which I estimated to be around 2. In determining my "Hoke" I established the formula of:

Total Bases (1B, 2B, 3B, HR) + RBI (minus HR) * RBI base factor (see last week's post) + Hit By Pitch + Walk + Stolen Base - Caught Stealing - Double Plays - Field Errors = HOKE

Note:  One thing the above formula doesn't take into account is bases that a player moves up but doesn't account for an RBI.  Also although we add total bases for an RBI we are not taking bases away if the player doesn't get a hit when a runner is in scoring position.

An additional step was that I took the MLB Hoke and divided this number of possible HOKE (Total Plate Appearances x 4 bases).  This percentage (15.1%) became 100 and then I scored each of the players to get a HOKE+ number which makes 100 average.  So for instance Holliday had 501 HOKE and 623 plate appearances (or 2,492 possible HOKE) which gave him a percentage of 20.1% or 135 HOKE+.  See the chart below for this year's offensive prowness (compared to last year's).  HOKE, followed by HOKE (or base) per plate appearance, HOKE+, RC or Runs Created, WPA, and WS or Win Shares (a win is worth 3 win shares).

In regards to Matt's trade and Atkins impending trade it is going to be tough to lose 931 bases (or 36 win shares...that is 12 wins!).  

Postscript:  In googling Travis Hoke, I came across this article.  Written by the man himself he does have an interesting thing to say about his counting of bases, "I had realized by then that it was not accurate to credit a hitter with one unit for each base, because all bases are not equally important.  It is more than twice as valuable to the team, for instance, to hit a double than a single, because a man on second is in position to score on a following single.  It is more valuable to hit safely with a man on second that with one on first, and there should be recognition of the difference, in the figures.  So I had revised the system to fit.  If a man singled with the bases empty he was credited with one—from home to first counted one base—but from first to second counted two bases, so that if he doubled he received credit for three, not two bases.  A triple got him six bases, and so on.  A home run with the bases empty meant ten out of a possible ten bases."  So it would appear that Hoke had his doubts about the simplicity of the system.  I think a base is a base.  People with more bases tend to be better players so I'm sticking with it.  As Hoke says this game is called baseball and thus the base in its singularity is the ultimate essence of what it means to play this game...the offensive tries to get them and the pitcher tries to prevent them!  Doesn't it make sense to have a stat that compares apples to apples...not week I will throw up the Pitching HOKE....

Ian Flemming - For Your Eyes Only

Collection of short stories including View to a Kill, For Your Eyes Only, Hillebrand Rarity,  Risico, and of course Quantum of Solace.  Personally I think the movie poster from For Your Eyes Only was far and away the best 007 movie poster!  Most movies have nothing to do with the books Fleming wrote and admittedly the stories don't make great movies.  The character seems to have developed a persona all its own based on very little from what Fleming meant for the character.  Anyway always interesting and a bit intriguing to read the real character.

Haiku Wednesday

Duty

Your moral compass

Commitment to higher cause

Do acts of greatness

Yes We Can!

Wow!  A defining moment in American History.  The ascension of a black man to the America's highest office when only 50 years ago black people were still considered second class citizens.  In my own timeline I can think of only 2 other times when the sheer emotions of the moment overwhelmed me (Destruction of the space shuttle Columbia and 9-11).  Thankfully for this night it was emotion of joy and expectation.  Joy that we are moving beyond the last 8 years of fear and indecision and expectation that tomorrow my kids have a brighter outlook and live in a world where once again America is a place where anything can happen.  A place that shows the world we are still a beacon of hope and that democracy can work when given the chance.

Certainly we can celebrate today but a daunting reality will face our new President come January.  Trust in our country and the world needs to be returned.  Perhaps sacrifices will have to be made.  Can America move beyond the pettiness of electoral differences and get behind one man?  For the benefit of the country and the world?  Is sacrifice even in our vocabulary anymore?  It is easy to vote for change but are you willing to change your behavior?    There is a small 2 year window on this experiment of change.  If progress is not made and fear continues to grip the populace I think we begin to go back to where we came from.  We must be positive, we must hope, but ultimately we must do....and doing is always the hardest part (I think Yoda might have said it best...).

Rox Talk

Back in June I was playing around with a stat I called Total Base Plus.  See the below link for my early definition of such a stat.  

http://purpleroxsquad.blogspot.com/2008/06/stat-of-week_11.html

Since then I read Alan Schwarz - The Numbers Game and realized my little exercise on total bases was put to use in 1915 by Travis Hoke, who rated players by counting the number of bases their hits accounted for, not just for themselves but the advancement of any base runner!  So perhaps instead of calling it Total Base Plus perhaps I should call it Total Hoke's or TH.  Either way in my efforts to determine total bases I realized there was no good way to determine advancement of a runner.  Easiest stat to try and determine an estimate of this would be the RBI.  Although RBI doesn't account for a batter getting a single and moving a batter into scoring position thus allowing the following batter the ability to hit a single and get this RBI.  So with my early estimate I used a value of 2 bases per RBI.  For 2008 I decided to calculate in actual

 number for the Rockies this year.  I used the following table.  Obviously a runner on third and with an RBI obtained then the batter gets one base.  Bases loaded home run would give the batter 6 total bases (note the HR gives an RBI to the batter but is already counted in the HR total so the four bases are not counted in the RBI).

So what does the 2008 Roxs look like:

So on average a RBI is worth 1.75 total bases.  So Atkins who had 99 RBIs (78 actual ones) got a total of 146 total bases or an average of 1.87 bases per RBI.  Not for sure what the rate really means.  If you look on the low end it is mostly pitchers and single hitters.  Anyway that is that.  In addition to this you can also rate the pitchers the same way.  One thing I don't do is give bases to pitchers who left a man on then was relieved for another pitcher.  My way of thinking is that pitcher gave up the hit which allowed the RBI so the bases would go to the reliever.

College Football

Two good wins for AF since the last post. Last Thursday game against New Mexico snuck up on me. The Force stands at 6-2 for the season with 4 to play. Off to West Point for tomorrow's game. Hopefully we can salvage a game for the C&C trophy. Again pretty disappointing that we can't secure the trophy from winning this game. As usual this should be a close fought game. I expect to come out on top with a 21 - 17 victory. With the next opponent being CSU we could sneak into the BYU game at 8-2! Not bad for a freshman led team.

Two weeks ago fun and exciting look included: W Michigan and Central Michigan (Central is the king!) Vandy and UGA (Vandy can't get over the hump or out from between the hedges) Big time Big Ten match up of Ohio St and Michigan St (pathetic play by MSU allows for easy win for Ohio State).

This week's notorious match ups: Kansas and Kansas St (battle for the corn?), hey its W versus E in Michigan (wonder if central plays east?), key preseason basketball match up for Duke and Wake Forest (oh yeah be more interesting if it was B-ball!), and finally a once proud conflict between Oklahoma and Nebraska (maybe in a few years).

Ernest Hemingway - True at First Light

Boy reading the reviews on this one was interesting.  Not alot of love for this one.  I mean I thought it was typical Hemingway.  Beautiful in parts, frustrating at times, and pure Hero.  I thought it was interesting that the reviewers mostly criticized his estate for attempting to bring this book to print.  I guess it was shorten from 800 pages of rambling to this novel.  Anyway it was interesting to read Hemingway writing about himself and using his typical male characteristics to describe himself.  I do have to wonder if his women really talk the way he says.  Because that would be crazy.  Anyway I thought the book was worth my time.

Haiku Wednesday

Voting

Your civic duty

What our forefathers fought for

Taken for granted

One Week to Go....Thank God

As a baseball lover, Nate Silver and his PECOTA projections have always been a useful way to try out the upcoming season.  As an owner of Baseball Prospectus he certainly has my eye.  So what should I find in my daily roaming but a website called fivethirtyeight,  http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Developed by the Nate it is an extensive look at the upcoming election and the numerous polls that are produced.  As someone who appears to be a neutral and evaluates the data on statistics I would hope that the data he provides is the clearest indication of what we might expect next week.  I thought it would be neat to take a snapshot today and see what actually happens next week.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the Senate.  With the potential of a 2/3s majority looming it could be a slam dunk.  It will also make the 2010 elections a potential flipflop like 1994 if the Democrats don't get their stuff together and prove that they deserve to be the leading party.  Should be interesting...

Rox Talk

World Series Update

Still playing Game 5.  What a mess...rain, rain, everywhere.  Whoever wins this series certainly won't have the umpires to thank.  I can think of a couple of instances, the miscall at 1B between Moyer and Howard, Rollins getting hit in the jersey and not being given first base, the goofy strike out call and then the Ray batter getting ball 4, and Rollins getting tagged at third and being called safe. I think Joe Morgan said last night on the radio that the calls have been split 3-3 but still alot of mistake calls that did ultimately lead to runs scored.

Update:  Boy is Selig the unluckiest man in the world.  Everytime baseball tries it takes 8 steps backwards.  I mean first it was the all-star blunder now this...man they say baseball and American history go hand in hand and let's hope next week goes smoother than this!

Rox Update

Well the word is out that Holliday is officially on the trading block.  A bit surprising as it seems that for the right price Atkins is also available.  Pitching is king but losing 196 runs when the teamed underachieved this year could be a bit much.  Granted Stewart appears ready but you are counting on Fowler moving up (see Nix last year) and Helton coming back stronger than ever (highly unlikely at 36?).  Appears Vizcaino had some alcohol issues and he still has one year left on his deal.  

Management has made some talk that last year's team came unglued during spring training when they couldn't get Holliday signed for a home town discount.  Think they want to go through that again?  Personally I would keep him and Atkins and try for the division.  If at the All Star break there no improvement then unload (granted you won't get as good of prospects but at least your not entering a new year with loads of untested youth).  Another thing to note is the economy and professional sports.  My guess is that contracts might be hard to find next year.  If I was a betting man, I will say attendance will plummet next year.  Small market teams will certainly be a bit more cautious in trying to sign anyone long term.  I think the Roxs would do well to get rid of someone who is all about the money.  The money Holliday would command would certainly not hand tie the Roxs long term (see Helton think we should give Holliday a 6 year deal?).  Lets face it, the Roxs spend like a small market so we shouldn't be surprised but they better do better with pitching or the boo birds will come out whining that we are simply player development for the big boys.

This Week in Comics

Daredevil #112

Plot thickens? or muddies?  Not for sure why the Hand is resurfacing and looking to spank Daredevil and his merry band of kung fu fighting friends (tarantula...who the heck is that?).  Hey Dakota is still in the mix...when does she get to do some butt kicking?  Looks like next issue is the beat down hopefully there is more than just a teaser with the Lady melting into the background and nothing meaningful happens to our heroes.

Captain America #43

A filler issue!  What is up with that and why do all these heroes seem to be on Viagra?  I mean Bucky and Natasha (Dakota and Daredevil, see above), and Cyclops and whoever is most kinky this week.  What is in the Marvel Universe's water or maybe should I say what is up with balding old married men writing this stuff?  A sex therapist would have a field day commenting on what is being translated on the pages...

Secret Invasion #7

Almost there, almost there...stay on target...Pretty decent issue which should be interesting to see how this all resolves.  I am still thinking that Bendis is really going to leave a big giant mess that will make all of us angry (see House of M).  Love Spider-Man's comment about Uatu.  Luke Cage and Jessica were cute (she is a pathetic superhero..).  Bet there baby is sacrificed or something and the New Avengers will have the old team back in business (oh year Iron Man will make a dramatic re-entrance.

Ultimate Spider-Man #127

I thought this was Carnage and Venom.  Really kind of boring.  Art still good but what happens to Gwen.  Bendis needs to kick it up a notch this series has been slowwwwww

Haiku Wednesday

Spirits

Meandering souls
They go bump into the night
restless, uncontent

Greg Rucka - Whiteout

Okay what can I say...I seem to have a man crush on Rucka's writings!  I mean Tara Chace has been good so why not?  Have to admit what got me interesting in this book was a free comic book that I got on free comic book day.  It was the first issue and it was pretty good.  I mean honestly if you can write a murder mystery on a landmass with more penguins then people than you probably can write anything.  Difficult main character to like...definitely opposite of Tara.  If you think Tara is a female Bond then Carrie is like Commissioner Gordan.  Not terribly lovable but tough in an antarctic sort of way.  Have to try and dig up Book 2.  Still trying to track down Book 3 of the definitive Queen and Country.

Rox Talk

Not much in the way of actual Rox talk since the end of the season.  Fall out continues on the dugout changes.  Really not a whole lot on the coaches but seems there is quite a lot of bad blood on the strength conditioning coach.  Little odd.  I think ultimately that a manager type will play second fiddle to Hurdle so if the Roxs start slow next season there will be an immediate hook and replacement of our not so favorite manager.  

On to playoff talk.  Now that all the preliminaries are over let's get on to the World Series.  Bit surprised by the dominance of the Rays (although they got a tired White Sox team and an injured tired Red Sox team).  HTis should give all the small market teams some hope even though it appears to take on average 10 years of good drafting to make a quality playoff ready team.  The Rays certainly showed some resilience after a devastating Game 5 lost (see below):

The Rays were 7 outs away and were at the time 99.4% likely to win the game.  So much for statistics.  For the third time in a row it looked like the Sox were going to do it but no magic in Game 7 this year (although the bases were loaded in the 8th with Drew at the plate).  While over in the senior circuit the Phillies dismantled the Dodgers who made mincemeat of the Cubs.  Amazing how one series can be so different from the other.  One thing I have to call BS on is the continued love for Manny.  Everyone on the radio kept falling over themselves on how great Manny is when he is behind in the count.  Well if you check out baseball reference  his average is 0.194 with 0-2 (0.173 NL avg), average 0.216 with 1-2 (0.187), and average 0.265 with 2-2 (0.202). With 2 strikes he is batting 0.226 (0.185).  Of course with and 3-0 count he is only batting 0.165 (0.290).   So whatever...

So with the Phillies heading to Tampa for an East Coast showdown what can we expect?  History has shown that Tampa hasn't been too good for Philly franchises having the Flyers and Eagles both being defeated by Bay area teams recently. Obviously this match up doesn't have alot of "must see" TV although I do think that these are representative teams that deserve to be there (the Cubs probably more so in the NL). Since both teams pounded there opponents, my guess is that we will have close games decided by monstrous home run.  Teams are pretty evenly matched. Both have good starters although Tampa probably has a better 4th starter (and no Moyer). Phillies bullpen has been better in the playoffs (see Game 5 above). Offensives have both been on. Tampa has the advantage of being the home team (thanks to Hurdle) and yet Philly probably has a more passionate fan base. Tampa won the best division in baseball and yet Philly has 2 reigning NL MVPs (possibly a third...). AL has been dominant over the years yet the Rays are an extremely young team who has to come back from an emotional ALCS. Phillies had a long wait and might come out flat (i.e. like the Roxs). The Rays lose a bat when going to Philly. Manual vs Maddon? Cheesesteak vs Fishstick(?) Franchise with the most losses of any professional team vs team with its season's first winning record? Liberty Bell vs Pirate Ship?

Bottom Line: Phillies in 6