Random Nonsense

Slow week, traveling haven't really been up to much, so it is random post day...

Pulled this screen shot off the new Forced Unleashed trailer. Thought it was a bit risque for the Lucas crowd. Guess they think that a little T&A will go a long way with the video game crowd...of course if they could just make a good game.

While looking for some E.R. Burroughs ebooks (public domain stuff) couldn't find his Venus stuff here but wikipedia indicated that the copyright has expired in Australia and that you could get books there...hmmm (found Gone With the Wind, too) and we wonder why the whole DRM, who owns what, and copyright seems to be all messed up...

Read alot about Twitter but frankly what does it do for you. Do we all have time just to write little snippets about our life...bigger question is who cares?

Forget Olivia Munn what about Blair Butler?

Why does the new Clone Wars movie look and feel so much better than the Episodes I, II, and III?

You know I was trying to find a webpage to explain how the different dice work in D&D and you know I can't find anything...what is up with that?

Nostalgia for the week...I downloaded Top Gun and Purple Rain off of iTunes!

And with that note I am outta of here

Haiku Wednesday

Heat

Scorching rays of sun
Shimmering on the blacktop
Sweating hot to touch

Pitches = Run

A couple of weeks ago I was listening to the Rockies radio broadcast team, Jeff and Jack, and Jack Corigan made the statement that basically said that as your (i.e. the pitcher) pitch count increases in the inning the more likely a run is going to be scored. From the sound of this it made me go hmmm. Two questions immediately popped up...1) is this true (logically you would think yes) and 2) what is on average the amount of pitches thrown in an inning that would allow a single run?

Well off to baseball reference where on their box score page they show the amount of pitches thrown in an inning along with the number of runs. By taking this data and plotting the number of pitches per inning, the runs scored for that number of pitches, and annotating in a running log how often this number of pitches occur in an inning, I was able to come up with the number of pitches thrown in 2008 by Rockies pitchers and what is the average number of pitches thrown to allow for one run in an inning (i.e., a 12 pitch inning occurred 81 times and a total of 12 runs were scored when 12 pitches were thrown in an inning or a rate of 0.12 runs). This is through Game 108 and I am missing about 7 runs (end of the season I will go back and tighten this up).

Graphically all this data looks like this:

This first plot shows the number of pitches versus the total runs. The size of the circle indicates how often this number of pitches were thrown. The next plot shows the distribution which indicates that 12 and 13 pitches were thrown in an inning approximately 161 times or accounting for about 17% of the total innings pitched..

The final plot shows the rate at which runs are scored. So for instance 26 pitches in an inning occurred 17 times and a total of 32 runs were scored. Thus giving a rate of 1.88 runs scored when 26 pitches are thrown. If you plot this rate you get this...

A relatively nice curve that has a Rsquare of about 0.79 (if you throw out two of the outliers you get upwards of 0.86). If you take the equation and solve for 1 you get approximately 20.6 pitches.

So there you have it...it does appear has you throw more pitches in an inning the likely of runs being scored increases. Follow on questions would be 1) what would the major league curve look like accounting for every pitch? and 2) could you establish pitcher effectiveness based on this (i.e., Cook has thrown 2,134 pitches this year, divided by 20.6 would indicate he should have given up 104 runs but presently he is at 64 allowed also he has averaged 13.9 pitches an inning which would equate to a rate of 0.47 runs per inning, he's pitched 154 innings so that equates to about 72 runs...)

Rox Talk

A 5-1 week with a sweep of the Reds and 2 of 3 from the Dodgers (which by the way is kind of a dumb name for a baseball team). The offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders. Of course playing the likes of the Pirates and Reds isn't exactly like facing the good teams. The Roxs currently stand at 48-58. Six games back from division leading D-backs in third place. Currently 31-22 at home and 17-36 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 495-539 (expected wins is 49 versus historical wins at 49). On pace for 73 wins with 757 runs scored and 824 runs against.

Weekly WPA leaders (overall as well):

Baker has been an animal the last two weeks and U-ball too. These two have thrown the Roxs on their backs and said let's make a run. With 56 games to go (6 back), do the Roxs have enough time to catch the D-bags? Starting pitching has been good. The last two weeks have seen the offense go into overdrive and the relief corps has been shutting teams down. Lots of games against the teams ahead of us. Will there be time? My guess is that the trade deadline will come and go and the Roxs will stand pat. Maybe Atkins will be dealt for a pitcher? It would allow Stewart to take over third and Baker a permanent spot at first until of if Helton comes back. Taveras would be a good throw in too as I believe Spilborghs and Fowler could take over center. An exciting time in baseball!

This Week in Comics

Uncanny X-men #500

Not quite the issue I was looking forward too. Very disjointed and not really a celebration issue at all. More of a lead in. Lots of pages but it really looked like it was done by two authors and two artists and Marvel just kind of threw it together. Kind of lame appearance by a robotic Magneto. Come on with a milestone issue like this make it a bang don't just bring out the same old! Only thing going for all of this is is that the next storyline looks good.

Daredevil #108

Dakota shot! Oh no can this be the end of our third rate superless power heroine? Will Daredevil save her or will she be secreted away and given a lease on life. Does she become the new Bullseye? I jest but sometimes I wish someone would just write outlandish stuff!

New Avengers #43
I love the backstory stuff but in 15 years will anyone be able to pick this book up and figure out what the heck is going on in these past couple of issues. I mean talking about a continuity headache. I wish Secret Invasion came out every 2 weeks. A 6 month event just ruins the other books.

The Small Things...

7-11s what perfect little outlets for all your needs. Hmmm slurpees...who says America hasn't invented some great stuff!

nps.gov/grsa - pinyon flats campground

ka-bar.com - a real army knife...had one during survival training...good stuff

Physicist Garrett Lisi - The Theory of Everything or how to piss of string theorist!

Phoenix and the sun never sets...beautiful

Haiku Wednesday

Colorado

Endless snow capped peaks
Grand vistas, endless grasslands
The maker's canvas

We Are Just a Small Orb...

Wow just a great view! My first movie post. i couldn't help it. Just watching the moon pass across the Earth is just so beautiful and stunning and wow! Just think if you were out there on a ship watching this happen...

Rox Talk

A 4-0 series sweep of the Pirates to lead off the second half of the season (more like last third). The Roxs currently stand at 43-57. Six games back from division leading D-backs in third place. Yikes how did the NL West get so bad? We had the best two teams in the NL championship series! What is up with that? Currently 29-21 at home and 14-36 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 447-516 (expected wins is 43 versus historical wins at 47). On pace for 70 wins with 724 runs scored and 836 runs against.

Weekly WPA leaders (overall as well):

Amazing what a week of wins! Nice sweep. Have to admit Holliday is putting together a nice season. Too bad everyone else is in the gutter!

Wanted

Okay so did anyone think that this was Angelina's response to her husband's Fight Club? I mean honestly the voice overs, the talking to the audience, the what the f$%k have you done comment. It was your basic summer action film slotted in with Commando, Predator, and any other Arnold movie. Is Jolie the new Arnold? Anyone pointless plot and sillier bullet moves but good action and a nice view of Angelina's backside. The real question would be how many of those tattoo's are her real ones?

This Week in Comics

Mighty Avengers #15

Bendis continues with back stories. OK so going back in time to see how this all started is neat, but I am finding it is starting to produce some more questions like the big one....where are the original heroes?

Captain America #40

Not exactly a great fight between the old and the new, the better story was Sharon and her trying to escape and what exactly Skull has in store for her.

X-Force #5

There seems to me that I missed an issue somewhere along the way. Something is way wrong when you read the start of the book and realize something that is going on wasn't what you remembered. Maybe I am just not reading the issue all that closely but honestly it is crazy.

Haiku Wednesday

Frontier

Go beyond the known
Live outside your comfort zone
It's human nature

Edgar Rice Burroughs - Gods of Mars

Book 2 in ERB's barsoom series. Wow I love these books. For sure Saturday afternoon popcorn these books are high adventure, suspense, romance, and a thrill to read. The pulpiness of it all makes it so over the top that it is good. Some writer's try to be too serious sometimes about their work. Perhaps ERB was trying to be serious but I think he probably enjoyed writing this series as much as I enjoy reading them. I am anxious to continue on in my dissection of this great American tale. Next stop the Warlord of Mars.

Rox Talk

A 2-4 road trip against the Brewers and Mets (is it me or does it seem we have played the Mets alot this year?). The All-Star break is here. The Roxs currently stand at 39-57. Eight and half games back from division leading D-backs in fourth place. Currently 25-21 at home and 14-36 on the road (on pace for only 23 wins which would be the worst in franchise history), the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 419-507 (expected wins is 40 versus historical wins at 45). On pace for 66 wins with 707 runs scored and 856 runs against.

Weekly WPA leaders (overall as well):

Sigh, the week before we have an offensive explosion and this week in NY we get shutout in back to back games and in one game we get only one hit. For a team which generated so much offense last year it is maddening that the hits just aren't coming. Alas last year was last year and teams that tend to progress forward in one year tend to come back to earth the next but in a year when the division is certainly winable it is tough to shallow that we missed a chance to repeat. Big question will be who is here and gone in August. My guess is that Fuentes and Podsednik are gone, perhaps Herges as well. I also think Holliday will be here this year and probably get dealt this winter. We shall see and is this the end of Helton?

This Week in Comics

Invincible Iron Man #3
Dude how can you hurt the Pepper? Come on now you can't go there unless you are planning on her wearing the suit (?) Or hey how about a War Machine, Iron Man, and Fembot attack group...girrrr don't mind me!

Powers #29

Finally some issues resolved. God this whole long winded series as been just painful. I realize that you can't have the Bruce/Cybil and Mulder/Scully thing going on for too long but this has gone on way too long. This book has always been about these two cops and with them apart is just isn't too much fun. Yeah I know the book has to grow but this growing pain has really taken alot from the book.






Buffy the Vampire Slayer #16

Who the hell is Fray? Why do I care...ughhh this series is slowly going into too much fandom. Josh please write some stories that mean something to all of us. These are some great characters!

Secret Invasion #4
Kind of a filler issue for this series. Nothing of real note. I am tired of the 50 versions of Cap running around. Nick Fury is a bad ass...his character has gone up in my book. Hopefully we get to some good cliff hangers in #5. Keep the momentum Bendis!

Batman #678
I must be stupid because I have no ideal what Morrison is doing with the Bat. Again Morrison is best read in the past when you can see the whole story. His randomness just has no continuity. You go one way and the swerve to the next meanwhile just not knowing what the f$%k is going on.

Astonishing X-men #25
Big disappointment...Ellis ain't no Josh and this book ain't worth it anymore. I like that it was sort of out of continuity and was just a place to write good X-stories. But running this into continuity is just blah. I don't need another X-book what I need is one decently written X-book. Ughhhh

Alan Schwarz - The Numbers Game

Great book at least through 109 pages. After that it got mired in the Bill James saga, stat politics, and stathead GMs. I mean it was a good read but I was really fascinated with history (pre-1980) stats and how alot of good stuff was done. Obviously today we are living in a stat driven baseball world with scouts taking a back seat but I was a bit surprised how stats have always been knocking at the door. It isn't just a computer revolution although I believe the ease today of running numbers and simulations certainly has contributed to the stats leading the way. Interesting notes:

- Ferdinand Lane 1915 determined that singles were worth 0.457 runs, doubles 0.786, triples 1.15, homers 1.55, and walks 0.164. These numbers almost matched up with Pete Palmers linear weights done almost 60 years later. Good review here.

- Upon reading this book I realized that everything we think we just discovered as already been proposed at some time in the past. My little exercise on total bases was put to use in 1915 by Travis Hoke, who rated players by counting the number of bases their hits accounted for, not just for themselves but the advancement of any base runner!

- You know that baseball is the only sport without a clock...never really thought about that!

- During research it was found that Lou Proctor, a phantom player, who had a line in The Baseball Encyclopedia was a Western Union telegraph operator who inserted himself into the box score

- Defense Independent Pitching Stats

- The Sinister First Baseman, book of observations telling one is that managers shouldn't play to a gut feeling rather they should stick to a plan. They often allow their judgment to be blown this way and that by each and every short-term run of luck...Like the shrewd and winning player at any game involving odds, the successful baseball manager must discover the optimum long range strategy, grit his teeth, and stick to it, in all situations.

- Often wonder why 100 pitches seems to be the reason to take a starter out? Well Keith Woolner confirmed a correlation between starts above 100 pitches, particulary those above 120, and subsequent slumps and blown out arms.

- Red Sox's secret weapon? Susan Reynolds? She did a study on Boston weather over the last 100 years...hmmm she isn't very noteworthy as googling her really doesn't find much

First Time?

Feeling a bit nostalgic (Fraction's quote in Wizard made me think about it) and decided to throw out my first comic book. Way back in October 1986 X-Factor issue number 9. At first I kind of stayed away from the Uncanny title. I was feeling a bit snobbish with the "new" X-Team and decided to stick with the originals. Got right into the whole Mutant Massacre storyline with fantastic art by Walt Simonson. Have to admit though I started to collect Uncanny about 4 months later. Anyway loved the X uniforms and enjoyed the Jean/Maddie/Scott triangle. All this laying the groundwork of what was to become Inferno which to me probably was the apex, with a brief excitement during the Jim Lee era. The latest storyline that just concluded in the x-books was probably the closest I felt to a good storyline. Writer's need to keep it fresh!

Haiku Wednesday

Cherries

luscious, delicious
Dark red, firm texture, sweet taste
Watch out for the pit!

Roger Kahn - Memories of Summer

Good primer on baseball in NY during probably the greatest time to be a baseball fan. Told mostly from a Dodgers point of view it does touch on the Yanks and Giants and goes into some detail with Mantle and Mays. Overall a good trip down baseball memory lane. Kahn doesn't go easy on making Mantle a likeable character. I was somewhat surprised by the bluntness of negatives on the mystique that one usually holds for past Yanks. Any way good read for baseball lovers.

"Cox wore a cheap, black, shappy glove. Shappy and magical. He stabbed backhand and trapped the drive between his black glove adn the brown infield earth. Martin strained toward first, hoping to beat out a hit. Cox waited and looked at the baseball. It was signed byb Warren Giles. Hope swelled in Martin's breast. Cox gunned down the yound Yankee by half a step."

Rox Talk

A 5-2 home stand against the Padres and Marlins. What a Jekyll and Hyde team, a team of streaks. Only consistent thing about this team is how consistent it wins or loses! Crazy thing is that they are in 4th place only 7 games out of first place! After some wacky games against the Marlins it would appear the offense is finally ticking. Maybe some starting pitching consistency and could we make a run? Give the team a beacon of hope and just maybe... The Roxs currently stand at 37-52. Seven games back from division leading D-backs in fourth place. Currently 25-21 at home and 12-31 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 402-471 (expected wins is 38 versus historical wins at 42). On pace for 67 wins with 732 runs scored and 857 runs against.

Weekly WPA leaders (overall as well): Big week on the offensive front. Especially at the top of the line-up with Spilborghs, Atkins,and Holliday. Not much from the pitching staff this past week. Once again a big ughhh with Corpas and Tulo. Not so good!

Sea Dogs

It's the mini-monster! Actually I think it might be real sized but it serves as the backdrop to a really nice minor league park in Portland, Maine and home to the Sea Dogs, the Red Sox AA affiliate. Got lucky and got some decent seats 4 rows behind the visitor's dugout. The Sea Dogs were facing the Reading Phillies. Good game, great family atmosphere, and a pretty decent fireworks display.

Call of the Sea

Spent a nice couple of days in Portland, Maine. What a wonderful little sea town. I love being near the ocean. That salty decay smell, the sea gulls chirping, the gentle breezes, and that wave lapping sound. It is a sensory bouillabaisse! Great outdoorsy town with alot of good food (Lobster!) and some decent beer (blueberry ale anyone?).

USS Constitution and USS Nautilus

Being an Air Force kind of guy I had to bite my tongue that I went and visited two Navy ships over my vacation! The USS Constitution is an institution so that was ok. Amazing to think that the ship is still in the Navy's fleet of ships. It is still manned by real naval personnel. She is being retrofitted at the moment, so no sailing. Good book ideal...use Old Ironsides to save the day...kind of a last resort

Next stop was the Nautilus. The world's first nuclear powered submarine. Fascinating tour as you got to go on board and get a first hand feel. I was bummed that they didn't show the reactor room and at least a replica of what the first reactor looked like. Also it would be curious to see what the medical records look like from that first crew. Nuclear navy was an amazing technical leap forward at the time and this ship was certainly an amazing engineering feat. Just being on it and getting the feel of the ship, I get the same awe inspiring of when I look at the Apollo project. To me in the late 50s and 60s the technological leaps that were made were simply amazing. Took some guts to get on some of the ships back in the day.

Haiku Wednesday

Tents

Home away from home
Zippered, nylon contraption
How sharp are bear's claws?

From Vacation

In Boston so posts will be sporadic at best. On plane trip did read this which I thought summed up things pretty well:

Wizard Magazine quote about the X-men as told by the new writer, Matt Fraction, "Every X-men fan loves whatever their first encounter--their first real love affair with the book--that to them in their mind, that was the best." How true how true...

So yup issue 217 was it for me. Personally the best team is below: