I have a sister site called box score haiku in which I wrote a haiku for every 2008 Colorado Rockies game. For posterity, I compiled a version of the box score haiku into a paperback book. The cover is below...
You can buy it here....
11.15.2008
11.14.2008
College Football
Once again I missed a weekend. Not for sure where the time goes but AF beat up on CSU last weekend and is 8-2 going into the last two games against BYU and TCU. All is all a good season regardless of the final two games. Certainly a chance tomorrow at home against BYU but with history on BYU's side I would imagine it will be a long tomorrow. Then a final game at TCU. Maybe we can win one and finish 9 - 3. Anyway you cut it, it was another strong showing the only real disappointment was the loss to Navy. Keep the fingers crossed that we get to go bowling again this year. Anyway I think AF will be tough tomorrow but end up on the wrong side with a 30 - 17 loss.
Two weeks ago notorious match ups: Kansas beat up on Kansas St (king corn), W beats E in Michigan, key preseason basketball match up for Duke and Wake Forest (with Wake Forest winning in OT with a 3 pointer), and finally a once proud conflict between Oklahoma and Nebraska with Oklahoma head and shoulders above their northern cousin.
This week's gun and fun has Notre Dame hoping to sink Navy (have to root for my brethren on this one), Minnesota and Wisconsin...the battle of lakes and freezing temps, New Mexico St and Fresno St (which by the way, what state is Fresno?)
11.13.2008
Belated Birthday - Apollo Saturn V
The greatest engineering feat in the 20th century. Hmmm I wonder what the greatest engineering feat in the previous 19 centuries were...(Eiffel Tower for the 19th Century). Something to think about...
Anyway I read somewhere, I can't remember where, that there was a fact that suppose the Saturn V had 10,000,000 parts and assuming the reliability was at 99.9999 then there would still be 9 equipment failures. The fact that only one mission had a potential disaster was truly remarkable. Standing in at 363 feet it is the largest rocket ever launched. Although I believe the Soviet's Energia had more pounds per thrust (?). Marvelous creation and amazing that it took only 6 - 7 years to conceive.
11.12.2008
11.11.2008
Election Recap
Well Nate Silver with the help of an overabundant amount of stats probably came the closest in predicting who won the election. At a week to go he had the election at 351 to 187. The final outcome was above. I believe the only difference was Obama winning Indiana which had a slight edge to McCain. Amazing look at an election and because he is a baseball guy I have to give him kudos!
11.10.2008
Rox Talk
Holliday Gone...
In a trade with the Oakland A's, the Roxs finally part ways with Holliday and in return get 23 year old outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, 24 year old left hand pitcher Greg Smith, and 25 right hand reliever Huston Street. After last week, it became apparent that Holliday had no desire to re-sign with the Roxs and due to the fighting words between management and Holliday any sort of leverage the Roxs might have kind of faded away. I think this was a better trade for what the Cardinals were offering but youth is always tricky and you have to think why Mr Moneyball gave away these players. The key to this trade had to be Street has a back up to Corpas and set up man. Smith becomes another log jam pitcher for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation. Gonzalez is a young star that is probably iffy. I for one am not disappointed by Holliday's departure...see post here.
I think Holliday is one of those players simply out for the contract. And that is ok. I can't begrudge a person with the ability to hit a little ball who wants to go for the gusto. That is part of baseball but in this case I would say be careful what you wish for because you aren't always guaranteed the limelight...you might get traded to a team with no more upside then the team you are leaving. With the Angels in the AL West, I just don't see Holliday going to anymore playoffs then hanging out with the Roxs. The interesting question is what did Mr Moneyball see in this deal? Certainly he doesn't have the long-term cash...but perhaps he see Holliday as a 2009 trade deadline bonaza to a team like the Yankees who want to win now and will give up the moon and stars to get another bat (?). Have fun in Oakland Matt and thanks for the "Slide"...you will always be a Rox Star in Denver.
2008 Offensive Hoke
In last week's post on the Rox, I went through a study to find the total bases that a player got when counting their RBIs. In earlier studies, I simply picked a number which I estimated to be around 2. In determining my "Hoke" I established the formula of:
Total Bases (1B, 2B, 3B, HR) + RBI (minus HR) * RBI base factor (see last week's post) + Hit By Pitch + Walk + Stolen Base - Caught Stealing - Double Plays - Field Errors = HOKE
Note: One thing the above formula doesn't take into account is bases that a player moves up but doesn't account for an RBI. Also although we add total bases for an RBI we are not taking bases away if the player doesn't get a hit when a runner is in scoring position.
An additional step was that I took the MLB Hoke and divided this number of possible HOKE (Total Plate Appearances x 4 bases). This percentage (15.1%) became 100 and then I scored each of the players to get a HOKE+ number which makes 100 average. So for instance Holliday had 501 HOKE and 623 plate appearances (or 2,492 possible HOKE) which gave him a percentage of 20.1% or 135 HOKE+. See the chart below for this year's offensive prowness (compared to last year's). HOKE, followed by HOKE (or base) per plate appearance, HOKE+, RC or Runs Created, WPA, and WS or Win Shares (a win is worth 3 win shares).
In regards to Matt's trade and Atkins impending trade it is going to be tough to lose 931 bases (or 36 win shares...that is 12 wins!).
Postscript: In googling Travis Hoke, I came across this article. Written by the man himself he does have an interesting thing to say about his counting of bases, "I had realized by then that it was not accurate to credit a hitter with one unit for each base, because all bases are not equally important. It is more than twice as valuable to the team, for instance, to hit a double than a single, because a man on second is in position to score on a following single. It is more valuable to hit safely with a man on second that with one on first, and there should be recognition of the difference, in the figures. So I had revised the system to fit. If a man singled with the bases empty he was credited with one—from home to first counted one base—but from first to second counted two bases, so that if he doubled he received credit for three, not two bases. A triple got him six bases, and so on. A home run with the bases empty meant ten out of a possible ten bases." So it would appear that Hoke had his doubts about the simplicity of the system. I think a base is a base. People with more bases tend to be better players so I'm sticking with it. As Hoke says this game is called baseball and thus the base in its singularity is the ultimate essence of what it means to play this game...the offensive tries to get them and the pitcher tries to prevent them! Doesn't it make sense to have a stat that compares apples to apples...not week I will throw up the Pitching HOKE....
11.06.2008
Ian Flemming - For Your Eyes Only
Collection of short stories including View to a Kill, For Your Eyes Only, Hillebrand Rarity, Risico, and of course Quantum of Solace. Personally I think the movie poster from For Your Eyes Only was far and away the best 007 movie poster! Most movies have nothing to do with the books Fleming wrote and admittedly the stories don't make great movies. The character seems to have developed a persona all its own based on very little from what Fleming meant for the character. Anyway always interesting and a bit intriguing to read the real character.
11.05.2008
11.04.2008
Yes We Can!
Wow! A defining moment in American History. The ascension of a black man to the America's highest office when only 50 years ago black people were still considered second class citizens. In my own timeline I can think of only 2 other times when the sheer emotions of the moment overwhelmed me (Destruction of the space shuttle Columbia and 9-11). Thankfully for this night it was emotion of joy and expectation. Joy that we are moving beyond the last 8 years of fear and indecision and expectation that tomorrow my kids have a brighter outlook and live in a world where once again America is a place where anything can happen. A place that shows the world we are still a beacon of hope and that democracy can work when given the chance.
Certainly we can celebrate today but a daunting reality will face our new President come January. Trust in our country and the world needs to be returned. Perhaps sacrifices will have to be made. Can America move beyond the pettiness of electoral differences and get behind one man? For the benefit of the country and the world? Is sacrifice even in our vocabulary anymore? It is easy to vote for change but are you willing to change your behavior? There is a small 2 year window on this experiment of change. If progress is not made and fear continues to grip the populace I think we begin to go back to where we came from. We must be positive, we must hope, but ultimately we must do....and doing is always the hardest part (I think Yoda might have said it best...).
11.03.2008
Rox Talk
Back in June I was playing around with a stat I called Total Base Plus. See the below link for my early definition of such a stat.
Since then I read Alan Schwarz - The Numbers Game and realized my little exercise on total bases was put to use in 1915 by Travis Hoke, who rated players by counting the number of bases their hits accounted for, not just for themselves but the advancement of any base runner! So perhaps instead of calling it Total Base Plus perhaps I should call it Total Hoke's or TH. Either way in my efforts to determine total bases I realized there was no good way to determine advancement of a runner. Easiest stat to try and determine an estimate of this would be the RBI. Although RBI doesn't account for a batter getting a single and moving a batter into scoring position thus allowing the following batter the ability to hit a single and get this RBI. So with my early estimate I used a value of 2 bases per RBI. For 2008 I decided to calculate in actual
number for the Rockies this year. I used the following table. Obviously a runner on third and with an RBI obtained then the batter gets one base. Bases loaded home run would give the batter 6 total bases (note the HR gives an RBI to the batter but is already counted in the HR total so the four bases are not counted in the RBI).
So what does the 2008 Roxs look like:
So on average a RBI is worth 1.75 total bases. So Atkins who had 99 RBIs (78 actual ones) got a total of 146 total bases or an average of 1.87 bases per RBI. Not for sure what the rate really means. If you look on the low end it is mostly pitchers and single hitters. Anyway that is that. In addition to this you can also rate the pitchers the same way. One thing I don't do is give bases to pitchers who left a man on then was relieved for another pitcher. My way of thinking is that pitcher gave up the hit which allowed the RBI so the bases would go to the reliever.
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