7.12.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 5-1 week against the Cardinals and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 49-39. Two games back from division leading San Diego in second place. Currently 31-16 at home and 18-23 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 430-385 (expected wins is 48 versus historical wins at 41). On pace for 90 wins with 792 runs scored and 709 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.12 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

At the All Star Break, the Rox sit at 49 - 39. A nice July run has put the Rox right on the heels of Padres for the division lead. Had it not been for a late inning bullpen meltdown, the Rox could have been tied with the Padres for the lead at 50 wins. As a fan this season, it has been a bit maddening. We have seen so many individual highlights but we have yet to see the team breakout and just hit and pitch. This latest winning streak has seen the offense breakout of its funk and yet the pitching has disintegrated.

Since Game 67 (35-32), the Rox have seen the projected runs allowed grow from 619 to 709 in 21 games. In that same stretch runs scored has only gone from 730 to 792. The bullpen is obviously tired. This time last year they had pitched only 257.2 innings while this year they have gone 275.1 innings. With Morales and Corpas already in the doghouse, Daley injured, Belisle seeing a ton of innings already, it might make sense for O'Dowd to find that seventh inning specialist from the American League to come in and give some late inning relief. Again I think it will be a quiet trade deadline for our Rox as we really don't have a real deficiency assuming Tulo can come back sooner than later. This will allow Barmes to slink back to second. With de la Rosa back in the fold the Rox are basically getting a new starter. All in all I think what we see on the field now will take us to the playoffs.

Short post this week (All Star Writing Break) and just a quick shutout to Ubaldo Jimenez and Troy Tulowitzki for their All Star nods. Plus for all those Pirate fans out there who think their team will never be good again well just think a Colorado pitcher is starting in the All Star Game!If that can happen anything in baseball can happen! What an achievement. Let's hope U-Ball wows like his hero Pedro...

Interesting to note the offensive all stars haven't done much while pitching has done pretty well. An instance that pitching does beat hitting?

7.11.2010

Ben Mezrich - Rigged

"Three-thirty in the morning, maybe closer to four."

As with any other Mezrich book sometimes you have to suspend your belief and realize that sometimes life is wilder than fiction. As with his book about the MIT BlackJack players, this book follows a similar formula in writing about a young Italian getting involved in the world of oil and the NY Mercantile Market. It reads like a movie something like Wall Street of the 80s. Amazing to think of the money some people make in the world. Dubai sounds like Disney World for adults. Would love to visit someday and fly Emirates Airlines...WOW. Unfortunately the real life star of the book doesn't seem to be all that glamorous. It would also suggest your way of life is often dictated by simply being the right person at the right time.


7.10.2010

England Day 4

Day Four started bright (not quite, more predawn) and early as I made a 2.5 hour journey by train into London. Leeds, where I am currently staying, is either a party town or England in general must like going out because at 4:30 AM the clubs around town, were still going and people were still out. Wow to be young and stupid again! Riding backwards all the way into London is always kind of goofy. The countryside reminds me a little bit of Ohio. Rolling hills with livestock and some farms. Towns pop up then dissolve back to countryside. Coming into London was very different from coming into New York City. On the train into NYC you can feel the city gobbling up the train but London just sort of creeps up on you and really doesn't punch you in the face like NYC. Arriving into Kings Cross (a dismal old train station undergoing modifications), I winded my way down into the subway for a trip to Greenwich. Took the Northern Line to Bank and then the "light rail" out to Cutty Sark (not just a drink!). After 3.5 hours of train travel, I finally got to look around and smell the London air! Nice blue sky summer day, the city was a bit quiet at this hour (8:30ish). The London skyline is not like what you see in the States. It is a bit more subdue and probably represents the old world whereas the new world's ego built skyscraper's to prove a point. Greenwich is southeast of London proper and it is the home of the Royal Observatory. So besides it being a geek place to visit it just happens to be where 0 degrees Longitude resides. Proof that winners write history the British Empire mark on the world is that the Observatory is where Longitude finds its home. Below you can see me straddling both the Eastern and Western hemispheres...

Fascinating place and interesting to think that the reason Britain became the sea power was because it could effectively navigate the world better than anyone else at the time. Just goes to show what a little governmental sponsored research can do (of course that research also developed the atom bomb). After this brief excursion, I headed back towards the city to see the tourist sights. Took the light rail back to Bank (which is basically a subway station under the London Bank) and headed towards the River Thames. I pride myself with directional awareness but trust me, being dumped out into the middle of the City trying to determine which way to head...yeah right! Eventually found my way and headed towards the Tate Modern Museum. No real reason other than to say I did something cultural! Interesting building. In my opinion modern art is mostly a US mainstay and therefore my guess is that the majority of it is found in our museums rather than the rest of the world. Nothing overly impressive. Finishing the whirlwind tour I headed back across the Thames over the Millennium Bridge and right into St Paul's Cathedral.

First off this structure is enormous. According to Wikipedia it was the tallest structure in London until 1962. It is inspiring. Having seen it I remember that the Royal Wedding which my Mom got me up to see year's ago between Charles and Diana was held there. Definitely a highlight of the visit.

After running around in the morning, I decided I needed a break. I sat down in the shade in a nice square and had lunch and a huge bottle of water. Did I mention it was quite warm in London? In the square there was a piano and people would stop and play (hmmm very similar to what they have in Denver right now...wonder if all the mayors are on a mailing list of cool things to do in their city?). Anyway it was amazing to watch the number of kids to sit down and play and not just "chopsticks" but real piano works...hmmm all those piano lessons do matter.

With my energy level back to full (sort of) I launched off to my first non touristy geek thing to do and that is find a comic book store! Forbidden Planet was what came up on Google so off I went. It is funny that when you get off the beaten path, a city really is quiet place. Strolling along without the hustle and bustle of tourist really is quite nice. Along the way I stumbled upon a model shop. The Brits love their scale models of things. Corgi is probably best known in America but I found there to be a whole lot of other companies as well. In America today you have to go to some odd hobby shop to even find a model (toluene glue smell anyone?). Kids today don't build anything anymore with glue! Eventually I stumbled upon the comic store but not before this...

Forbidden Planet was the mother of all things SciFi. Two floors of magnificence. Everything scifi you could imagine. A basement full of scifi books only, piles of new comics, enormous TPB section, manga, movies, and WOW. I could have spent a day just there but as with the rest of this little journey I had more to see and do. Although at this point it was about 1:30 in the afternoon I was at a lost of what to still see. Using my handy dandy Google Maps feature on my BB I realized I wasn't too far from the blackhole that pulls all tourist to London and that is Big Ben. So off I went to see, "Look Kids, Big Ben, Parliament", which by the way is the only memorable thing from the movie European Vacation and trust me the round abouts do suck! Checked off the sights and was glad to be away from all the people. Yikes! Back on the subway and off to see my sports mecca for the trip.

In all honesty I can't tell you why I like the Arsenal Football Club. I have yet to see them play a game and yet I have this strange attraction to them. In one of those strange pattern events I first came upon Arsenal's jersey (errr kit I should say) when they were sponsored by a British cell phone company O2. Being a nerd I got the jersey (O2 is oxygen for you non chemist types). Then around this time Fever Pitch came out which was an Americanized version of a book written by Nick Hornby which is about the English football team, Arsenal. I think the writers of the movie felt the love/hate relationship of the Arsenal followers was similar to that of the Red Sox? Well being a Red Sox fan, I loved the movie, and thus read the book. Book is over the top football and England. A bit difficult for an uneducated American to follow but came away from it understanding a little more about English football love. Either way I continue to remotely follow the team and then suddenly the Colorado MLS soccer team formed a relationship with who? None other than Arsenal, so go figure. So to make a long story short I decided that I should make a visit to Emirates Stadium. Wow what a complex. Raising out of the middle of London suburbs, hmm like Fenway, the stadium is a gazillion dollar home seating 60,000 people. The stadium, built by HoK, is enormous and from the outside looks like your typical American football stadium. It is unfortunate that you can't see the pitch from the outside and it was doubly unfortunate that they don't start play until August.

Their slogan is "Victory through Harmony." It was interesting to see and just walking around you could feel the same sort of fanaticism that any baseball or football team here in the States would have. It is definitely a goal of mine to see an English Premiership match.

After this brief stop (British subways are crazy warm), I found that I had developed heat rash on my ankles! Yikes, so after getting back to Kings Cross I decided to head to the pub for some English Ale and dinner. The pub was in St Pancras which is the international train center right next to Kings Cross. It has finished its refurbishment and it is everything you think of when you think of European train stations. It made me want to jump a train to the mainland!

It was also a great place to watch people. The diversity of London was amazing. Classic imagine was a blond woman in a skirt and heels passing by a Muslim woman in her full body covering. I so wish I had my camera out because I think it is so fitting with the East meeting the West (near Greenwich no less!). At 8 PM, I finally gave up and went home. What an exhausting day. By the time I had gotten home I felt old but was glad to have seen what I saw.

Funny that during WWII the queen had the famous saying of "Keep Calm and Carry On" but I like the modern version "Keep Cool and Chill Out" (which I saw on a T-shirt). And finally who doesn't like dogs on the trains?


7.08.2010

England Day 2

Day Two

Went to my first English Pub. I had fish and chips but some of the menu items (haggis!) sounded awful. Who eats this stuff? Tasted some beers and they were pretty tasty (had a cute little half pint). Ate Mexican tonight or as they call it Latin. Corona's taste better closer to Mexico. Fajitas were tasty but they didn't have any chips and salsa! Food here is expensive. Beers were about $5 each. Funny observations:

- Brits love their little signs. Signs are everywhere and they are tiny and cute.
- Phone companies rule the roost. They are everywhere.
- Subways have some weird sandwiches (fried breaded chicken anyone?)
- Women here love high heels but with the cobblestones I don't get how they get anywhere
- Paper money turns into coins relatively quickly...what to do with a $2 coin?
- Hotel room doesn't have wash clothes or clock
- No roll on deodorant just spray on?

7.07.2010

England Day One

Made it...long overnight flight. Left after an hour and half delay. Actually slept with crying babies and all. Heathrow is a big giant maze. Wow at least after a long flight I got to walk (for like a mile!). Interestingly enough I got biometrically scanned (?) so now I must be in some big face database...wonder why I couldn't sign a privacy notice on that one? Hop, skip, and jump flight from Heathrow to Manchester although it was delayed for over an hour and yet my bag still didn't make it. So lovely to be in England with only the clothes on your back. Lovely feeling...NOT. Got to drive in England...guess I am a moron but I thought everything would be in metric but no everything is miles...duh I guess? Oh yeah creepy foreign dude on the airplane today with a incision almost completely around his head. And does Arabic read right to left as in pages like Japan? Again it was an adventure driving on the wrong side of the road. Not to mention getting stuck with a car that was manual transmission. Talking about completely being baffled, when was the last time you used your left hand to shift gears. Funny thing was I found myself always drifting left. I wonder if it was the car or me? Anyway highway driving is fine...city driving...old English city driving sucks! I will be happy if I don't get an in accident while driving around Leeds. Freaking nightmare!

Haiku Wednesday

Peaches

Fuzzy touch greets you
Lips smack, hear the slurping sound
Yummy juicy good

7.05.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 5-2 week against the Padres and Giants. The Rox currently stand at 44-38. Five games back from division leading San Diego in third place. Currently 26-15 at home and 18-23 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 385-348 (expected wins is 45 versus historical wins at 38). On pace for 87 wins with 761 runs scored and 688 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.11 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

At the half way point, the Rox sat at 43 - 38. Not a bad place to be but sitting in third place makes it a long road to climb. Thing you have to love about baseball is the unpredictably. I mean I will be honest I didn't even bother thinking about the Padres during the preseason. No one gave them any love and yet here they sit, sixteen games above .500. An amazing first half but can it continue? I am going to say yes because you don't play that kind of ball and just disappear. Will 86 wins make it?

Half Way Point
Back in March I provided an overview of 2010 projections comparing Bill James, Marcels, and CHONE. I added ZiPS later. Each of these projections provided at bats, plate appearances, run scored and wOBA for each hitter and innings pitched, runs allowed, and FIP for each pitcher. Taking each of these data points and averaging them I put together a projection for a Rox projected lineup. Since we passed the halfway game mark, we are approximately halfway through the season so how do the projections stack up to the real data (i.e. CarGo has scored 49 runs this year so far so he is projected to score 98).

The solid bar represents the average of the four projections and the red line is the 1st quarter pace while the blue line is the halfway pace. So above represents that CarGo is on pace for about 30 more runs then what the average projection had him before the start of the season. Obviously Hawpe's injury limited his time so his numbers are low and with Ianetta stuck in AAA he isn't scoring a lot of runs in the big leagues. Interesting to see Tulo still above his projection even though he is injured and all the Barmes haters can shut up and take notice that he has been offensively playing a lot better. The projections don't do the bench players much justice because they assume they will get a lot more starts and thus more runs. Based on this analysis the team is on pace to score 791 runs.
In addition to the hitters the above graph shows the runs allowed for the pitchers. With the pitching flux this year it is hard to get a real feel for what this staff is capable of. U-Ball continues to be amazing albeit more earth like. Hammel is doing well but Francis seems to be hitting a wall after a year off from pitching. Relief pitching seems to be settling in especially with Street back. Team is on pace to only allow 658 runs which would be a new team record. We shall see...

Based on projections the team is headed for about 94 wins but with other stats (WAR and wOBA/FIP) it would seem the Rox are only headed for about 83 wins. Little low to ensure a Wild Card or Division Title but still in the hunt!

6.30.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Heat

Our Sun's warming rays
Feel its touch, makes me happy
Cold beverage, better

6.28.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 3-3 week against the Red Sox and Angels. The Rox currently stand at 39-36. Six games back from division leading San Diego in fourth place. Currently 23-14 at home and 16-22 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 341-306 (expected wins is 42 versus historical wins at 35). On pace for 84 wins with 737 runs scored and 661 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.11 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

At the almost half way point I think we can safely say that if the Rox don't sweep the series in San Diego this upcoming week their season is done. Currently six games behind the Padres, any hope to getting back into the race would be heavily dependent on the Rox taking three games and getting to within three. Three losses and we would be nine out. With a series then at home against the Giants followed by St Louis and finishing up with San Diego before the All Star break these 13 games are the season. The real sad part in all of this is that pitching as been masterful (go figure the staff has allowed 153 runs both at home and away). Perhaps when this season is over we will look back and consider this to be the greatest set of hurlers in Rox history. Too bad the offense decided to take a year off (see below). Hate to dismantle the team but perhaps it is time to let some members of this team go and try to get some future power in return.

Projected Runs Score
Woody Paige was on the mark last week in his article about the total lack of offense this team has produced. The team has been highly deficient in the power department. With a team full of potential big bats the lack of production is just too great to overlook anymore. With the team, management, and owners still believing that we just haven't gotten hot yet mentality I see this season becoming very much like 2008. Good teams can't wait to go on long winning streaks. They make up for this by taking 2 of 3 or 3 of 4 out of every series. These Rox have had brilliant moments but they fail to capitalize on bad teams. Their pitching continues to keep them afloat but having the 3rd most strikeouts in NL behind Arizona and Florida would suggest that "hot" is a relative term and that we might get "warm" which could mean a Wild Card run but most likely a .500 finish.

As mentioned above the Rox are on pace to score 737 runs. This value is simply the current runs scored (341) times number of expected games played in a season (162) divided by the number of games played (75). The question then is how closely will the Rox come to this number at the end of the year? If you take the previous 17 years (take out '94 and '95 seasons since they did not play a full schedule) and calculate the number of projected runs scored through the season by game number and then subtract this by the actual run score value you get a number of runs difference. So for instance in 2009, the Rox after Game 10 were on pace to score 842 runs. In actuality they scored 805 in 2009 so the difference was minus 37 runs after ten games. In the other years the values at Game 10 ranged from more than 390 above actual to 261 below actual valve. If you average these differences for all the years at Game 10, you end up with an average of 19 runs above average. This average is the blue line below.

The blue indicates that early in the season, though about 36 games the average difference between actual and projected is negative or in other words the runs score pace is higher than what becomes average. From that point it fluctuates but settles in. The error bar lines on the graph is the standard deviation from the blue point valve. Obviously early in the season when you score 10 runs or 0 runs it can cause your projection to fluctuate to the extremes but then as the season settles in your difference becomes less. Either way the data would suggest that Rox 737 projected runs is here to stay. Knowing that our run score environment is in this range it would mean if we want to be a playoff team our allowed runs need to be in the 635 range. So if our offense doesn't start to pick up our pitching as to get stingier. Good luck with that!

This team has shown instances of being the juggernaut it was suppose to be but with injuries and the continuous shuffling of the batting order it would suggest that realistically this team isn't going to wake from its offensive slumber. Not to be negative but it would seem a mini rebuilding scenario is a likely path forward for 2010. Look at the D-backs, a similar team with a potent future that never lived up to expectations. Do the Rox really want to be in last place next year? Couple of arm injuries and that is where we will be!

And Finally
Check out my article at Fangraphs.

6.27.2010

World Cup

My World Cup history is as follows:

In 2002, I helped my mom paint her house and watched it in the background and then in 2006 well it wasn't even in my consciousness. I do remember when the World Cup came to the US and that is the sum total of my thinking of soccer. This year for some reason the tipping point was reached and I watched it with passion. Perhaps because my kids play I have more interest? Either way it has been growing on me...

Enough has been written on the 2010 campaign. I don't have a lot more to say other than we still have a lot to grow as a soccer nation. It was neat we won our Group but watching other teams there is a definite difference between a World Cup qualifying team an a team with the potential to actually win the Cup. After watching the 4 US matches and then just spending 20 minutes watching either Argentina, Brazil, or Germany and there is a HUGE difference in the quality. Biggest thing I saw was no real scoring threat and a leaky defense. Finally NY Times had this graph in last week's Sunday Sports section (couldn't find it on the website) and I think it sums up the entire 2010 run for the US.

Bottom line the US led for all of 3 minutes in the 2010 World Cup.

My Haiku's for the Games:

USA vs Ghana (L 1-2)
Ghana better team
Support of whole Continent
Nice run for US

USA vs Algeria (W 1-0)
Whew! Last minute goal!
Soccer Gods one...refs zero
Donovan hero

USA vs Slovenia (Tie 2-2)
Refs stole our two points
So close, a game of inches
Heck of a comeback!

USA vs England (Tie 1-1)
A seesaw match
US defends second half
Thank England's Keeper!