Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-5 week against the D-Backs and Cardinals. The Rox currently stand at 25-27. Three and half games behind the D-Backs(!) for the division lead. Currently 13-15 at home and 12-12 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 238-221 (expected wins is 28 versus historical wins at 24). On pace for 78 wins with 741 runs scored and 689 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.08 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).  Amazing what some high scoring blowouts can do to your run differential and what a bunch of one run losses can do to your record!

Another miserable homestand.  Also time to say goodbye to Paulino (finally) and Lopez (gee we hardly knew you).  Changes abound especially with de la Rosa's injury.  Busy week with the EY Jr and Chris Nelson getting a call back up to the Big City and Big Leagues.  And now the Rox go on a 16 trip through the NL West with 9 on the road in LA, San Fran, and San Diego (sounds like a nice vacation!) followed by LA and Padres coming to town.  Hate to say it this early in the season, but I think this span of games decides the season.  Win less than 7 games and the Rox will bury themselves in the Division.  Sure there will still be 94 games left but after these 16 games through the division, the Rox get Detroit (currently 26-26), Cleveland (31-19), and then the Yankees (28-23).  Not exactly an easy Interleague schedule!

Perhaps the offense will wake up but with the injury to de la Rosa the pitching shuffle begins.  Can Nicasio stick around?  Will U-Ball find his slot?  Can Cook save the day?  The young Chacin start to scuffle?  Starting pitching problems can lead to overused bullpen...what then?

In the end a lot can happen.  Remember 2009 when our Rox were 20-32 and then went on a 17-1 tear?  Rox can get hot and put May behind them for good.  They certainly have the talent but when will it all come together?

Links, Links, and Links
- Recreational sabermetrics?  Well if you think reading scholarly papers is recreational...
- Great article on hitting, glad he left the division.
- Yup with Wilson Valdez getting some love for his win we are reminded of Brent Mayne's win
- When is it too late to have hope?
- And this visually shows U-Ball's early season troubles...

Haiku Wednesday

Cool Drinks

Parched lips seek relief
An icy cold glass sweating
Perfect Summer match

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-4 week against the Giants, Phillies, and Brewers. The Rox currently stand at 23-22. Three and half games behind the Giants for the division lead. Currently 11-10 at home and 12-12 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 199-163 (expected wins is 24 versus historical wins at 19). On pace for 83 wins with 716 runs scored and 670 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.07 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Listening to the Yankee broadcast yesterday (yeah I like John Sterling's call) and they were talking about batting averages and what not and I started wonder if instead of some gradual transition, baseball is seeing a seismic shift towards pitching and defense.  The current OBP average in 2011 is at 0.319, it was 0.325 in 2010, 0.337 in 2009, 0.333 in 2008, 0.336 in 2007, 0.336 in 2006, 0.330 in 2005, 0.335 in 2004, 0.332 in 2003, 0.331 in 2002, and 0.332 in 2001 for an average of 0.332 in ten years.  So is a drop of 0.013 a big deal (Batting average over that period 0.264 versus 0.250 this year)?  Well in the big scheme of things probably not.  It equates to about 22 more hits or walks or hit by pitch for each team in the league so far

But perhaps what is a bigger deal...slugging percentage has gone from an average of 0.420 in that period to 0.387 this year.  Add this to not getting on base as much and what do you see?  A game that perhaps is returning to a game that doesn't wait for the big home run to win a game?  Could mean that taking the extra base, stealing, speed, and bunting could be becoimg a factor.  Or it could mean nothing, 2 months into the season...the weather has been miserable and maybe offense just hasn't "hit" its groove.

But if a siesmic shift is occuring what does this mean for the Rox?  Yup we are 12th in the NL in stolen bases and we know about the inability to get a bunt down (calling Mr Fowler...).  Are the Rox built for the 3 run homer but not the one run game?  Rox are 5th in the NL in runs scored, 5th in home runs, 5th in walks,  and 6th in slugging.  So yeah we have had some big hits but does a ranking in the big bat category lead to a 23-22 record?  My guess is that while we have some big wins (6-3 in blow outs) but a miserable 6 - 10 in one run games is that one reason the Giants win without power is that they win the close games.  This isn't really anything new...Tracy has been saying it all year...Rox need to hit with the situation not hit for the fences.  Until they can successfully do this the Rox are going to be a .500 team.

Furthermore what I can tell is that the Rox need a a fire cracker, a spark that gets on base.  With pitching and defense at a premium in the league Rox need to start playing small ball versus looking for the big bat.  We are at the quarter post and while it fine to hear Rox continue to say they are talented and that they will start hitting the fact is we are 45 games into the season.  When is a trend become the season?

What if they are wrong and they never start hitting?

 

U2 - 360 Tour

360 Tour 2011 (May 21st)

Opening Act: The Fray

Comments:  Great setup but the 50 year old band members have started to age.  Still a lot of energy and amazing that a band can fill an 80,000 football stadium but some of the song choices seemed weak.  Plus the flow was a bit off (perhaps they needed to catch their breaths?).  Anyway was glad to finally see them after a year delay but the hype has gotten to them and maybe they need to get back to the basics.  Bono seemed distant and a little off.  Back to the flow comment, I just felt the songs choices didn't jive all that well especially toward the end when you couldn't tell if they were preparing for the encore, in the encore, or what.  I especially disliked the abrupt ending, come on, finish off with an anthem and make everyone go home happy!  Oh and the poem...here

Setlist:

Even Better Than The Real Thing I Will Follow Get On Your Boots Magnificent Mysterious Ways Elevation Until The End Of The World All I Want Is You Stay (Faraway, So Close!) Beautiful Day Pride (In The Name Of Love) Miss Sarajevo Zooropa City Of Blinding Lights Vertigo I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight / Discothèque (snippet) / Please (snippet) Sunday Bloody Sunday Scarlet Walk On / You'll Never Walk Alone (snippet) encore(s): One Where The Streets Have No Name Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me With Or Without You Moment of Surrender

Vertigo Tour 2005 (April 20th)

Comments:  Got tickets at the last minute through ebay.  Seats were behind the stage a couple of rows from the top.  Was worth the money and not all that bad of a show.

Setlist:

1. Love And Peace Or Else
2. Vertigo / Stories For Boys (snippet)
3. Elevation
4. The Cry
5. The Electric Co. / Send In The Clowns (snippet) / I Can See For Miles (snippet)
6. An Cat Dubh
7. Into The Heart
8. City Of Blinding Lights
9. Beautiful Day / Rain (snippet)
10. Miracle Drug
11. Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own / No Regrets (snippet)
12. New Year's Day
13. Sunday Bloody Sunday
14. Bullet The Blue Sky / When Johnny Comes Marching Home (snippet) / The Hands That Built America (snippet)
15. Running To Stand Still
16. Pride (In The Name Of Love)
17. Where The Streets Have No Name
18. One / She's A Mystery To Me (snippet)
encore(s):
19. Zoo Station
20. The Fly
21. Mysterious Ways
22. All Because Of You
23. Yahweh
24. 40

Elevation Tour 2001 (April 6th)
Opening Act: PJ Harvey

Comments:  Best show ever for me.  Was seated right next to the stage and could literally spit on Bono has he walked by.  Not one bad song and fabulous setlist.

Setlist:

Elevation / Creep (snippet) Beautiful Day Until The End Of The World New Year's Day Stuck In A Moment You Can't Get Out Of Gone Discothèque / Devil Inside (snippet) / Love To Love You Baby (snippet) / Staring At The Sun(snippet) New York I Will Follow Sunday Bloody Sunday / Get Up Stand Up (snippet) Sweetest Thing In A Little While / Crazy Love (snippet) The Ground Beneath Her Feet Bad / 40 (snippet) Psalm 116 (snippet) / Where The Streets Have No Name Mysterious Ways The Fly encore(s): Bullet The Blue Sky / Whole Lotta Love (snippet) / Young Americans (snippet) With Or Without You One / 40 (snippet) Walk On

Popmart Tour 1997 (April 25th)

Comments: Never see a show right out of the gate.  Popmart truly beat the band to a bloody pulp.  Again nosebleed seats and the band seemed disjointed all night (what show plays a song twice because they messed it up?).

Setlist:

Mofo I Will Follow Even Better Than The Real Thing Into The Groove (snippet) / Do You Feel Loved? / I Feel Love (snippet) Pride (In The Name Of Love) I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For Last Night On Earth Gone Until The End Of The World If God Will Send His Angels Staring At The Sun Staring At The Sun Daydream Believer (Edge Karaoke) Miami / My Mammy (snippet) / Cuba (snippet) Bullet The Blue Sky / Thank You (Falettinme Be Mice Elf Agin) (snippet) / America (snippet) Please / Sunday Bloody Sunday (snippet) Where The Streets Have No Name / Playboy Mansion (snippet) encore(s): Discothèque / Discothèque Howie B Hairy B Mix (snippet) If You Wear That Velvet Dress With Or Without You Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me Mysterious Ways One

Zoo-TV Outside Broadcast 1992 (October 21st)
Comment:  First time I ever saw U2 live and had to leave after song 13.  Gotta love the Academy...




Setlist:

1. Zoo Station
2. The Fly
3. Even Better Than The Real Thing
4. Mysterious Ways
5. One / Unchained Melody (snippet)
6. Until The End Of The World
7. New Year's Day
8. Dirty Old Town
9. Tryin' To Throw Your Arms Around The World
10. Angel Of Harlem / Annie's Song (snippet)
11. When Love Comes To Town
12. Satellite Of Love
13. Bad / Old Man (snippet) / All I Want Is You (snippet)
14. Bullet The Blue Sky
15. Running To Stand Still
16. Where The Streets Have No Name
17. Pride (In The Name Of Love)
18. I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
19. Stand By Me
encore(s):
20. Desire
21. With Or Without You
22. Love Is Blindness
23. Can't Help Falling In Love

Haiku Wednesday

Commencement

Rotate the tassel
Turn the page, look to Future
Enjoy the moment

Comic Splat

The Amazing Spider-Man #660
Yeah clobberin' time!
Not really a spidey thing
But Carlie's tattoo ;)

Captain America #617
Tough time for Bucky
Gulag for Winter Soldier
Black Widow to help

Fear Itself #2
The Gods have left us
Earth becomes the battle ground
Whose hammer prevails?

Flashpoint #1
Where and when is Flash?
The world is not what it seems
And who is the Bat?

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-4 week against the Mets and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 20-18. One and half games behind the Giants for the division lead. Currently 9-10 at home and 11-8 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 170-163 (expected wins is 20 versus historical wins at 17). On pace for 85 wins with 725 runs scored and 695 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.04 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Listening to the pre-game show today Jack indicated to Jim in the Manager's Talk that fans and the media can sometimes look at the numbers and jump to conclusions too often.  Also earlier in the pre-game Tulo sort of mentioned the same thing indicating how long the baseball season can be.  As a passionate fan, I say to both Jim and Tulo that it isn't a long season.  Passion has to be there night in and night out.  Too often this team has shrugged off poor April/May by saying they will get hot down the stretch.  Last time I checked that theory has only worked one time!

Enough of the "it's a long season", "lots of ups and downs", "don't get too high or too low"...yeah well two cellar dwellers came into your house and beat the crap out of you.  If it had been the Phillies or Giants or Cardinals, I would agree with the assessment that it's a long season.  But we are talking about the Mets and Padres...two teams that aren't going to the playoffs and have both a pitching staff and lineup that are pathetic and yet they came into your home and smashed the ball into your face.  Something has to give...someone needs to step up and say this is our home, not yours, and start playing like you care.

I go to a lot of games and frankly for the money I am paying I want wins every night.  I don't want some sorry excuse for why you blew a 7-1 lead to a team that has been shut out 8 times already.  Winning on the road is hard enough so take the wins at home when they present themselves.  Someone needs to show some excitement, some emotion, something that indicates to me that I should care about this team every homestand.  And I'm a fan, what about those first timers, those kids...don't let them go home sad, make them go home excited because they saw players who cared about winning and losing even in May!

My rant is done...thank you!

Thor

Great movie. Not over the top but extremely well done. Actor who played Thor channeled the comic book character just right.  Not for sure what the purpose of Natalie's role but whatever. Thought her friend was more entertaining especially her little tirade on Mjolnir!

Two Avengers make an appearance...Hawkeye and Luke Cage (?).

Sam Kean - The Disappearing Spoon

Another book to explain the wackiness that is the periodic table.  Decent read nothing over the top.  Just a good solid read.

Haiku Wednesday

Moth

Runs with tougher crowd
Butterfly's ugly sister?
Likes the City's Lights

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 1-5 week against the D-Backs and Giants. The Rox currently stand at 18-14. One game lead in the division. Currently 7-6 at home and 11-8 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 139-125 (expected wins is 18 versus historical wins at 15). On pace for 91 wins with 704 runs scored and 633 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.11 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Wow what a difference a week makes.  Last week we were making excuses like yeah the Rox offense is not hitting on all cyclinders but hey we have a four and half game lead in the division.  Yeah well the other shoe dropped this week when not only did our offense fail to do anything (scored 16 runs!) but then the bullpen finally showed its weakness (anyone want Morales or Paulino, cheap....).  Last year Belisle was the savior in that long relief role when behind in tight games.  This year he has shown to be a mere mortal. 

As far as the offense goes just look at the graph below.  Before that first series with the Giants we were on pace to score 900+ runs (granted small sample size) but since then we are now on pace to score 704 runs.  So in a 15 game span our offense has sputtered significantly.  Realistically there is no scapegoat although we'd like to just pin it on Stewart but I think Stewart does serve as the example to why our offense is going nowhere and that is the failure to make adjustments.  The book is out there and if you continue to go up to the plate expecting them to just give you your pitch then you are sunk before you get to the box.  The pendulum has swung back to the pitcher being the dominant side of the equation (two no hitters this year and heck 4 almost no no just to the Rox alone!).


Small Sample Size but 15 Games Ago Rox on Pace for 900 Runs



Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-2 week against the Cubs and Pirates. The Rox currently stand at 17-9. Four and half game lead in the division. Currently 7-6 at home and 10-3 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 123-104 (expected wins is 15 versus historical wins at 12). On pace for 106 wins with 766 runs scored and 648 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.18 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

And that was April...Whew!  Based on the events that happened over night, I guess before I go on some rant about the Rox I probably should step back and realize that what the Rox do night in and night out is to play a game on a field the same size that I played when I was a child.  Not to say that what big leaguers do is childish but realize they are lucky to be able to play a child's game!

So instead of whining about U-Balls dead arm (see graph below), or CarGo's April slump, or losing two of three to the Pirates, or Fowler's strikeouts, or Lopez's slow start, or Spilly awful pinch hitting, or anything else I should simply look at the standings of the NL West and realize our Rox are in first place.  With all that has happened (or didn't happen), the Rox took care of business (for once in April) and now have the advantage of playing above average baseball the rest of the way instead of being supermen trying to make up 10 games during the Summer!

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3374&position=P&pitch=FA

It is kind of comical how we view our team.  8 games over 0.500, 4 and half game lead, and suddenly nothing is right with this team...what would we do if the Rox were 8 under 0.500 instead?  Maybe if that had happened we would feel OK because that is what we are used to but now we are the front runners.  Teams look at us differently now because we are the division leaders.  Maybe as fans we simply don't know what to do but complain?

In the end I think the last week of April soured the month.  Up until we hit the gauntlet of the Giants and Marlins pitching we were averaging 5.6 runs per game and then after that stretch we ended up averaging only 4.8 over the entire month.  Getting almost no hit three times in one week has got to mess with your head.  Throw in the weather and Rox must have felt like leftovers being freezed (Colorado), thawed (Florida), and then back to freeze (Chicago and Colorado).  I think this especially messed with the pitchers and probably the extended time off hurt the offense.  So anyway as the saying goes you can't win a pennant in April but you can certainly lose one and the Rox didn't hurt themselves!

Links and Other Random Thoughts

- Tulo article in NY Times - This one was published awhile back but I don't think I included it...

- After the rain out in Chicago and the difficulty of scheduling games later in the season I wondered if a home team had ever hosted a double header but with two different teams?  While officially this is not a doubleheader (definition states that it is between the same two teams) I had to wonder.  According to Wikipedia it happened in:

"On September 25, 2000, the Cleveland Indians hosted a doubleheader against two different teams. The September 10 game against the Chicago White Sox in Cleveland had been rained out. With no common days off for the remainder of the season and both teams in a post-season race, the teams agreed to play a day game in Cleveland on the same day that the Indians were to host the Minnesota Twins for a night game. The Indians defeated the White Sox 9-2 in the first game while the Twins defeated the Indians 4-3 in the second."


- Nice article on developing 50 game winners for an organization.  The Rox can say they have done it with U-Ball, Francis, and Jennings (by the way article left out Cook)