Haiku Wednesday

Windmill

There's something soothing
Watching the sweep of her arms
Invisible force

Future of College Football

Just my two cents...with Texas A&M going to the SEC and how College Football's national champion could be settled on the field rather then in a computer or poll.  Beauty of 4 mega conferences of 16 teams each would be that each of these conferences would have a championship game and then these four teams would meet in a Final Four of sorts.  

Bowls could still exist for the other 60 teams and then the have nots (teams not in the mega conferences) could still jump in.  Of course you could shove these other teams into two minor major conferences and the winners from those could be slotted into some sort of wild card.  Should be interesting of course 15 years ago the WAC tried the mega 16 team thing and it lasted all of 3 years (?).  More things change the more they stay the same...

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 4-2 week against the Astros and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 64-70.  Ten and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in third place. Currently 35-33 at home and 29-37 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 624-619 (expected wins is 67 versus historical wins at 63). On pace for 77 wins with 748 runs scored and 754 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.99 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox finally have a decent home stand going 7-2 and sweep the Astros last week.  Face it the Rox aren't going anywhere this year.  Management has done its best to indicate they aren't throwing in the towel and continue to talk like there is still an outside chance to squeak into the playoffs.  Waiver claim on Wandy Rodriquez at least indicates there willingness to make something happen.  When the season is over pitching problems will probably define this lost season and so I applaud Rox for at least making an effort.

Unfortunately we then compare a nice three game sweep to almost getting swept in LA over the weekend. Media types would like us to think that LA and the owner problems swirling around the team would describe why they are in 4th place and treading water.  The problem I see is that not much separates LA from our Rox.  Both have some nice young starting pitching (well we used to have UBall and Kershaw, Chacin and Billingsly), decent bullpen, some nice offensive pieces (like Kemp and Either/Loney against Tulo and CarGo), and good dugout coaches and you know what?  Both teams are 6 - 8 games under 0.500 and going no where this year.  Kind of shows you that a lot of nice individual pieces don't always fit together to form a complete team.

And the worst thing about all of this?  Yup D-Backs were 80 to 1 odds to win the world series (worse in our division) while our Rox were 20 to 1 and who gets the opportunity in October...yup that would probably by the D-Backs.  Yikes baseball can sure mess with us.

Understatement of the Year
"I wonder where we would be if we had 50-55 more RBIs from third base. Been an issue all year," Tracy said


Look What I Did
I sent this along...

Captain America - Volume 3

Hard to believe Cap survived the 70s not to mention black power and Falcon and some women's lib thrown in for good measure.  And I thought some of today's storylines were tough.  

Masamume Shirow - Appleseed 4

Amazing art and a book with a whole lot more backstory then I would care to admit.  This is the end, no more Deunan and Briaeos. The artist decided he like drawing porn.  Such a shame as this book was first published in Japan in 1989.  Twenty years later and there is nothing to look for...what a pity!

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 4-2 week against the Marlins and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 60-68.  Nine and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in third place. Currently 32-33 at home and 28-35 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 588-581 (expected wins is 63 versus historical wins at 60). On pace for 76 wins with 735 runs scored and 744 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.99 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

So hypothetically, based on runs scored vs runs against, Rox should be 63-65 and thus possibly only 6.5 games back from leading the division (assuming Rox had some luck on their side this year).  In addition let's also assume they are playing 0.600 at home (average over the last 4 years) which means Rox should have about 38 wins at home this year versus the 32 they currently have.  So let's say they aren't raking at home but still winning at home then Rox should be sitting at maybe 66 - 62 right now and about 3.5 back?  How frustrated are you now with Rox season?  Amazing to think that we throw in some luck and better home record and realistically Rox aren't that far away from contending in the West.  Now of course the reason for close run differential is attributable to a bunch of blow out wins at home.

1 run (18-23)
2 runs (11-12)
3 runs (11-12)
4 runs (4-5)
5 runs (4-5)
6 runs (2-4)
7 runs (2-3)
8+ runs (7-4)

Yup when you lead in the 8+ runs department it shows our Rox have about 24 run swing differential going for us.

So looking at the record it looks like we should be a little better off...what about season projections?  75% through the season the offense looks like this (note: projections were based on who likely was going to be the starters throughout the season):

Blue is last season's numbers, yellow is the average from the experts (with error), and the next three are final 162 projection after each quarter.  First quarter had a lot of super stars who then fell back to earth the second quarter.  Third quarter has come back and for the most part CarGo, Fowler, Helton, Tulo, Smith, Iannetta, and Wiggy have lived up to expectations.  Amazing thing is even with these seven players living up to expectations the team is on pace to score about 75 runs less than expected.

And the pitchers?

Mostly just a mess.  U-Ball was certainly not what we expected.  De la Rosa got hurt and Cook was hurt before finally coming back.  Chacin has been good but has struggled and Hammel has just regressed.  Bullpen has been steady although the Paulino thing never worked out.  Fill ins like Nicasio were huge and currently the runs allowed projection is about on based on what was expected.

Hard to believe but it is the offense holding our Rox back!

Neil Gaiman - The Sandman: Season of Mists

So much more than meets the eye.  Even in the early 90s, Gaiman was fascinated by the various "Gods" These characters all show up again in what I think is Gaiman's magnus opus which is the American Gods.  Good read.

MCA Denver - Another Victory Over the Sun

Another fabulous show at the MCA - Denver.  For this exhibition they covered all the windows and made the museum the antithesis of what it normally is - open and light.  In the spaces they filled with artist who "shine" in the dark.  The two exhibits I liked the most were Miguel Calderon video of a panther in the a dark room with a black light showing so that not only did you hear it prowling but occasionally it would show its teeth!  Creepy  I also like David Zimmer's exhibit which melds technology and nature.  (Cycle, 2011, Chorus 2011, Spleen, 2011, Echo#1, #2, #3, 2011.

And finally Erin Shirreff's rephotographed of NY RCA Building of Ansel Adams original work.  It was eerie...(Ansel Adams, RCA Building, Circa 1940, 2009 Color HD video)

Random Haiku

Buffalo Mountain Trail

You beat us again
This time rain threatened journey
The White Whale lives on

Random Haiku

Snake River

Snow melt runs through it /
Azure color, pristine, crisp /
Icy to the touch

Don DeLillo - Point Omega

After reading Cosmopolis had to give DeLillo another shot.  Much like Cosmopolis a very short and tight work of fiction.  Loved Cosmopolis for the over the top characterization of the main protagonist, this book is more a short work of structure.  Characters serve as guide posts but I think the novel in of itself is the point.  Upon finishing it I had to give it a google search just to see what it all meant.  The big eye opener was reading wikipedia entry which claimed the novel was a haiku (?).  Written in 3 parts it has and opening and closing a day apart in a museum with the action centered in the third verse or middle chapter.  Hmmm don't know but kind of neat if that is what it really is...

Haiku Wednesday

Camp Fire

That smell of burnt wood
It says crackle, pop, sizzle
Smoke always in eyes

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-5 week against the Philies and Nats. The Rox currently stand at 53-62.  Ten games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 28-31 at home and 25-31 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 529-518 (expected wins is 56 versus historical wins at 54). On pace for 75 wins with 730 runs scored and 745 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

So much for some home cooking.  Not that going against the Phillies is an easy task (swept away) but to split the series with the Nats just goes to show how miserable home has been for our Rox.  Interesting that within the past couple of weeks the media, fans, and management have started to realize our Rox aren't very good on the major league roster and don't have much in the minors either.  Funny how before the season started the organization seemed to be moving in the right direction and yet with the pathetic season in front of us the big questions come out to suggest that not all is all rosy for our hometown team.

I thought this season projection was a bit off when it came out but now I am not so sure...this quote pretty much sums it up, "If you were looking for a definition of a stars and scrubs lineup, this would be as good an example as any."  Guess our scrubs didn't do it and to think we got rid of Don Baylor because our scrubs stopped relating to Baylor...check the standings scrubs how those D-Backs getting along with Baylor? Maybe management needs to start being realistic next year...and stop listening to the scrubs.

Todd Helton
The other night when listening to some broadcast someone mentioned that one of the players had reached 650 plate appearances against one team and had such such numbers.  Since 650 plate appearances is approximately a season, the question would be what would Helton's seasons numbers be against the teams he has faced.  For what it is worth Todd has only has 650 plate appearances for teams against the NL West foes but one can extrapolate based on 650 plate appearances.  For comparison Todd has averaged 28 homers, 103 RBIs, and has batted 0.323.

Toss out Rays, Twins and Athletics, Todd has had some phenomenal team seasons against Nats, Cards, Astros, Marlins, Dodgers, Philies and Pirates.  Interesting to note that Rox have always struggled against the Braves and so does Todd.  Besides the AL teams the Braves are his worse team season.  He hasn't fared to well against Giants and Padres too.

Haruki Murakami - The Elephant Vanishes

Another book of short stories by Murakami.  Much like his other volume of short stories I tend to think that his short story ability doesn't stand up to his longer novels.  He is such a big story kind of writer I think he has a hard time condensing things into a shorter realm.  Below are some of what I care to remember...

Of course it is hard to get into a book when the first story is just a chapter from The Wind Up Bird Chronicle (which up to this point is probably my second favorite novel by him).  

The Second Bakery Attack - Come on robbing a McD's for 30 Big Macs?  Really?

On Seeing the 100% Perfect Girl... - Could you miss your soul mate?

Sleep - A typical creepy Murakami story, the Stephen King of Japan?

A Window - Probably my favorite in this collection

Greg Rucka - Smoker

The plot thickens for Atticus.  Interesting to see where Rucka continues to take his character.  Third book in and I generally don't like Atticus.  Mark of a good writer?  I still want to know what happens.  This one with his characters firmly in place continues to allow them to grow.  

Looking at his future books the master assassin seems to take more center stage.  Not for sure if I like that direction but hey don't like Atticus anyway so what does it matter :)

Haiku Wednesday

August

Summer's last hurrah
Time away before school starts
Daily grind returns...

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-3 week against the Dodgers and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 51-57.  Ten games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 26-26 at home and 25-31 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 494-483 (expected wins is 53 versus historical wins at 50). On pace for 77 wins with 725 runs scored and 741 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox concluded their nine day West Coast swing with a 4-5 record.  With all the trade talk and stress of traveling, I guess Rox should look at this trip as a positive.  The frustration has got to be in their play at home.  To have only one more win at home then the road pretty much sums up the Rox this year.  In additon to their miserable home play, I think this quote by Tulo also suggests why home as been so frustrating, "There have been a couple of times where I thought we were going to get momentum and go on a run, and we weren't able to win, it's kind of the story of the season."  Home is where hot streaks start and if you can't get it done there, doing it on the road can be tough. 

Ubaldo Jimenez
And now to the hard part.  If this team is going to get back to 0.500 this year, then it is going to be done without their ace.  Traded on Saturday to the Cleveland Indians for 4 prospects (3 pitchers and utility man), O'Dowd is once again betting that he can roll the dice, trade a gem in Jimenez, and get something more.

As a fan I hate this deal, but as someone who also understands the landscape of the baseball world this deal is exactly what small market clubs do to stay afloat.  Twins did it with Santana, Indians did it with Sabithia and Lee a few years back...it is finger crossing move on both sides hoping that what transpires in this year for the Indians is positive and next year and year after for the Rox.  Face it, this trade was the result of Rox management failing in the draft especially in pitching.  Four high end pitchers have been taken from 2006 - 2009 and not one is in the big leagues.  This year with the loss of de la Rosa, it showed that a high level draft pick couldn't be slotted in the rotation and instead they had to go with an undrafted AA pitcher to fill in (Nicasio).  How much do Rox have invested in these drafted four pitchers (Reynolds, Weathers, Friedrich, and Matzek) and have yet to see any (if any?) return in .

I criticized O'Dowd for the Holliday deal.  I thought it was just plain awful but time seems to heal the wounds as Street and CarGo have been a pretty good return.  Hopefully in couple years we can say the same for this trade.

So thank you Ubaldo for being a pitcher who helped us get to the World Series in 2007, threw the team's first no hitter, made us proud in the All Star game, and had a heck of a start last year.  Here are some other numbers:

1)  Owns three of the ten best starts in Rox history:

4/17/10 no hitter in Atlanta:
The Chief dominates

Throws the Rox first no hitter
Dexter saves the day!

6/1/11 start this year in LA 4 hit shutout 106 pitch 7 K game:
Return of U-Ball

Ace goes nine, shuts out Dodgers
Ends game with strikeout!

and 5/31/10 in San Fran allowing 4 hits and 9 K:
Take that Halladay

Cy Young in Colorado?
His name, Jimenez
2)  56 - 45 overall record with a team record when starting at 69 - 68 (also went 47 - 29 in the minors).  He spent 10 years in the Rox organization.

3)  Fourth in team history for WAR (at 17.4).

4)  24 - 22 against the NL West (team went 32 - 31 in his starts against the West)  Rox going to miss this!

5)  Only allowed 55 homers in 851 innings pitched.

6)  Faced 3,592 batters and struck out 773 of them

7)  Good thing going to the AL has he only had 37 hits in 370 plate appearances.  Never hit more than a single in those 37 hits

8)  Pitched 67 games at home (30 - 19) and 71 on the road (26 - 26) and amazingly surrendered 189 runs at home and 186 runs away.

9)  Was not a tight game pitcher.  When Rox only scored 0 - 2 runs went 2 - 27 but 26 - 2 when team scored 6+ runs.  Was  28 - 16 when Rox scored between 3 - 5 runs.

10) Got most of his strikeouts on 1-2 and 2-2 counts (478).

11)  ERA in first three innings (3.79), innings 4 - 6 (3.69), and final three innings (2.95).

12)  Only got 48 batters out in foul territory...

13) Threw 14,048 pitches has a starter...8,516 for a strike

14)  He has never thrown in Cleveland.  Owns a 6-4 record against the AL...1-2 against the Tigers

15)  And finally 26 - 17 against teams with less than 0.500 record and 30 - 28 against teams greater than 0.500