11.30.2010

Spider-Man - Brand New Day

Issue 544 was a defining moment in the world of Spider-Man. Love it or hate it, the decision to end the marriage with MJ and return Spidey to his single roots was a new Coke kind of deal and from my perspective this changed actually worked in a big way. While I can understand that true fans would be a bit angry by having 244 issues of continuity erased, the energy and story lines since the change have, I think, invigorated the title. The story lines especially the Gauntlet and Kraven't Last Hunt have been great. Since I started in about a year ago I have gone back and read the beginnings and it was interesting the take. Also amazing (get it?) was because of the writers they actually put out on average about 2 - 3 issues a month. Some really great art came out of issues. Especially love Bachalo and Ramos takes. Hopefully they can keep up the excitement...

11.28.2010

Rox Talk

Symmetry

Baseball, in my opinion, is symmetry not only because of the diamond they play on but also the numbers which serve as the backbone to the game. Take for instance in 2010, the Rox went to bat 6265 times and scored 770 runs (12.3%). So every 100 plate appearances, the Rox scored about 12 runs. And what about 2009? - 12.8%, 2008 - 11.8%, and 2007 - 13.2%. Now granted these aren't exactly the same but it shows a remarkable consistency to the game. A repeatability that makes it stunning that in these four seasons the Rox won 83, 92, 74, and 90 games, respectively (of course there is also pitching too but I will leave that for another post). This elusive predictability frustrates those that watch from the stands wishing and hoping for success. In reality I am glad I don't have to write the paychecks!

Below I have listed some key offensive stats from 2007 - 2010. Year in and year out (at least the last 4 years), Rox get on base about 35% of the time and about 35% of those runners score and more then half of all runners get stranded on base!



It is beautiful if not frustrating...sometimes I have to wonder if by looking at the numbers so much that we lose something in the translation. The real difference between a 83 and 92 win season boils down to a couple of hits, errors, or pitches. Something that really doesn't show up in the numbers...

What Good is Wall Street?
The November 29, 2010 New Yorker had an interesting article on whether Wall Street provides any social good. I won't get into the details but reading it I came across a few passages which struck a nerve especially after reading Joe Posnanski article on the value of closers and setup men. From the New Yorker article the following quotes were made:


"...big banks are forever trying to invent new financial products that they can sell but that their competitors, at least for the moment, cannot."
"Rather than seeking the most productive outlet for the money that depositors and investors entrust to them, they may follow trends and surf bubbles. These activities shift capital into projects that have little or no long-term value..."
"From an economy-wide perspective, this experience suggests that at least some of the profits that Wall Street bankers claim to generate, and that they use to justify their big pay packages, are illusory."

These quotes could be very easily mistaken to be from an examination of baseball management! So when I read Joe's article on whether the closer really matters and I compare it to what bankers seem to be doing then I see this connection. In the last 50 years, teams still win 95% of their games when leading in the ninth inning. If the closer is a relatively new creation then as Joe says you should see some sort of difference but there isn't one. Managers (?), GMs (?), or Players (?), like banks, are creating these new products in an attempt to create value which in the long term is debatable to their worth.

Unfortunately the concept has become so ingrained that trying to do without a closer leads to the infamous 2003 Red Sox experiment. While the concept of rotating situational relief is statistically sound (95%!), fans, players(?), and baseball pundits (same ones who developed the stats in the first place!) claim that teams need a single closer like a child needs their security blanket.
The table below shows what closers (with at least 20 saves) are being paid. On average these closers are being overpaid to tune of about 1.3 million when statistics would seem to indicate that a closer is irrelevant! So much for the herd mentality and tossing out that blanket! And now we talking about conceptualizing a set up man? It is already bad enough that bullpens have left handed specialist (LOOGY) to come in and pitch against power left handed power batters...the speciation of the bullpen is getting to be insane.

11.24.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Candle

An Old Tyme light bulb
That mesmerizing flicker
It makes me sleepy

11.22.2010

Rox Talk

It has been approximately 50 days since the dismal end to a season of much promise. Perhaps it was just my own disappointment. Honestly I felt this team was geared for a playoff run. The numbers suggested a team with ability to win 87 plus games. The pitching was solid with the only question mark being whether Francis could provide some innings after being out of baseball for a year. Offense looked good with a couple of Rookies getting there second look at the big leagues. Bench was well rounded and the manager had an entire off season to piece together what he wanted. What more could you want?

Well since you asked I would say execution, consistency, and less injuries. Fortunately the Rox don't make excuses. Once again they had some injuries which caused some shuffling of the line ups and bullpen but productive replacements were made (i.e. Chacin, Rodgers, EY Jr.). Losing de la Rosa at the start of the year was difficult. Helton spent considerable time with back issues. Tulo and Stewart spent some time recuperating. Took two months for Street to finally get healthy and stabilize the back end of the bullpen. Rox certainly scraped and clawed for the first two months while trying to field their best team and in late September things did start to click but then there was...consistency.

Consistency was lacking especially with some of the older players. Helton started to look old and although we gave up on his power years ago his ability to wear a pitcher down and get a hit seem to disappear from his grasp. Hawpe never really recovered from an injury and was finally released. This potent bat all but disappeared but Rox expected not to miss a beat with Smith finally getting to play everyday. His pinch hitting prowess never materialized on a day to day basis and after a few months he and Spilly began sharing duties in Right. Catching still remains an elusive position for the Rox. While Olivo filled in nicely at first, the long season finally wore him down and Iannetta, once again given the keys to the car, couldn't get it out of first gear. Both Iannetta and Fowler spent considerable time in the minors trying to find their stroke. While Fowler did come back and was successful for about a month he never made the adjustments and began regressing again late in the year. The carousel at Second continues with a whole slew of characters auditioning for the spot. At this time it would seem EY Jr speed and potential spark at the top of the line up trumps any inadequacies at actually playing the position. And finally will Stewart the Hammer please show up? He plays a good Third Base but his inability to put the team on his back at times is frustrating especially with the power that the scouts says he has. Wow re-reading the last paragraph I am amazed the Rox won 83 games!

Finally let's talk execution. Beyond Tulu, CarGo, and Ubaldo (and maybe Belisle) I don't think another Rox came to the park everyday with the goal of making something happen. Granted we can't expect the entire team to click on all cylinders every game but for stretches the Rox need someone else to step up and contribute. That is why Rox carry a 25 man roster. Throw in the inability to do anything on the road only amplified the problem that if Ubaldo wasn't pitching and Tulo and CarGo were quiet (see below) at the plate the team wasn't going to win. To see that the Rox had two players finish in the Top 5 for MVP and another in the Top 3 for the Cy Young ought to make Colorado fans excited about future.



Of course with 2011 on the horizon the Rox can look up to the reigning World Series champion so O'Dowd has his work cut out for him trying to find some pieces to make this team win. Of course if we could just get our pieces to work now we might not have to spend too much on the open market. Anyway here is my take for the 2011 team for now:

C - Iannetta (McHenry)
1B - Helton (Free Agent)
2B - EY Jr (Herrera)
3B - Stewart (Free Agent)
SS - Tulo
LF - CarGo
CF - Fowler
RF - Smith
Bench - Spilly

1 - Ubaldo
2 - Hammel
3 - (Free Agent)
4 - Chacin
5 - Cook/Rogers/Paulino

Closer - Street
SetUp - Betancourt
Pen - M. Reynolds
Belisle
Daley

Don't think Mora or Giambi will be coming back. de la Rosa isn't coming back so will need a starter or two (or three). Cook might be a functional 5th starter but unless he can find his sinker he will be done (maybe we could have him just pitch at PetCo?). Overall I don't think we are too far from making it happen. Question is as a fan do you want to remain just a year in year out contender (Twins) or do we want to make a full frontal assault (Marlins) and be mediocre for a couple of years? Is the Twin Fan happy to make a quick exit to the Yankees every year or is Marlin fan reveling in the fact he has two more rings than the Twins do in the last 20 years? I'll take a ring please!

11.17.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Stuffing

A double meaning
Not just the turkey, but me
Don't forget the Pie

11.14.2010

Mike Vaccaro - The First Fall Classic

Mike Vaccaro in his book, The First Fall Classic: The Red Sox, The Giants, and the Cast of Players, Pugs, and Politicos Who Reinvented the World Series in 1912, relives what he believes to be the first real World Series. Obviously the year is 1912 and baseball is still a relatively new thing, at least in the big scheme of things.
Amazing thing about this book is baseball is still baseball. Reading the book is just like reading a World Series in any other year. The only difference is the gamblers and the cheap seats ; ). Either way I thought this was an interesting read. Interesting to see how betting was pretty integral to the game. One thing I have always thought was weird was how football has embraced the betting aspect and how because of it, football is such a popular sport. Interesting to see how betting plays a role and of course we see the eventual outcome of it when the Black Sox throw the series a few years later. Wonder if football would take a hit in this day and age if it ever came to light that the NFL threw a game because of betting?

11.12.2010

The Greatest Sting Ever...

The older I get, the more I wish I could be a kid and just tune out what the American Political System has become. In this article by N. Kristof, he sums it up pretty succinctly. The reason I call the latest election "The Greatest Sting Ever..." is that the Republicans, who seem to think tax cuts for gazillionaires is a good thing and oh by the way let's fight a couple of wars too is that these new Republicans were swept into office by the very people whose wages have stagnated, whose sons and daughters are off fighting our wars, and the ones who can at least afford what the Republicans seek. It is amazing how the once great middle class is becoming hemorrhaged so that the rich can get richer. Think any of those Wall Street execs who gambled our money away is going to give back their million dollar bonuses? Wake up America...there is nothing wrong with making money, but let's not equate working hard to just plain stealing.

11.09.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Blanket

It's warm and cozy
Friend against old man Winter
Renewing old times

11.08.2010

Am I This Bad?

While traveling and probably feeling woe as I hate to be away from my family I came across this quote in the 11/9/10 USA Today Entertainment Section,
"...believes some people use stress as an excuse for unhealthy or self indulgent behaviours: "I didn't do this" or "I'm drinking" or "I need a massage every week because I'm under stress." Americans don't realize "how good we have it"..."
Do I use stress to justify some of my behaviours? Hmmm perhaps I should suck it up a bit?

11.03.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Nothing

No words to describe
Blank sheet, an empty blackboard
Wasted time to read...