Rox Talk

With the flip of the calendar we move on from 2011 and turn our sights to 2012.  April 6 in Houston is only 93 days away.  60 days away from opening of Spring Training games.  Not much time for O'Dowd to work his magic and try to find a second and third basemen.  Hard to believe that this late we are still looking for infielders especially a second baseman.  Third I can understand as we are simply looking for a place holder but realistically since Matsui, we haven't had a day to day position player at second.  

Below are my scatter thoughts for 2012 in no particular order:

1)  Which Fowler will show up for the entire season?

2)  Will we have good Helton or bad Helton?

3)  Can the Tulo/CarGo dynamic duo hit on all cylinders this year?

4)  Will Cuddyer be worth the money?

5)  Who will step up from the youth movement (GenR^2)?

6)  Chacin be a number one?

7)  Betancourt continues his dominant end of the year performance in 2011?

8)  Will the lack of a second and third basemen hurt our chances this year?

9)  Will Nicasio be back?

10) Will De la Rosa be a force or tentative in his return?

11) Can Rox stay in the hunt until de la Rosa returns?

12) Have we see the last of Smith and EY Jr?

13) How will White and Pomeranz hold up in the Sophomore campaigns?

14) Can Tracy find the right buttons to push?

15) Can we be competitive in the NL West?

16) Everyone has a chance, can Rox play with expectations finally?

17) Can Rox return to dominance at home?

18) Will Giambi show his age or keep going long?

19) Who and what will be the X-Factor this year?

Happy New Year...Go Rox!

Rox Talk

Coors Field has existed for 17 years. Born in the age of steroids Coors Field has never shaken it's past, even with the advent of the humidor. According to ESPN's ball park factors, Coors Field ranked third in runs scored in 2007 with a 1.16 factor or 16% more runs scored then at an average park (behind Fenway and Wrigley); 2008 Coors was third with a 1.126 factor (behind Chase and Ballpark in Arlington); 2009 Coors was first with a 1.247 factor; again in 2010 Coors was first with a 1.364 factor; and in 2011 Coors was second with a 1.347 factor (behind Ballpark in Arlington). Clearly Coors Field is still a place where runs are not a premium!  In the end, humidor or not, you can't add air and thus batted balls tend to travel 9% farther then at sea level (according to the Rox official website).

In addition to the ball traveling farther, giving the offense a boost, the pitchers have their own trouble because balls tend not to move as much in the thinner air.  So ultimately a perfect storm arrives when the ball and bat meet at home plate.  In the past, the Rox seemed to have the advantage when playing at Coors Field, where they have won more than 57% of their games from 1995 - 2010 versus 40% away.  In 2011 the opposite seemed true as opponents took advantage and Rox only finished 38-43 at home versus 35-46 on the road.  Over the years the effects of Coors Field has been debated especially in regards to a "hangover" effect that might exist when Rox return after a road trip.  My question then -- is there such a thing?

In this specific installment, I am looking at the games played from 2007 - 2011 (recent).  In future installments I will look at 2002 - 2006 (Gen R) and the 1995 - 2001 (pre-humidor).  To begin, is there a break in period for the offense when they return?  I have sorted through the Rox schedule and annotated games played since returning from a road trip.  First game back is Game 1 followed by Game 2 etc.  I then compiled each of the stats for "Game 1" and so forth.  Comparing these compiled stats should reveal the differences between the Rox offense when they first get home and after they adjust to the intricacies of Coors Field.  The graph below shows the average number of hits, walks, and strikeouts for all Game 1's (i.e. all Game 1 data during the season following a road trip) through Game 10.  Averages are used due to the fact that there were 59 Game 1's versus only 8 Game 10's.

Average number of hits, walks, and strikeouts for games after returning from a road trip

While both hits and strikeouts show a very small upward trend, the differences aren't overly dramatic. What is interesting is how Game 4 and Game 8 show a decrease.  Have to wonder if this isn't related to a new team coming into town and showing a different pitching philosophy (?).  Besides these average values what about percentages?  The graph below shows on base, slugging, and BABIP.

Percentages for games after returning from a road trip

Again nothing dramatic except for a Game 4 downturn in which slugging percentage seems to dive (this is a relative nose dive as the slugging percentage for Game 3s is 0.474 and Game 4s is 0.428 which over 50 games is about 3 bases!).  One has to wonder (and perhaps conclude) that not only do the Rox have to adjust but the team coming in does as well and whatever hangover might exist it is neither advantageous to the Rox or the opposition.  Although looking at the Win Loss column below it does appear Rox settle in and teams coming in later during a home stand are at a disadvantage.  Do note that Games 7 - 10 only amount to 69 total games of the 399 home games played after a road trip (Home games starting the season were not counted).

Winning percentage when returning from a road trip

To further coincide with my comment about both teams having a disadvantage when coming to Denver, the graph below includes not only the offense hits, walks, strikeouts (shown in the first graph above) but also now includes what the opposition is doing in sequential games.  It should be noted that the opposition's numbers are only for our pitching staff and not broken down by different team game numbers.  Eerily, hits and strikeouts are fairly consistent but Rox do show some advantage in the walk department.

Rox offense versus pitching when returning from a road trip

Overall the numbers don't appear to show a "hangover" effect when Rox return from a road trip.  Whatever effect exists seems to show up in both teams as they cope with the altitude.  While the raw numbers don't show that the Rox get comfortable, their winning percentage, the longer the home stand lasts seems to favor some sort of positive effect.

Part II will see if the length of the road trip plays a role in the Rox offense and pitching and whether flying east or west matters...

Rox Talk

Hot Stove Update

Winter meetings have come and gone and all Rox did was sign a Los Angeles Angel cast off in Brandon Wood.  A former first rounder who has the ability to play 3B, SS, and 1B and has a 0.186 batting average in 272 major league games.  Hard to imagine that Wiggington will be playing for the Rox next year with Wood in the pocket and Pacheco in the fold (minor update:  Wiggy got sent to Philadelphia for a PTBNL).

Players continue to flirt with the Rox but in the end I think they are just using us to get what they really want.  Sizemore appears ready to re-up with the Indians.  Prado still seems an option but it really makes no sense in why the Braves would let a multi-utility player go when you have an aging 3B in Chipper Jones.  It seems they want a center fielder and while Rox have dangled Seth Smith, again which doesn't make sense for the Braves has they have a right fielder in Heyward.  Guess it will come down to how much Rox think they need either a 2B/3B versus Dexter Fowler.  Has Fowler turned a corner?  Couple of stints in the minors over the last few years kind of indicates that perhaps he still doesn't get it.  With him becoming arbitration eligible in 2012 and having Scott Boras as his agent maybe letting him return to his hometown for a infielder wouldn't be such a bad idea?  Time will tell...

Finally while it is nice that Oswalt has shown some interest in coming to Coors, I think ultimately the Rox chance of signing him is slim and none!  Again the lack of any real arms in the league and the need out there among all kinds of teams would lead me to believe that once again he will show interest but in the end sign elsewhere.  Humidor baseball still hasn't connected with free agent pitchers...

Finally it seems that baseball is safe for another 5 years without interruption due to players and management coming to an agreement.  Hard to believe with all the labor strife in professional athletics that MLB is suddenly the Rock of Gibraltar!  Included in this was the sale of the Astros and their moving to the AL West in 2013.  Each league will now have 15 teams which then forces inter league to occur every week.  Also an added Wild Card will be added to each league forcing both Wild Card teams to play a one game sudden death with the winner then going on to play one the three Division Leaders.

Cy Young Results
With Clayton Kershaw winning a Cy Young that makes it the 7th time in the last 10 years that a pitcher in the NL West claimed the prize.  Only Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, and Rogers Clemens have broken the mold.  It should also be noted that 6 NL West pitchers have finished second.  Some numbers over the last 10 years:

Maybe the fact that 3 of the better pitching parks in baseball reside in the NL West?  Either way Rox offense day in and day out do face some monsters.  Lucky us we get to play our oppenents 18 times a year!

Rox Talk

My month long hiatus is over.  Time to get back to the blog.  My official endpoint for the season is when the Rocky Mountain SABR has had their end of the year banquet.  SABR is a fantastic baseball group bringing together a lot of different baseball takes.  Last night was the 14th annual version of the end of the year gathering.  This year's guest speakers were Rob Neyer, SBNation, and John Thorn, MLB Historian.

Rob Neyer talked about his meandering journey to becoming a baseball writer.  From a diehard Royal fan, to discovering SABR, and then finally interning with Bill James.  This then launched his career into book writing and a stint at ESPN.com and finally the National Baseball Editor for SBNation.  A fascinating point that Rob made that I had forgotten before the age of internet was when teams played late night games on the West Coast the morning papers normally didn't have box scores for that game and you had to wait for the night edition of the town's competing paper.  Wow how times have changed with instantaneous box scores!  We are spoiled by the information at our fingertips...of course this could be a curse too...

The evening's final speaker was John Thorn who was appointed the MLB official game historian.  Plugging his new book, Baseball in the Garden Eden: The Secret History of the Early Game, Thorn gave a nice presentation on the misleading origin of baseball from the early 20th Century Mill Commission to the recent Commission put together by Selig this year.  Fascinating talk and he even had some early Denver baseball stories recalling that the probable first profession game in Denver was in October 1888 when the Spalding All Star team arrived in town and played at the old Riverfront Park.  The All Stars won 16-12 with Cap Anson having two triples.  Couple of good quotes by Thorn and I paraphrase (I'm not that fast of a writer), "Cooperstown is the wrong place but a swell place" and a general quote on why baseball is the American Pastime because it "connects boys and girls with their parents"  Also Thorn used the word sagacity (or acuteness of mental discernment and soundness of judgement)!  As aside, to me baseball is in our DNA.  It isn't the most popular or talked about sport but it flows along quietly as the unseen current in the river that is American History!

A nice night by all and now that 2011 is officially closed what can we learn from 2,429 games that were played?

1.  First and foremost...if you can stay within striking distance by September you can still get to the Playoffs...Tampa and St Louis proved this.
2.  If you can get into the playoffs the second season starts and all bets are off.  Your 162 game record means nothing!
3.  You can lose you second best pitcher and still win the World Series (no excuses Rox...)
4.  Baseball is confounding!  Numbers in short series really don't matter...thanks for playing Phillies, your three headed pitching monster meant nothing.
5.  Good managers can make teams better (LaRussa and Gibson)

And now what can I say about our team?  I have remarked about this once or twice before but this has to be the most disappointing team in Rox history.  For a team that was marked to win its first division title it got nowhere.  Some thoughts:

1.  Rox were unlucky!  Looking at their pythagorean W-L record it suggested that they were a 77-85  team...not a whole lot better but something...
2.  Rox were 38-43 at home!  In their history they have averaged 44-45 wins at home.  Last two seasons they won 51 and 52 respectively.  This season they outscored their opponents at home 439-427.  Thus they were 4 wins short of what they were expected to win.  Still accounting for this they were still 2-3 wins off their average.
3.  Rox played well on the road winning 35 games which was their 4th highest in history and three games better than their average
4.  May was just brutal.  Looking at the pythagorean W-L they were pretty unlucky.  September was also cruel as Rox have always had a good end of the year performance

Rox Historical vs 2011 Winning Percentage

5.  Rox starting pitching took 68 losses which is about 9 losses more than historical average.  Bullpen was 20-21.  Historical average is about 24-24.  Guess this just meant Rox starters were behind early and didn't have a lot of comebacks.  Only had 5 walk off wins and 41 comeback wins.

6.  Gave up 176 home runs with 101 of those coming at home.  

7.  Rox scored the least amount of runs in their history at 735.  The inability to score runs and the lack of offense was an eye opener especially with a team of Tulo and CarGo.  Kind of shows you that to win requires 9 guys!  Simple graph but always good to see...you score more runs than your opponents and you tend to make the playoffs...duh

Runs Scored vs Runs Agains (2000-2011).  Playoff teams in Red and Rox historical in Purple (excluding 94-95 seasons)

8.  No excuses but injuries did hurt the Rox this year.  Inconsistent lineups and players finding their roles not to mention no production at second and third bases.

9.  Great year by Helton, Iannetta, Tulo, CarGo, and Giambi.  Average years by Smith, Wiggington, and Ellis.  Not so good by Fowler, Stewart, and Spilly.  Rox really need some more raw power at the plate.  Need to find their home mojo...teams aren't afraid of Coors and Rox really seem hesitant at home.

10.  Starting pitching was just a struggle especially with U-Ball starting slow and de la Rosa injury.  Chacin and Hammel showed that they are consistently inconsistent.  Cook farewell tour was painful.  Rogers isn't a starter.   Nicasio looks to be something if he can come back.  Bullpen was adequate.

11.  Role and bench players are not good.  Seems like the Rox have a lot of AAAA players especially in the minors and they just can't reach the conclusion that they aren't going to be everyday MLB players...

Overall Rox have something to build on.  Granted they were bad but I don't think as bad as the final record showed.  Of course bottom line they didn't take the next step.  Next year they will have a lot of new faces and some leadership has to step up to suggest that losing 89 games isn't acceptable.  Big mountain to climb is where are they going to find 17 wins next year?

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 1-5 week against the Brewers and Giants. The Rox currently stand at 70-82.  Seventeen and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 38-40 at home and 32-42 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 722-694 (expected wins is 73 versus historical wins at 70). On pace for 75 wins with 740 runs scored and 770 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.96 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Is this the most disappointing team in Rox history?  To me there are eerily similarities between this team and the 2008 team.  In 2008, Rox were coming off their World Series run and besides having the same team intact went out and finished with 74 wins.  This year, with even greater expectations based on the Tulo, CarGo, de la Rosa signings, this team was certain to compete with Giants (4-11 head to head so far) and maybe win their first division title.  In both years expectations shackled the team and obviously this year's team has dealt with injuries.

Going into the season the expectations were that the offense would be OK.  This turned out to be wrong.  Team never seemed to get on track.  CarGo struggled out of the gate, Dex again spent time in the minors, Stewart was a complete bust, second base a black hole, and Smith, a very average player, did OK but Rox need more power from their outfield.  Tulo had his moments and frighteningly still had a monster year, imagine some consistency and some consistency around him in the batting order (?). In the end only Helton had a year worth remembering.

Pitching was to be the mainstay with U-Ball, de la Rosa, Chacin, Hammel, and Rogers/Cook.  And for the most part pitching was the reason for the monster start with some timely hitting.  But U-Ball never got on track, de la Rosa got hurt, Chacin still too young to be anchoring a staff, and well Hammel is Hammel.  He will get you 10-12 wins and lose 10-12.  Rogers/Cook never really settled in due to injuries.  In the end this year will be blamed on the Staff and injuries due to this Staff.

Bullpen was OK.  Had a rough patch middle of the season and of course the roller coaster ride that is Huston Street but at least in the off season management doesn't have to worry too much about the relief corp. As a fan this season hurt the most.  2008 we were still feeding off the World Series.  It has been a long 4 years now and this season was supposed to be different...problem is will 2012 truly be any different?

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-3 week against the D-Backs and Reds. The Rox currently stand at 69-77.  Fifteen and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 38-36 at home and 31-41 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 683-671 (expected wins is 72 versus historical wins at 69). On pace for 77 wins with 745 runs scored and 758 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

With the white flag officially raised, late 2011 (or really early 2012) Spring Training is in full swing.  Newcomers Pacheco, Rosario, and Pomeranz will see significant playing time in preparation for next year.  With the Tulsa Drillers (Rox AA affiliate) in full review, is this a positive or negative?  The biggest negative is this year's squad, as constructed, couldn't get it done.  A Fowler, CarGo, Smith, Helton, Lopez, Tulo, Stewart, Iannetta lineup with Jimenez, de la Rosa, Hammel, Rogers, and Cook staff did not have sufficient talent to get to the playoffs (I still question where did that April team go?).  Hard to believe, with the loss of one pitcher, the Rox season was derailed.  So essentially the loss of de la Rosa started to expose the core that led to the dismal output of what is projected to be a 77 win season (10 games off what was expected as a minimum).  So if 2011 lineup and staff couldn't get those extra 10 wins does Pomeranz, White, Pacheco, and Rosario going to provide that something extra?

So the 2012 lineup at this point is probably Fowler, CarGo, Mr. X, Helton, Ellis, Tulo, Pacheco (?), and Rosario with a staff consisting of Chacin, Pomeranz, White, Millwood (?), and Mr. Y (or Hammel or Rogers) with de la Rosa and possibly Nicasio coming in late in the Summer.  Pitching would seem to be stocked although can Rox really rely on an inconsistent number one, two rookies, a cagey veteran, and some makeshift fifth starter? With such inexperience I could see the Rox sinking into no man's land until the cavalry comes in.

Which brings me to CarGo's announcement about "needing help"  He succinctly put it that him and Tulo have had a statistically wonderful year and yet the team find themselves 8 games under 0.500. What sort of help might that be and what could the Rox legimately go after in the Fall?  Look at the Brewers...they surrounded their two monster bats with mostly pitching.  Problem is the Rox have never been overly successful at luring decent pitching to Coors.  Free agent pitchers for next year include C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt (options remaining), Ryan Dempster (options remaining), Aaron Harany, Jeff Francis (!), Javier Vazques, and Paul Maholm.  Nothing jumps out to me as a possibly Mr. Y.  Of course Rox have some trade bait and some money so we shall see.

As far as Mr. X -- the early prediction appears to be Michael Cuddyer but with the Pujols and Fielder sweepstakes who knows what the Rox can steal?  Anyhoo they have six months to figure it out before next season starts.

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-4 week against the D-Backs and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 66-74.  Fourteen games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 35-33 at home and 31-41 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 636-653 (expected wins is 68 versus historical wins at 66). On pace for 76 wins with 736 runs scored and 756 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.97 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

And that is the end of the 2011 season.  Not that the Rox really had a chance but being swept in Arizona ended any remote possibilities that the Rox could sneak in.  With 22 games remaining, the 2012 campaign gets a looksee.  September call ups sweep in and hopefully add some bright spots to an otherwise forgettable 2011 season.  As a fan this season more than any other one since at least 2007 was the worse ever.  It also eerily parallels the 2008 season.  This one is probably worse because of the off season signings, the April dominance, and finally just the complete collapse of the starting pitching.  Without going too far into an end of season posting, I guess the Rox really need to look at what it is that they are missing.  Tulo and CarGo are both going to walk away with fine seasons.  Two potent weapons make the Rox at least competitive on paper but I think management needs to take away from this season is that two players can't elevate a team to win.  Young position players can't make a leap and contribute and that team needs to start truly evaluating what it has.  I think we saw that with U-Ball trade.  Let's hope they continue this Fall.

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 4-2 week against the Astros and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 64-70.  Ten and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in third place. Currently 35-33 at home and 29-37 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 624-619 (expected wins is 67 versus historical wins at 63). On pace for 77 wins with 748 runs scored and 754 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.99 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox finally have a decent home stand going 7-2 and sweep the Astros last week.  Face it the Rox aren't going anywhere this year.  Management has done its best to indicate they aren't throwing in the towel and continue to talk like there is still an outside chance to squeak into the playoffs.  Waiver claim on Wandy Rodriquez at least indicates there willingness to make something happen.  When the season is over pitching problems will probably define this lost season and so I applaud Rox for at least making an effort.

Unfortunately we then compare a nice three game sweep to almost getting swept in LA over the weekend. Media types would like us to think that LA and the owner problems swirling around the team would describe why they are in 4th place and treading water.  The problem I see is that not much separates LA from our Rox.  Both have some nice young starting pitching (well we used to have UBall and Kershaw, Chacin and Billingsly), decent bullpen, some nice offensive pieces (like Kemp and Either/Loney against Tulo and CarGo), and good dugout coaches and you know what?  Both teams are 6 - 8 games under 0.500 and going no where this year.  Kind of shows you that a lot of nice individual pieces don't always fit together to form a complete team.

And the worst thing about all of this?  Yup D-Backs were 80 to 1 odds to win the world series (worse in our division) while our Rox were 20 to 1 and who gets the opportunity in October...yup that would probably by the D-Backs.  Yikes baseball can sure mess with us.

Understatement of the Year
"I wonder where we would be if we had 50-55 more RBIs from third base. Been an issue all year," Tracy said


Look What I Did
I sent this along...

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 4-2 week against the Marlins and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 60-68.  Nine and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in third place. Currently 32-33 at home and 28-35 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 588-581 (expected wins is 63 versus historical wins at 60). On pace for 76 wins with 735 runs scored and 744 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.99 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

So hypothetically, based on runs scored vs runs against, Rox should be 63-65 and thus possibly only 6.5 games back from leading the division (assuming Rox had some luck on their side this year).  In addition let's also assume they are playing 0.600 at home (average over the last 4 years) which means Rox should have about 38 wins at home this year versus the 32 they currently have.  So let's say they aren't raking at home but still winning at home then Rox should be sitting at maybe 66 - 62 right now and about 3.5 back?  How frustrated are you now with Rox season?  Amazing to think that we throw in some luck and better home record and realistically Rox aren't that far away from contending in the West.  Now of course the reason for close run differential is attributable to a bunch of blow out wins at home.

1 run (18-23)
2 runs (11-12)
3 runs (11-12)
4 runs (4-5)
5 runs (4-5)
6 runs (2-4)
7 runs (2-3)
8+ runs (7-4)

Yup when you lead in the 8+ runs department it shows our Rox have about 24 run swing differential going for us.

So looking at the record it looks like we should be a little better off...what about season projections?  75% through the season the offense looks like this (note: projections were based on who likely was going to be the starters throughout the season):

Blue is last season's numbers, yellow is the average from the experts (with error), and the next three are final 162 projection after each quarter.  First quarter had a lot of super stars who then fell back to earth the second quarter.  Third quarter has come back and for the most part CarGo, Fowler, Helton, Tulo, Smith, Iannetta, and Wiggy have lived up to expectations.  Amazing thing is even with these seven players living up to expectations the team is on pace to score about 75 runs less than expected.

And the pitchers?

Mostly just a mess.  U-Ball was certainly not what we expected.  De la Rosa got hurt and Cook was hurt before finally coming back.  Chacin has been good but has struggled and Hammel has just regressed.  Bullpen has been steady although the Paulino thing never worked out.  Fill ins like Nicasio were huge and currently the runs allowed projection is about on based on what was expected.

Hard to believe but it is the offense holding our Rox back!

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-5 week against the Philies and Nats. The Rox currently stand at 53-62.  Ten games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 28-31 at home and 25-31 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 529-518 (expected wins is 56 versus historical wins at 54). On pace for 75 wins with 730 runs scored and 745 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

So much for some home cooking.  Not that going against the Phillies is an easy task (swept away) but to split the series with the Nats just goes to show how miserable home has been for our Rox.  Interesting that within the past couple of weeks the media, fans, and management have started to realize our Rox aren't very good on the major league roster and don't have much in the minors either.  Funny how before the season started the organization seemed to be moving in the right direction and yet with the pathetic season in front of us the big questions come out to suggest that not all is all rosy for our hometown team.

I thought this season projection was a bit off when it came out but now I am not so sure...this quote pretty much sums it up, "If you were looking for a definition of a stars and scrubs lineup, this would be as good an example as any."  Guess our scrubs didn't do it and to think we got rid of Don Baylor because our scrubs stopped relating to Baylor...check the standings scrubs how those D-Backs getting along with Baylor? Maybe management needs to start being realistic next year...and stop listening to the scrubs.

Todd Helton
The other night when listening to some broadcast someone mentioned that one of the players had reached 650 plate appearances against one team and had such such numbers.  Since 650 plate appearances is approximately a season, the question would be what would Helton's seasons numbers be against the teams he has faced.  For what it is worth Todd has only has 650 plate appearances for teams against the NL West foes but one can extrapolate based on 650 plate appearances.  For comparison Todd has averaged 28 homers, 103 RBIs, and has batted 0.323.

Toss out Rays, Twins and Athletics, Todd has had some phenomenal team seasons against Nats, Cards, Astros, Marlins, Dodgers, Philies and Pirates.  Interesting to note that Rox have always struggled against the Braves and so does Todd.  Besides the AL teams the Braves are his worse team season.  He hasn't fared to well against Giants and Padres too.

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-3 week against the Dodgers and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 51-57.  Ten games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 26-26 at home and 25-31 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 494-483 (expected wins is 53 versus historical wins at 50). On pace for 77 wins with 725 runs scored and 741 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox concluded their nine day West Coast swing with a 4-5 record.  With all the trade talk and stress of traveling, I guess Rox should look at this trip as a positive.  The frustration has got to be in their play at home.  To have only one more win at home then the road pretty much sums up the Rox this year.  In additon to their miserable home play, I think this quote by Tulo also suggests why home as been so frustrating, "There have been a couple of times where I thought we were going to get momentum and go on a run, and we weren't able to win, it's kind of the story of the season."  Home is where hot streaks start and if you can't get it done there, doing it on the road can be tough. 

Ubaldo Jimenez
And now to the hard part.  If this team is going to get back to 0.500 this year, then it is going to be done without their ace.  Traded on Saturday to the Cleveland Indians for 4 prospects (3 pitchers and utility man), O'Dowd is once again betting that he can roll the dice, trade a gem in Jimenez, and get something more.

As a fan I hate this deal, but as someone who also understands the landscape of the baseball world this deal is exactly what small market clubs do to stay afloat.  Twins did it with Santana, Indians did it with Sabithia and Lee a few years back...it is finger crossing move on both sides hoping that what transpires in this year for the Indians is positive and next year and year after for the Rox.  Face it, this trade was the result of Rox management failing in the draft especially in pitching.  Four high end pitchers have been taken from 2006 - 2009 and not one is in the big leagues.  This year with the loss of de la Rosa, it showed that a high level draft pick couldn't be slotted in the rotation and instead they had to go with an undrafted AA pitcher to fill in (Nicasio).  How much do Rox have invested in these drafted four pitchers (Reynolds, Weathers, Friedrich, and Matzek) and have yet to see any (if any?) return in .

I criticized O'Dowd for the Holliday deal.  I thought it was just plain awful but time seems to heal the wounds as Street and CarGo have been a pretty good return.  Hopefully in couple years we can say the same for this trade.

So thank you Ubaldo for being a pitcher who helped us get to the World Series in 2007, threw the team's first no hitter, made us proud in the All Star game, and had a heck of a start last year.  Here are some other numbers:

1)  Owns three of the ten best starts in Rox history:

4/17/10 no hitter in Atlanta:
The Chief dominates

Throws the Rox first no hitter
Dexter saves the day!

6/1/11 start this year in LA 4 hit shutout 106 pitch 7 K game:
Return of U-Ball

Ace goes nine, shuts out Dodgers
Ends game with strikeout!

and 5/31/10 in San Fran allowing 4 hits and 9 K:
Take that Halladay

Cy Young in Colorado?
His name, Jimenez
2)  56 - 45 overall record with a team record when starting at 69 - 68 (also went 47 - 29 in the minors).  He spent 10 years in the Rox organization.

3)  Fourth in team history for WAR (at 17.4).

4)  24 - 22 against the NL West (team went 32 - 31 in his starts against the West)  Rox going to miss this!

5)  Only allowed 55 homers in 851 innings pitched.

6)  Faced 3,592 batters and struck out 773 of them

7)  Good thing going to the AL has he only had 37 hits in 370 plate appearances.  Never hit more than a single in those 37 hits

8)  Pitched 67 games at home (30 - 19) and 71 on the road (26 - 26) and amazingly surrendered 189 runs at home and 186 runs away.

9)  Was not a tight game pitcher.  When Rox only scored 0 - 2 runs went 2 - 27 but 26 - 2 when team scored 6+ runs.  Was  28 - 16 when Rox scored between 3 - 5 runs.

10) Got most of his strikeouts on 1-2 and 2-2 counts (478).

11)  ERA in first three innings (3.79), innings 4 - 6 (3.69), and final three innings (2.95).

12)  Only got 48 batters out in foul territory...

13) Threw 14,048 pitches has a starter...8,516 for a strike

14)  He has never thrown in Cleveland.  Owns a 6-4 record against the AL...1-2 against the Tigers

15)  And finally 26 - 17 against teams with less than 0.500 record and 30 - 28 against teams greater than 0.500

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-4 week against the Braves and D-Backs. The Rox currently stand at 48-54. Eleven games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 26-26 at home and 22-28 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 466-457 (expected wins is 50 versus historical wins at 48). On pace for 76 wins with 726 runs scored and 740 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

The Real World
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has been diagnosed with leukemia.  I don't know Dave but his work has been a bedrock of the baseball stat world (Mt Rushmore maybe?).  As baseball nerds, we certainly can get buried in the minutia of the game.  I found this to be an interesting quote from someone who does play the numbers game,

"History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking..."

I think it is helpful for us all to remember that while baseball stats do tend to show tendencies and likely outcomes, the human element can make a difference even if it doesn't show up in the box score.  That is why I think Dave will beat this because he is a baseball fan and understands the numbers don't always decide who wins or loses.  Does Dave Roberts steal of second base in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS a statistic blip or does it show what the human element can do to influence a win or to live life?

Of course looking at the Rox it has been an incredibly disappointing season.  Once again expectations were so great and 100 games into the season all we have to show for it is a close to .500 season.  Numbers would seem to have been in our favor but somewhere that human element showed up and no matter what the numbers say in the end we sometimes just shrug our shoulders and hope maybe it will be better next year...Cubs fans sure hope so ;)

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-2 week against the Brewers. The Rox currently stand at 45-50. Nine and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 24-24 at home and 21-26 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 422-421 (expected wins is 47 versus historical wins at 44). On pace for 77 wins with 718 runs scored and 720 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.00 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Double Plays

In a tweet by @schoolofrox he she wondered if Rox double play machine was that good or our defense is just given too many opportunities or chances to excel? Data from Baseball Reference kindly tabulates (see below) the number of opportunities (Opp) in which the opposing team has a runner on first with less than two outs and the number of double plays. Data shows Rox are below average in opportunities and extremely good at getting the opposing team to hit into a double play.

All Star Game

Another exciting (note the sarcasm) All Star game in the books.  For the second year in a row, the NL wins thus ensuring home field advantage in the World Series.  Unlike other games this one seemed lopsided from the start.  The NL pitching roster was just filthy while most of the AL star pitchers were watching this one on TV.  Not for sure if the players felt that way too but it seemed the NL was in it to win it while the AL just simply went through the motions.  Not a lot of excitement from the AL.  Kind of disheartening...

U-Ball Trade Rumors

Popping up in some twitter feeds and blog postings is the thought that the Rox are listening to possible trade propositions for U-Ball's services.  Funny how rumors like this start.  Suddenly we hear that U-Ball is disgruntled because of the money shelled out to CarGo and Tulo this past fall.  We hear management has been frustrated with undisclosed injuries and what not.  Certainly a situation ripe for conspiracy baseball theorist but I have to think a lot of this is just not true. 

I don't know U-Ball personally but he seems like a nice kid.  Doesn't need his ego fed.  As far as his lackluster finish last year and struggles this year it would seem that maybe we don't know the whole picture.  I give credit at least for the Rox listening.  Some teams might get desperate and with our salary impairments being able to rake in a treasure trove of players might just be the way to get things done (i.e. Texas Rangers?). 

It is obvious to me that 2011 is done and like it or not this current make up isn't going to get it done.  Too many holes to fill and certain players haven't developed as planned.  Rox threw the dice and came up empty.  Rox aren't going into the free agent market to remake this team so really the only way to get better on paper is to trade a high value pitcher and hope prospects get us to the next level.

Sure hate to see a fireballer get sent away but baseball takes 25 guys and right now the three O's aren't enough to even win the NL Wild West...how are we going to beat the likes of Philadelphia or Atlanta?  That is why I don't buy jersey with a player's name on it because in the Colorado market who know what Dealin' Dan might just do...

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-5 week against the Braves and Nationals. The Rox currently stand at 43-48. Eight and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 22-22 at home and 21-26 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 407-395 (expected wins is 44 versus historical wins at 43). On pace for 77 wins with 703 runs scored and 725 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.97 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

First half - Done.  First divisional championship - Unlikely.  Playoff hopes - Doubtful.  No matter how you package the first half, once again the Rox have been disappointing and expectations have not been met.  Over the last two years, coming into the season, the management, team, media, and fans have all come to a conclusion that this would be the year.  The year to finally compete with the big boy teams and make another run to the World Series.  Throw in the fact that this year, the Rox signed Tulo and CarGo to long term deals, re-signed de la Rosa, and signed some nice components off the scrap heap, the Rox had hoped to compete.  Unfortunately after a 17-9 April start, things have gone down hill quickly.  Middle of the road teams like our Rox really need to have all things work.  They don't have the resiliency to have players not play to their perceived capabilities.  Rox are currently on pace to score 703 runs.  Preseason projections expected this team to score close to 800 runs.  Where did all the runs go?  Lowest total in Rox history before this year? 740 in 2005. 

My in season analysis - small payroll team's like the Rox get killed when the run expectancy changes so quickly.  How many teams out there forgot what small ball was?  You build teams 5 years ago at least with an eye on how to win in your league, division, and ball park.  What if the rug gets pulled out from under you and suddenly low scoring, one run games become the norm and yet you build a team on big home run hitters with pedestrian speed?  I think it becomes tough to pull a switcheroo mid season.  You can't just go out and find speed.  Sad thing is our Rox do have some speed and yet he finds himself playing AAA ball. 

All in all, to finish with 90 wins they need to go 48 - 23.  Of course Giants are on pace for 92 wins.  Wild card? Yeah right, Braves are chasing the Phillies (on pace for 101 wins) who are on pace for 95 wins.  So unless the Braves have an epic fail in their final 70 games I think the only chance Rox have to get to the playoffs would be winning the division.  Could Rox win 48 - 50 games in their final 71 games?  In 2007 they went 45 - 26, 2008 36 - 35, 2009 43-28, and 2010 33 - 38.  Don't think lightning is going to strike twice but Giants need to go 38 - 32 to win 90 games.  Sure they could go through a rough spot and Rox could get hot again but it is a pretty steep road to get there!

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-4 week against the Cubs (make up game), White Sox and Royals. The Rox currently stand at 41-43. Six and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 22-22 at home and 19-21 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 382-378 (expected wins is 42 versus historical wins at 39). On pace for 79 wins with 737 runs scored and 729 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.01 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox finish the 2011 interleague schedule 8-7 (DET 45-41, NYY 50-33, CLE 45-38, CHW 43-43 , KCR 34-51).  Giants went 10-5 (CLE 45-38, DET 45-41, MIN 36-46, OAK 38-48), Dodgers went 6-9 (CHW 43-43, DET 45-41, LAA 45-41, MIN 37-46), D-Backs went 10-8 (MIN 37-46, KCR 34-51, DET 45-41, CLE 45-38, OAK 38-48), and Padres went 6-9 (BOS 49-35, KCR 34-51, MIN 36-46, SEA 42-43).  As of today's records, Rox teams faced winning percentage of 0.513, Giants 0.487, Dodgers 0.504, D-Backs 0.470, and Padres 0.479.  What does it all mean?  Probably nothing but Rox still finish well against the interleague rivalries and still find themselves 6.5 games out in the division.  Rox are now 111-112 all time against the AL.

Rox finally realized the second base situation was hopeless and traded for 8 year veteran Mark Ellis.  I give credit to O'Dowd for still trying to make gold out of lead but I think relatively soon our Rox will be sellers.  Face it, a week before the All Star break our Rox stand 41-43 and 6.5 games out.  Can we realistically believe, like everyone else in baseball, the Rox are going to do their late season run?  Throw in the fact that we are in third behind a resurgent D-Backs team that doesn't appear to coming back to the pack and well face it fans this ain't the Rox year (oh yeah CarGo ran into a wall on Sunday).  Although to try and stay positive the graphic below would seem to indicate we're not dead yet or at least 5 teams were division winners after being behind in June!

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/18/2172700/when-is-a-team-out-of-it

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-3 week against the Indians and Yankees. The Rox currently stand at 38-39. Five and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 19-19 at home and 19-20 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 344-338 (expected wins is 39 versus historical wins at 36). On pace for 80 wins with 724 runs scored and 711 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.02 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Time for another rant.  Raise your hand if you think this team is a playoff contender...yeah I didn't think so.  Look I understand we are in the dismal NL West.  The Giants have scored a grand total of 265 runs and given up 269 and find themselves 10 games over 0.500!  Is that sustainable?  Knowing the Giants...yup.  So if we can't win the division then what...look a little deeper and notice where we are in the Wild Card hunt...we sit in 11th place behind the broken team that is the Mets and the likes of Pittsburgh and Washington.  So can the cheerleading stop and therefore put our Rox in the category of most disappointing team ever once again.

We are at the half way point this week almost to the All Star break.  The team has continued to comfort themselves indicating they haven't tanked and just have to get hot.  Yeah well we started the month 4.5 games out after a dismal May have since gone 13-10 only to now find ourselves 5.5 out.  Year in and year out, the Rox can't statistically keep hoping to win 15 of 20 games to get back into it.  It's a nice story to hang our hat on but that is about it.

It's a real shame to waste an All Star year for our aging first baseman who would love the opportunity to give it one more go but his support cast has been lacking.  Management threw the dice on some players that didn't work out, one rookie to fill in is nice but trying it with three probably isn't going to get you there, and well losing your number 2 pitcher is tough to overcome...therefore it is really that amazing Rox find themselves just trying to be competitive.

On the positive side this is an odd year and stranger things have happened...I'll keep watching but come on show some spark!

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 4-2 week against the Padres and Tigers. The Rox currently stand at 35-36. Three and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 19-19 at home and 16-17 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 318-308 (expected wins is 37 versus historical wins at 33). On pace for 80 wins with 726 runs scored and 703 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.03 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Latest fad (or meme) which seems to pop up a bit this year is a team's ability to win series. Teams who win series obviously have winning records.  So far in 2011, the Rox have played 24 series.  If those were all 3 game series and they won them all by taking 2 of 3 games then theoretically the Rox could be 48 - 24 (they have actually played 5 two game series, 15 three game series, and 4 four game series).  So far the Rox are 9-12-3 in series records this year.  The Rox won or tied their first 5 series (4-0-1), then proceeded to go 2-12-1 in the next 15 series, and then have since turned things around by going 3-0-1.  Tale of two seasons so far...April/June - Good and May - Bad!

Of course I can't let it go at that so what about since the Rox inception?  Well there has been 931 series and Rox are 371-452-108.  See table below for specifics. 

Rox are 3-4 in one game series, 19-27-54 in two game series, 302-349 in three game series, 46-71-54 in four game series, and 1-1 in five game series.  For the three and four game series above I also so the break out of how the series was won.  So for instance in three game series the Rox have swept the other team 94 out of 651 times.

What to make of this?  In Rox 19 years of existence, being an expansion team and all, they had some lean years and only recently have they been playing .500 baseball.  Overall their record stands at 1364 - 1490 or 126 games under .500 (figure this they would have to go 90-72 for seven straight years to get back to even!).  Thus looking at the numbers above taking this into account, the two numbers that jump out are the disparity in losses in a three game set and the higher number of 1-3 series losses to 3-1 series wins (55 vs 30). A few more wins in those situations and you would end up with a series tie versus another series loss in a Game 4 set.  Knowing the Rox road woes over the years one can imagine trying to win 2 of 4 in a long series.

Next week I will have the breakdown of series versus teams both home and away...

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 4-3 week against the Padres and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 31-34. Five and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 15-17 at home and 16-17 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 286-280 (expected wins is 33 versus historical wins at 30). On pace for 77 wins with 713 runs scored and 698 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.02 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox are 65 games into the season and sitting three games under 0.500.  Team really hasn't shown any consistency in the last 40 Games.  At the end of Game 25, Rox stood 17-8 with a 4.5 game lead and since then 14 - 26 and are 5.5 back.  What the heck happened? 

Looking at the numbers not all that much!  Frustrating thing about baseball is the numbers don't tell the whole story especially at the macro level.  As much as sabermatricians would like to put everything into a nice box with a label and say that these outcomes makes perfect sense I don't think it is that easy.  Just as they can't find that "clutch" numerical value, I don't think such a turn around the Rox have seen can be valued.  In the end we are dealing with humans, emotions, and like it or not that can't be mathematically evaluated.



Spreadsheet above shows the projected totals (average x 162) for the season if team kept its pace during Games 1-25 or from Games 26-65.  I find looking at the values over a 162 game period is easier to see differences then just averages during these spans of games.  What do we see?

Mixed signals of course.  The team has a whole has been hitting better but that hasn't translated in getting on base more which is partly due to the fact that while the team has gotten more hits, the number of walks has crashed.  The other big number that stands out is the increase number of double plays the team has hit into which leads to less opportunities to drive men in which reduces scoring opportunities.  Also throw in a lack of stolen bases and this really leads to an offense that is seemingly getting on track but really isn't.  I think the story the papers would suggest is that the bats are to blame but based on the numbers the offense has been fairly consistent if not improved in the last 40 games.

I think the real number to look at above is the "On Base" stat.  Nothing real scientific about it, it is just hits+walks+HBP+ROE.  The offense has been pretty consistent but look at our pitching...it would suggest the pitchers have allowed a whole lot more base runners in the last 40 games.  While that doesn't necessary mean more runs, the fact that more runners are getting on base can lead to more runs.  So is our pitching really to blame?

In the end who knows why the Rox are playing like they are.  The conclusion that I come to would suggest this team isn't as good as the pundits suggested.  Rox can't just wait for that 10-15 game win streak to get the going.  Good teams win series and right now the Rox aren't doing that.

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-4 week against the Dodgers and Giants. The Rox currently stand at 27-31. Five and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 13-15 at home and 14-16 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 248-242 (expected wins is 30 versus historical wins at 26). On pace for 75 wins with 693 runs scored and 676 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.02 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

How tough has it been?  Rox scored 10 runs last week!  Throw out the first two games in LA and in the last four games of the week the Rox only allowed 6 runs and only went 2-2 in that stretch.  Oh yeah and don't forget when our Rox got 18 on base against LA and only scored one run!

How tougher has it been?  Hammel pitches a no hitter through five and two-thirds yesterday and Rox still lose 2-1.  The Rox are currently on pace to score 693 runs?  Lowest in team history?  No not yet, that would be 740 in 2005.  That year they finished 67-95 and that is because pitching gave up 862 runs.  This year staff is on pace for almost 40 runs better than their history and Rox are still 4 games under 0.500! 

How toughest has it been?  Rox are 11-17 in the division and 16-14 against everyone else.  In those 28 games in the division Rox have scored 110 and only allowed 119 runs to score (138 vs 123 against everyone else).   Rox should probably should have 2 to 3 more wins...

And this isn't just the Rox, the league average runs scored is down about 10% from 2000 - 2010 and at this rate about 2,400 less runs will be scored in the MLB.

In the end, I remember reading an early season preview indicating that once again the Rox pitching would be solid but the decider would be the offense.  I scowled at such a thought and wonder what moron would ever think a team playing half its games at Coors would have an offense problem...now I no longer balk at such a suggestion.  This team is anemic.  I just haven't seen anything like this before.  The ball has got to start bouncing our way sometime this season, right?  I can't tell you how many times at Coors I have seen a hot shot up the middle only to be snagged by a middle infielder just shading correctly in that direction to make an easy out.  This sums it up, this Tulo article would indicate he his hitting better but actually doing worse!

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-5 week against the D-Backs and Cardinals. The Rox currently stand at 25-27. Three and half games behind the D-Backs(!) for the division lead. Currently 13-15 at home and 12-12 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 238-221 (expected wins is 28 versus historical wins at 24). On pace for 78 wins with 741 runs scored and 689 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.08 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).  Amazing what some high scoring blowouts can do to your run differential and what a bunch of one run losses can do to your record!

Another miserable homestand.  Also time to say goodbye to Paulino (finally) and Lopez (gee we hardly knew you).  Changes abound especially with de la Rosa's injury.  Busy week with the EY Jr and Chris Nelson getting a call back up to the Big City and Big Leagues.  And now the Rox go on a 16 trip through the NL West with 9 on the road in LA, San Fran, and San Diego (sounds like a nice vacation!) followed by LA and Padres coming to town.  Hate to say it this early in the season, but I think this span of games decides the season.  Win less than 7 games and the Rox will bury themselves in the Division.  Sure there will still be 94 games left but after these 16 games through the division, the Rox get Detroit (currently 26-26), Cleveland (31-19), and then the Yankees (28-23).  Not exactly an easy Interleague schedule!

Perhaps the offense will wake up but with the injury to de la Rosa the pitching shuffle begins.  Can Nicasio stick around?  Will U-Ball find his slot?  Can Cook save the day?  The young Chacin start to scuffle?  Starting pitching problems can lead to overused bullpen...what then?

In the end a lot can happen.  Remember 2009 when our Rox were 20-32 and then went on a 17-1 tear?  Rox can get hot and put May behind them for good.  They certainly have the talent but when will it all come together?

Links, Links, and Links
- Recreational sabermetrics?  Well if you think reading scholarly papers is recreational...
- Great article on hitting, glad he left the division.
- Yup with Wilson Valdez getting some love for his win we are reminded of Brent Mayne's win
- When is it too late to have hope?
- And this visually shows U-Ball's early season troubles...