End of Year Wrap Up

Well another orbit around the sun. Only managed 201 posts (5 more than 2009 and I was busy studying) so need to up that total for the new year. Comic reviews continued to suffer and well any sport beyond baseball was non existent (sorry AF football). Overall beyond the baseball, haikus, and occasional book review it was a pretty pathetic year. So this is 2010 in a nutshell:

- 31 books read (favorite, Non-Fiction - "Packing for Mars" / Fiction - "Cosmopolis" and "The Hunger Games" / TPB - "I Kill Giants")

- Best Comics this Year - Spider-Man

- Best Movie seen was "Avatar"

- Favorite Album - XX

- Best Comic Cover was Scott Pilgrim Volume 6

- 58 Haiku's Written

- My Favorites Haiku's

Daylight
Sol makes its comeback
Everlasting solar dance
Your pale skin rejoices

Butterfly
Metamorphosis
Nature's real life magic trick
Version 2.0

Rake
Nature's detritus
Sheds her coat upon the ground
Backs everywhere groan

10/10/10
Date is ten ten ten
Binary is forty-two
The answer to life

Solstice
Sun's shortest work day
Night time stars work overtime
Astronomers smile

Top Posts
39 Circles

Ghost Writers
Mouse Art

Admantium

Second American Revolution

The Greatest Sting Ever...

Top Baseball Posts

2009 Starter's Line

2010 Predictions

Runs Scored or Runs Allowed?

39th Batter

2010 Runs Estimator

2009 Pitching Rotation Match Ups

Periodic Table of the Rox

Win Probability Added - Offense vs Pitchers

Why Am I a Terrible Fan

Symmetry

Top 10 Viewed Features of 2010 on NYTimes.com

Beautiful

Lake Tahoe Milky Way Night Time Lapse from Justin Majeczky on Vimeo.

Good year, things to look for next year....U2 concert (again!), Sucker Punch, Super 8, 1Q84 (Murakami's New Book, Sept '11)

Haiku Wednesday

Ice

Water's evil twin
Plays havoc with modern world
Unless you have skates!

Nassim Taleb - The Black Swan

This book was stunning. Not at all what I expected. Of all the business/human nature/gotcha books that I have read this one struck a cord. Know not an event in the world goes by without me thinking that no one could have predicted it...that is why it happened.

From world events to where I put my money this book can rock some of your core foundations. So much of what we do has been built into our heads and/or we all follow the herd in almost everything we do. The question then is do you follow your own thoughts hoping for that big payoff or do you play it safe and gamble like everyone else?

"It is often said that the world seems to have been built to the specifications that would make our existence possible...However our presence in the sample completely vitiates the computation of the odds...The one who is still kicking (by accident) will feel that, given that he cannot be so lucky, there had to be some transcendental force guiding him and supervising his destiny...The problem here with the universe and the human race is that we are the survivors"

Another thing that was interesting in this book is all deep the author goes off on philosophical rants. Wow never really comprehended some of the inane things people can think about. I was also bit shocked by how arrogant the author was against other economist. Wow talking about taking the gloves off and using your book to slam home your opinions about people. While I certainly belief he is own to something the basic ideal to me is that a black swam is so rare so unexpected that by simply considering it no longer allows you to call it a Black Swan. Think of Katrina or the Housing Bubble...if people really considered these events to be a real probability...chances are it would have never happened...therefore how does the concept become useful?

Other interesting quotes from an otherwise fascinating book....

"A nerd is simply someone who thinks exceedingly inside the box" (i.e. Don't be a nerd)

"Don't be a sucker"

"It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra

"The future ain't what it used to be" - Yogi Berra

Haiku Wednesday

Resolutions

...And out with the old
New goals, fresh slate, refocused
Just one more cookie!

Magazine Tid-Bits

Nintendo is made up of three kanji characters, from nin, ten, and do, which means "leave luck to heaven"

Esquire 1-11 Issue - Collected Wisdom of Others - Things to Live By

"Never eat at a chain restaurant while on vacation"

"Always think fastball. You can adjust to an off speed pitch"

Rox Talk

A Pitch Thrown

In past posts, I have shown how many pitches thrown in an inning typically lead to a run. Data collected from 2008 - 2010 seasons (Rox pitchers and Rox opponent pitchers) indicate that usually 23 pitches lead to a run. Using a best fit curve of the data (run rate calculated as a ratio of total runs scored in an inning per instances of that pitch count), it would indicate in the model that as the pitches go up, the amount of runs increase.

Runs-Pitches
1-23
2-30
3-36
4-41
5-45
6-49
7-52
8-56
9-59
10-62

Although following this logic out, eventually you would be scoring runs without throwing a pitch!Either way it is interesting to see what the break point is but then how quickly runs compared to the number of pitches and how it adds up after the initial run is scored.

One interesting thing to consider when looking at this data is comparing pitchers' runs allowed with pitches thrown in an inning and comparing to what would be expected. For instance, three years of data indicate that if a pitcher throws 13 pitches in an inning then the runs expected for this would be 0.121. Add up the season totals and the table below shows what the 2010 Rox starters did.

Of the eight starters, only two starters had less runs then their expected runs. Jimenez, I can believe, because he throws a lot of pitches (and was saved by a lot of double plays...). Hammel is the troubling one because the data would suggest that he gives up a lot of easy runs which is one way of saying he throws very few pitches but gives up a bunch of runs on low pitch counts. Which is better? Hard to say will have to look back at previous years...

Independent Innings?
One question that comes to mind is if pitching (or offense) is extremely efficient or inefficient in one inning does it effect the next inning? Note the graph below shows pitches in inning x (y-axis) followed by pitches thrown in inning x+1 (x-axis). This is independent of pitcher, so some of the data below could be one pitcher followed by a different pitcher in the following inning. Also it should be noted that 70% of all inning x was between 9 - 20 pitches and in inning x+1 70% was between 8 - 19 pitches. And thus this overlap (meaning inning x had a pitch between 9 - 20 followed by an inning x+1 of between 8 - 19) accounts for 49% of the back to back innings.

Some other observations are that if you pitch inning x between 20 - 68 then 20% of pitches in inning x+1 was less than 20 pitches. If you pitch inning x between 3 - 20 then 17% of pitches in inning x+1 were greater than 20 pitches. Pitching inning x greater than 20 followed by inning x+1 greater than 20 amount to about 8%.

Just one other point and that would be that in 3622 of 7708 instances inning x was less than inning x+1 meaning that generally less pitches are thrown in inning X+1 (53% vs 47%). My guess is that with additional data and data that includes other teams that this number would generally get closer to 50/50 and that generally inning x and inning x+1 are independent. Just for kicks in 2010, Jimenez had 92 instances (out of 194) where he threw more pitches after inning x. It would seem in 2010 he seemed to throw less in inning x+1 then inning x.

Solstice

Sun's shortest work day
Night time stars work overtime
Astronomers smile

Rox Talk

The Year in Graphs

Graph 1 shows Rox 2010 winning percentage versus historical (1993 - 2009) winning percentage and pythagorean winning percentage through the different months of the season. What a great start, too bad the rest of the year was average! Graph 2 shows projected wins versus previous years (2007 - 2009). It was so hopeful midway through the year - then the post All Star hangover, then a late in year surge followed by the awful collapse.
Graph 3 shows the average runs scored per game both home and away. Who loves the humidor? What is with scoring on the road?

Wimisical data for the next three graphs. Home run rates for temperature, wind speed, and wind direction (2007 - 2010, purple points indicate 2010 grey squares is average). Interesting how wind speed doesn't do much for home run rates.

Suzanne Collins - The Hunger Games

"When I wake up, the other side of the bed is cold."

Absolutely fabulous book. This was one of those books that I actually didn't read at times so that it would last longer. Why is it that books written for young adults are better than the drivel that is written for adults. I mean this book just isn't afraid to go down roads that adult writers wouldn't ever touch. I mean to write with such audacity, "Survivor - With Children" Is it meant to be a commentary to adult readers? Do kids and adults read this book differently? Or am I just reading into it?

Haiku Wednesday

Boots

They're made for walking
So says the song - but really?
They make you look cool...

Bits and Pieces

Daniel Handler is Lemony Snicket (and Leslie McFarlane is Frank Dixon better known as Mr Hardy Boys...)

Isca Greenfield-Sanders - Light Leaks - Beautiful

Jim Sanborn - Kryptos - Three parts of this famous enigma have been solved...now a hint has been given for Part IV - Berlin...hmmmm

Nate Silver - Go Figure - Nice article on the flaws of the BCS...

Ski Haiku

Picture perfect run

Not Elks, just some powder tracks

Like knives through butter

Haiku Wednesday

Cookies

I am the Monster
Gimme some tasty morsels
Me like sugar ones!

Spider-Man - Brand New Day

Issue 544 was a defining moment in the world of Spider-Man. Love it or hate it, the decision to end the marriage with MJ and return Spidey to his single roots was a new Coke kind of deal and from my perspective this changed actually worked in a big way. While I can understand that true fans would be a bit angry by having 244 issues of continuity erased, the energy and story lines since the change have, I think, invigorated the title. The story lines especially the Gauntlet and Kraven't Last Hunt have been great. Since I started in about a year ago I have gone back and read the beginnings and it was interesting the take. Also amazing (get it?) was because of the writers they actually put out on average about 2 - 3 issues a month. Some really great art came out of issues. Especially love Bachalo and Ramos takes. Hopefully they can keep up the excitement...

Rox Talk

Symmetry

Baseball, in my opinion, is symmetry not only because of the diamond they play on but also the numbers which serve as the backbone to the game. Take for instance in 2010, the Rox went to bat 6265 times and scored 770 runs (12.3%). So every 100 plate appearances, the Rox scored about 12 runs. And what about 2009? - 12.8%, 2008 - 11.8%, and 2007 - 13.2%. Now granted these aren't exactly the same but it shows a remarkable consistency to the game. A repeatability that makes it stunning that in these four seasons the Rox won 83, 92, 74, and 90 games, respectively (of course there is also pitching too but I will leave that for another post). This elusive predictability frustrates those that watch from the stands wishing and hoping for success. In reality I am glad I don't have to write the paychecks!

Below I have listed some key offensive stats from 2007 - 2010. Year in and year out (at least the last 4 years), Rox get on base about 35% of the time and about 35% of those runners score and more then half of all runners get stranded on base!



It is beautiful if not frustrating...sometimes I have to wonder if by looking at the numbers so much that we lose something in the translation. The real difference between a 83 and 92 win season boils down to a couple of hits, errors, or pitches. Something that really doesn't show up in the numbers...

What Good is Wall Street?
The November 29, 2010 New Yorker had an interesting article on whether Wall Street provides any social good. I won't get into the details but reading it I came across a few passages which struck a nerve especially after reading Joe Posnanski article on the value of closers and setup men. From the New Yorker article the following quotes were made:

"...big banks are forever trying to invent new financial products that they can sell but that their competitors, at least for the moment, cannot."

"Rather than seeking the most productive outlet for the money that depositors and investors entrust to them, they may follow trends and surf bubbles. These activities shift capital into projects that have little or no long-term value..."

"From an economy-wide perspective, this experience suggests that at least some of the profits that Wall Street bankers claim to generate, and that they use to justify their big pay packages, are illusory."

These quotes could be very easily mistaken to be from an examination of baseball management! So when I read Joe's article on whether the closer really matters and I compare it to what bankers seem to be doing then I see this connection. In the last 50 years, teams still win 95% of their games when leading in the ninth inning. If the closer is a relatively new creation then as Joe says you should see some sort of difference but there isn't one. Managers (?), GMs (?), or Players (?), like banks, are creating these new products in an attempt to create value which in the long term is debatable to their worth.

Unfortunately the concept has become so ingrained that trying to do without a closer leads to the infamous 2003 Red Sox experiment. While the concept of rotating situational relief is statistically sound (95%!), fans, players(?), and baseball pundits (same ones who developed the stats in the first place!) claim that teams need a single closer like a child needs their security blanket.

The table below shows what closers (with at least 20 saves) are being paid. On average these closers are being overpaid to tune of about 1.3 million when statistics would seem to indicate that a closer is irrelevant! So much for the herd mentality and tossing out that blanket! And now we talking about conceptualizing a set up man? It is already bad enough that bullpens have left handed specialist (LOOGY) to come in and pitch against power left handed power batters...the speciation of the bullpen is getting to be insane.

Haiku Wednesday

Candle

An Old Tyme light bulb
That mesmerizing flicker
It makes me sleepy

Rox Talk

It has been approximately 50 days since the dismal end to a season of much promise. Perhaps it was just my own disappointment. Honestly I felt this team was geared for a playoff run. The numbers suggested a team with ability to win 87 plus games. The pitching was solid with the only question mark being whether Francis could provide some innings after being out of baseball for a year. Offense looked good with a couple of Rookies getting there second look at the big leagues. Bench was well rounded and the manager had an entire off season to piece together what he wanted. What more could you want?

Well since you asked I would say execution, consistency, and less injuries. Fortunately the Rox don't make excuses. Once again they had some injuries which caused some shuffling of the line ups and bullpen but productive replacements were made (i.e. Chacin, Rodgers, EY Jr.). Losing de la Rosa at the start of the year was difficult. Helton spent considerable time with back issues. Tulo and Stewart spent some time recuperating. Took two months for Street to finally get healthy and stabilize the back end of the bullpen. Rox certainly scraped and clawed for the first two months while trying to field their best team and in late September things did start to click but then there was...consistency.

Consistency was lacking especially with some of the older players. Helton started to look old and although we gave up on his power years ago his ability to wear a pitcher down and get a hit seem to disappear from his grasp. Hawpe never really recovered from an injury and was finally released. This potent bat all but disappeared but Rox expected not to miss a beat with Smith finally getting to play everyday. His pinch hitting prowess never materialized on a day to day basis and after a few months he and Spilly began sharing duties in Right. Catching still remains an elusive position for the Rox. While Olivo filled in nicely at first, the long season finally wore him down and Iannetta, once again given the keys to the car, couldn't get it out of first gear. Both Iannetta and Fowler spent considerable time in the minors trying to find their stroke. While Fowler did come back and was successful for about a month he never made the adjustments and began regressing again late in the year. The carousel at Second continues with a whole slew of characters auditioning for the spot. At this time it would seem EY Jr speed and potential spark at the top of the line up trumps any inadequacies at actually playing the position. And finally will Stewart the Hammer please show up? He plays a good Third Base but his inability to put the team on his back at times is frustrating especially with the power that the scouts says he has. Wow re-reading the last paragraph I am amazed the Rox won 83 games!

Finally let's talk execution. Beyond Tulu, CarGo, and Ubaldo (and maybe Belisle) I don't think another Rox came to the park everyday with the goal of making something happen. Granted we can't expect the entire team to click on all cylinders every game but for stretches the Rox need someone else to step up and contribute. That is why Rox carry a 25 man roster. Throw in the inability to do anything on the road only amplified the problem that if Ubaldo wasn't pitching and Tulo and CarGo were quiet (see below) at the plate the team wasn't going to win. To see that the Rox had two players finish in the Top 5 for MVP and another in the Top 3 for the Cy Young ought to make Colorado fans excited about future.



Of course with 2011 on the horizon the Rox can look up to the reigning World Series champion so O'Dowd has his work cut out for him trying to find some pieces to make this team win. Of course if we could just get our pieces to work now we might not have to spend too much on the open market. Anyway here is my take for the 2011 team for now:

C - Iannetta (McHenry)
1B - Helton (Free Agent)
2B - EY Jr (Herrera)
3B - Stewart (Free Agent)
SS - Tulo
LF - CarGo
CF - Fowler
RF - Smith
Bench - Spilly

1 - Ubaldo
2 - Hammel
3 - (Free Agent)
4 - Chacin
5 - Cook/Rogers/Paulino

Closer - Street
SetUp - Betancourt
Pen - M. Reynolds
Belisle
Daley

Don't think Mora or Giambi will be coming back. de la Rosa isn't coming back so will need a starter or two (or three). Cook might be a functional 5th starter but unless he can find his sinker he will be done (maybe we could have him just pitch at PetCo?). Overall I don't think we are too far from making it happen. Question is as a fan do you want to remain just a year in year out contender (Twins) or do we want to make a full frontal assault (Marlins) and be mediocre for a couple of years? Is the Twin Fan happy to make a quick exit to the Yankees every year or is Marlin fan reveling in the fact he has two more rings than the Twins do in the last 20 years? I'll take a ring please!

Haiku Wednesday

Stuffing

A double meaning
Not just the turkey, but me
Don't forget the Pie

Mike Vaccaro - The First Fall Classic

Mike Vaccaro in his book, The First Fall Classic: The Red Sox, The Giants, and the Cast of Players, Pugs, and Politicos Who Reinvented the World Series in 1912, relives what he believes to be the first real World Series. Obviously the year is 1912 and baseball is still a relatively new thing, at least in the big scheme of things.

Amazing thing about this book is baseball is still baseball. Reading the book is just like reading a World Series in any other year. The only difference is the gamblers and the cheap seats ; ). Either way I thought this was an interesting read. Interesting to see how betting was pretty integral to the game. One thing I have always thought was weird was how football has embraced the betting aspect and how because of it, football is such a popular sport. Interesting to see how betting plays a role and of course we see the eventual outcome of it when the Black Sox throw the series a few years later. Wonder if football would take a hit in this day and age if it ever came to light that the NFL threw a game because of betting?

The Greatest Sting Ever...

The older I get, the more I wish I could be a kid and just tune out what the American Political System has become. In this article by N. Kristof, he sums it up pretty succinctly. The reason I call the latest election "The Greatest Sting Ever..." is that the Republicans, who seem to think tax cuts for gazillionaires is a good thing and oh by the way let's fight a couple of wars too is that these new Republicans were swept into office by the very people whose wages have stagnated, whose sons and daughters are off fighting our wars, and the ones who can at least afford what the Republicans seek. It is amazing how the once great middle class is becoming hemorrhaged so that the rich can get richer. Think any of those Wall Street execs who gambled our money away is going to give back their million dollar bonuses? Wake up America...there is nothing wrong with making money, but let's not equate working hard to just plain stealing.

Haiku Wednesday

Blanket

It's warm and cozy
Friend against old man Winter
Renewing old times

Am I This Bad?

While traveling and probably feeling woe as I hate to be away from my family I came across this quote in the 11/9/10 USA Today Entertainment Section,

"...believes some people use stress as an excuse for unhealthy or self indulgent behaviours: "I didn't do this" or "I'm drinking" or "I need a massage every week because I'm under stress." Americans don't realize "how good we have it"..."

Do I use stress to justify some of my behaviours? Hmmm perhaps I should suck it up a bit?

Haiku Wednesday

Nothing

No words to describe
Blank sheet, an empty blackboard
Wasted time to read...

Susanna Clarke - Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell

What a beast of a book. This one languished on my shelf for some time. Partly because of its heft and partly because it takes some mental prodding to tackle a large book because you know you are going to be reading it for a while. When this came out, it won some awards and was lauded for the story. Without reading too much of the reviews, I generally thought I knew what I was getting into when I started to read it....And of course once into it, it was totally a different animal.

Overall the story started kind of slow. Thus it was difficult to get into it. I thought the footnotes were neat but when they continually showed up, the weight of this world that the author created started to bog down. It was an amazing thought out world. A parallel world to our own where sorcery (errr magic) was practiced. Kind of felt like I was reading Dickens. The characters were fantastic. Although the patience required to get to the real ride was trying at times the overall book was good and enjoyable...and to think when I started to read it I had just visited Yorkshire...what a coincidence!

Haiku Wednesday

Elections

Popularity
But this isn't a Contest
Issues take back seat

Playoff Talk

The Week That Was
Don Baylor, you could say, was relieved of his duties as hitting instructor. Depending on how you spin it, it could be taken that the Rox expect him to be managing somewhere else or that the lackluster offense, especially in key situations, helped make the decision. Rox welcome Carney Lansford.



Baylor and Lansford have some similar numbers although Lansford played in only 15 seasons. Baylor was more of a power hitter, at least that is whay you would call it in the 70s! Have to think this was done more for a new voice then in bringing in someone with better credentials. I also think Lansford was in the Minors for a lot of these players, maybe he can reach them (Fowler, Stewart, Anyone?).

100 Pitch Limit and 2010 Over/Unders

Last week I tried to determine what exactly 100+ means to a pitcher. 100+ is the magic number where pitcher's arms magically fall off and hitters enter the land of paradise. The graph below shows batter's OPS when the pitcher's have thrown 1-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76-100, and 101+. From the graph it would seem to indicate that the 76-100 pitches is the danger zone. This is also usually the time that the lineup turns over for the third time so hitters have adjusted to whatever the pitcher has for the day. Makes one wonder why a pitcher then doesn't change it up in the 6th inning and make his own adjustments? Of course if a pitcher is going well and makes it through this zone then they probably have all of their pitches that day and therefore they cruise past the 101+ point as indicated by the white line below. So it seems somewhat arbitrary to me on why 100 pitches is the warning sign. Hard to believe that the last 20 years we have set ourselves an imaginery plateau.

Final item for the week is the final over/unders for the year. Obviously the Padres win hands down for the most "come out of no where" team. Going 18 game better then projected was amazing and heart breaking for the Rox. I mean I didn't even consider the Padres to even be remotely in the picture at the start of the season. Although I bet 2011 they will come back to earth. Definately look at taking the under for them next year...it's called returning to the mean!

Second point is that it would absolutely suck playing in the AL East. I mean the Blue Jays had a great year. 85 wins is incredibly respectable and to think you were still 11 games behind in first place and another 10 out in the wild card. Yikes. By the way if you put money on the over for the Rox boy you must have been just a bit angry...no comment!

Haiku Wednesday

Treat

Costumes and Candy
Whatever happened to Tricks?
Kid rated haiku ;)

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
Yeah there was no week that was. I am still angry with Rox, therefore they get no love from me. And to think the Giants are still playing. Rox were 20-21 against playoff teams this year (including Twins). I think we belonged...nuff said

Texas Rangers
I am a huge fan of Nolan Ryan. The man was pitching. Sure statistically he doesn't fall into the category of the game's best but for his longetivity and his power to strikeout opposing batters made him a sight to see. He owned a 9.5 strikeout per 9 innings pitched for a career. Led the league in strikeouts 11 times and the last season he did this was when he was 43!

In the New York Times Magazine (10/3/10 edition), there is a nice article about him taking over the Rangers. In the article, it mentions that he is trying to fashion the Rangers' pitchers into his own image. Increasing the innings pitched and balls thrown per game. So in 773 starts, Ryan pitched an average of almost 7 innings a game. Pitch counts weren't used for his whole career (data only available from 1988 on) but from the time he was 41 until he retired at 46, he pitched 161 games averaging 6.2 innings and 108 pitches thrown. The graph below shows pretty clearly that when you went to Nolan's game you got your money's worth seeing him pitched; and to think these games were in the twilight of his career (41 - 46)!

So yeah Nolan liked to labor. So do the new look Rangers follow this pattern? Hard to say at this point. Without looking too closely I did track down on baseball-reference the number of times a pitcher in the big leagues threw more than 101+ pitches and then compared this to the overall number of starts. The graph below shows this along with the Rangers last ten years.

The grey dots represent the MLB. So for instance in 2010, 4860 games were started and of those 2243 games had a pitcher go 101+ pitches. In this same year, the Rangers went 87 starts with 101+ innings. Since 2008 the Rangers have shown an increase in the number of pitches thrown but their trend is also seen with MLB as a whole so maybe everyone is trying to emulate the Express?

Space 1999

Coming of age (actually starting to remember what I watch on TV) in the late 70s and early 80s there was one show on Sunday or maybe it was Friday night that I watched religiously. Face it I was the generation that was sandwiched between the original Star Trek and the Next Generation. The shows I remember most were Space 1999, Lost in Space (OK Saturday morning reruns...remember the show when the robot grew or maybe the crew shrunk and they traveled inside him?), Battlestar Galactica (remember the one where they saw a transmission of the moon landing?), and finally Star Blazers (that is probably a whole another post....).

Just recently I rented Season 1 just to relive some of those old memories. Wow amazing how your taste changes over time. While it was fun to watch some of the adventures of Moon Base Alpha sometimes the memories are better than the actual real thing. I should note that Season One did not contain the alien Maya so perhaps that was it. The thing that gets me is how trippy the show looked. Sci-Fi in the 70s is just frightening. Space 1999 is what you get when you cross 60s Star Trek with British TV production and a lot of LSD...

Haiku Wednesday

Ghost

Ethereal creatures
Wandering souls with bedsheets?
No just kids next door

Haiku of the Day

Date is ten ten ten
Binary is forty-two
The answer to life

Lightning Bugs

I was back East for work when one night walking I saw the unmistakable flash of a lightning bug. Upon seeing the light, childhood memories flooded into my brain. As a kid I loved watching the blinking lights. We used to chase lightning bugs and catch them in jars. We would then feed them and then watch them blink at night (is this curiosity as a kid OK or is it just being cruel?). Either way the bugs are magical.

Flying lighthouses
Science says luciferase
I think it's Magic

Haiku of th Day

When it's dark outside
Men see more than just stars
They see forever

Haiku Wednesday

Squash

It a vegetable?
Or call it a racket sport
To me it's gourding

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 0-7 week against the Dodgers and Cardinals. The Rox finish at 83-79. Nine games back from division winners San Francisco in third place and eight games behind in the Wild Card chase. A record of 52-29 at home and 31-50 on the road, the Rox outscored its opponents 770-717 (expected wins is 86 versus historical wins at 77). Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.07 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Really no comment. I think how this team finished is an embarrassment to the organization. To be in it with 2 weeks to go and then finish 1-13 is a smack in the face for anyone who is a fan. I really don't care what the team thinks but you go out and play to win everyday. To quit, give up, and lose 13 of 14 just shows to me this team isn't ready to move to the next level. To have the expectation to win the division and then to finish 9 back is pathetic. I hope this team is embarrassed and that it leaves an awful taste in their mouth over the next 6 months. Let it fester so that come April 2011 this team plays with some heart.

The Season That Was

Top 10 Gut Feelings on Why Rox Underperformed (no particular order)
1. Road vs Home splits
2. Random injuries throughout the season
3. Inconsistent outtings from the bullpen
4. Starting Pitchers stamina
5. Todd Helton, Clint Barmes, Dexter Fowler, Ian Stewart, insert Left Fielder's Name
6. No right hand bat
7. Entire Team Effort
8. Padres
9. Inability to beat bad teams
10. All Star Break

Top 10 Surprises in 2010
1. CarGo, Mora, Giambi, Belisle, Chacin
2. Dynamic Duo of CarGo/Tulo
3. U-Ball ascent to potential staff ace
4. Ability to beat the top tier teams
5. First No-Hitter
6. All Star Game Starter
7. Some National attention
8. Playoffs are an expectation rather than a dream
9. Winning record against NL West
10. Perhaps its the fastball most affected by altitude rather than the breaking pitches.

Haiku of the Day

It's Mello Yellow
Yellow sun, blue skies, white sand
Sucks to be away

Haiku of the Day

Dragonflys swarming
Ocean breezes a-blowing
Yuengling cold and wet

Haiku Wednesday

Rake

Nature's detritus
Sheds her coat upon the ground
Backs everywhere groan

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 1-5 week against the D-Backs and Giants. The Rox currently stand at 83-72. Four and half games back from division leading San Francisco in third place and four games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 52-26 at home and 31-46 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 754-682 (expected wins is 85 versus historical wins at 74). On pace for 87 wins with 788 runs scored and 713 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.11 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

One word - Disappointment. To have come so far and then swept in Arizona? Forget the Giants series, the D-Backs series set the tone. Had the Rox won 2 of 3 in Phoenix, the Giants series I am sure would have gone another way. But those are the breaks. This year the inconsistencies just won out. Starting pitching which has been a mainstay, failed causing the bullpen to be used up which caused the offense to have to play behind. All recipes for failure. Worse part of it all was getting swept against the second worse team in the NL. Unconsciousable and just pathetic...I'm out!

Playing Down to the Competition

One simple statistic to sum of this year:

40-28 (teams with >.500 record) Giants are 29-36, Padres are 30-35

43-45 (teams with <.500 record) Giants are 59-32, Padres are 57-3

And we wonder why we aren't going to play in October!

Haiku Wednesday

Pie

Sugar, dough, and fruit
Mixed and baked, what's not to like?
Mouth starts to water...

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-3 week against the Padres and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 82-67. One and half games back from division leading San Francisco in third place and three and half games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 51-24 at home and 31-43 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 727-646 (expected wins is 83 versus historical wins at 71). On pace for 89 wins with 790 runs scored and 702 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.13 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Would have been nice to win one more against the Padres especially at home. This is the second time this year the Rox could have moved ahead or tied with them in the standings but failed to do so (last game before the All Star break). After another week of battling, the Rox still find themselves in third place. Guess the positive in all this is that teams aren't gunning for us but the negative is that at this time we still need to leapfrog two teams to win the division and two teams for the Wild Card. In the Wild Card, the Phillies and Braves are battling each other this week so it would help us if the Phillies just sweep the Braves and allow the Wild Card to come out of the NL West. Padres still seem to be struggling while the Giants continue with dominant pitching and some suspect hitting. Of course the Rox hitting is keeping the team afloat while our pitching is struggling.

Two weeks ago it was CarGo, this past week was Tulo, when might a pitcher step up and stake a claim that we deserve a playoff berth? Hard to describe what Tulo has been doing in the past 15 games. He hit 14 homers putting him in the same sentence has Bonds and Belle. His September barrage, if it holds up and the Rox sneak into the playoffs could annoit Tulo MVP of the League. I'd imagine though, because of this team's makeup, both Tulo and even Ubaldo would much rather be in the playoffs then gain any individual superlatives (although Tulo would prefer a Gold Glove award).

So two weeks to go, 13 games in all, with this weekend probably determining the eventual winner. Let's assume Rox take care of business in Arizona (Tues-Thurs) and maybe hoping the Dodgers help us out with the Padres and the Cubs taking a couple against the Giants. That makes the Giants/Rox series this weekend potentially huge! Earlier today on the Dan Patrick show he commented on the convoluted playoff scenarios if the division ends in a three way tie. Because the Rox have won the season series against the Padres and currently own the series against the Giants, the Rox would have first choice of what to do. They could either elect to have two home play in games or choose to travel to winner of the first play in game winner! How crazy would that be!

Attendance Win Games?
In a related article to my thesis of why I am a terrible fan it would suggest that perhaps my attendance, even though I can't stand it, does relate to my team victories! In an academic paper the author suggests that a one standard deviation increase in attendance results in a 4% increase in the likelihood of a home team win and that increasing attendance by 48% a home team's run differential would increase by one run (data collected from 1996 - 2005).

I did my own analysis from 2006 - 2010. Spreadsheet below shows the hard data. Graph follows. The graph shows the winning percentage difference.

The grey bars is Rox away winning percentage. Rox tend to win more on the road when the crowd is less than 35,000 people. While at home (purple bars), Rox tend to win more when the crowd is above 25,000 although for some reason it becomes nullified when the crowd hits 30,000 - 45,000. Amazing to see how poorly Rox play at home when the crowd is less than 20.000. Moral of the story is go to the game (even if your like me and feel you are the curse!)

Whatever Happened to Dan Cortese?

Back in the early 90s there was a show called MTV Sports. It was hosted by Dan Cortese. Cortese played that into a lot of later roles but essentially the wacky host claim to fame was bringing onto the scene the introduction of extreme sports. It was a great show. The one thing I remember and I have no idea why I am blogging about Dan Cortese but he went to a Dodgers/Giants game and wore a jersey split into two parts. One part was the "Do" of the Dodgers uniform meshed with the "nts" part of the Giants. So it looked like Donuts...again I have no idea why that popped into my head but there you have it. By the way is last long term role was in 2009 playing Onno in Surviving Suburbia...go figure

Joe Kelly - I Kill Giants

I Kill Giants is one of the better trade paper backs that I have read in a really long time. This one ranks up there with my two favourites of all time which is the Dark Knight Returns and Elektra Assasin. Not really your typical superhero book this story is about a girl battling her own demons (or Giants). Powerful story that made me tearied eye when I finished it. As adults I think sometimes we forget what it is like battling Giants when you are a kid and then of course you age and you only realise there are more Giants in the adult world. Great story complemented with awesome art...pseudo manga style...that really keeps you reading to the very end.

Loved how she called her Giant Killer hammer the Coveleski...name for a 1908 left handed rookie who beat the NY Giants three times in one week. The reference is a bit wrong has he played for the Athletics not the Phillies and the Athletics were not in a Pennant race but the Giants and Cubs were and in 1908 the Giants finished a game behind Chicago...

Ultimately the story is about a child struggling with the inevitable death of a loved one. Her inner demons causing her to want to fight something she truly can't see. Powerful, thoughtful, and very sad story but it ends OK.

Rox Talk - More Thoughts

Why I am a Terrible Fan

I have a love/hate relationship with Baseball. In April I am infatuated, can't get enough. May starts to get frustrating because usually my team hasn't awaken from its slumber. June and July just seem to disappear into the summer ether. August seeks the truth as now the teams are what they are, and then finally the grueling, gut wrenching September. My joy of going to games goes from love it in April to dreading it in September especially if my team is in the Hunt. How is it that I can't watch my favorite team when it becomes crunch time?

In April you have tons of games left and watching is just a joy after the long winter months but then September hits and I squirm, my butt hurts, and every out is an eternity. The joy has gone and now it becomes torture. I spend an inordinate amount of time studying the game, reading the game, running numbers of the game. I know that if the Rox score 5 runs they have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, that if a pitcher throws about 24 pitches in an inning odds are that the opponent has scored a run, and that when the win blows from left field to right field at Coors the number of home runs increase.

With all this in my head I study the game, I accept the randomness of it all, but then September comes and passion takes over. Numbers to me go out the window and suddenly the rawness of the game becomes too much. Having been an athlete, the desire to be an active participant takes over and just sitting there on the bench knowing I can't make a difference just eats at me. The nerves, excitement, the ups/downs just remind me how much of being part of something competitive can get to me. All of this just leads me to believe I am a terrible fan because I can't sit and watch my team when the games become important. My belief, my bedrock of support just wilt and suddenly I find myself thinking the worse. Instead of winning the tight games, the myriad of things that can go wrong suddenly become apparent. So when my team needs my support, I find things to do instead of watching and only revel in their victories through highlights and wrap up stories.

It is as if my anti-support will truly matter and actually help them win! So this is my deluded view as a baseball fan. Care passionately for most of the season but when crunch time comes distance myself so that if disappointment comes I have a buffer layer but if success occurs I jump in saying I was with them all the way. Ultimately whether I support my team is truly irrelevant. My being there or my watching them isn't going to determine whether they win or lose no matter how dedicated of a fan I am and I don't have the karma to determine winners and losers. If I did know the outcome then I probably wouldn't be that passionate about the team! So I admit I am a terrible baseball fan but is it so bad to be passionate?

Giambi Speaks

I sent in my question to the Denver Post fan mail and they picked my question?

Haiku Wednesday

Autumn

Slight chill in the air
Shorter days, color changes
Nature hibernates

Stan Lee & Jack Kirby - Thor

Reprinting "Journey Into Mystery" issues 111-120, it is a look back at the legend that is Thor. While interesting to see the early history of a Marvel legend, sometimes I find going back and reading a 60s era version of a superhero to be tedious and a bit boring. While Kirby's art is fantastic the visual dynamics that I grew up on just aren't there. Not that this is a bad thing but it is like watching an old movie without all the visual extravanganza. What keeps me reading is the dynamic of the art and the story. While the 60s might have had better stories the late 80s and 90s often had both.

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 7-0 week against the Reds and D-Back. The Rox currently stand at 79-64. One and half games back from division leading San Diego in third place and two and half games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 50-22 at home and 29-42 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 683-613 (expected wins is 79 versus historical wins at 68). On pace for 89 wins with 774 runs scored and 694 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.11 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

I'm speechless or maybe you should call it writer's block? Can this team do it again in September? I'll be honest, I wrote them off after they lost two of three in Arizona about 3 weeks ago. San Diego was on cruise control (we were 11 games back at that point) and there were five teams ahead of the Rox. Since then the Padres and Cardinals have tanked, the Braves have struggled and fallen into the Wild Card, and while the Giants have played decent ball, our Rox don't seem too far away.

This week the pixie dust was flying. First U-Ball gets number 18, CarGo is talked about as a potential triple crown winner, Tulo's bat went crazy, Giambi's walkoff, and then the wackiest play you ever saw and that was a come from behind steal of home to seal the victory (or should I stay steal the victory?). Either way it has to be one of the greatest weeks in Rox history at least for defining heroes.

Now the question is what now? Rox have 19 games left (9 at home, 10 away) with Padres coming in this week. Ideally Rox sweep the Padres and dump them into 3rd place. We then go on the road to LA and Arizona, then back home against SF and LA with a final trip to St Louis. Perfect scenario would be for the Rox to take the Division lead after SF passes through Denver and then we pummel the Dodgers and then face St Louis and wave the Division title in Holliday's face! That would mark a great season. We then get Reds/Braves and then get Philadelphia in a seven game series for once. Although Phillies have a World Championship and have been to two World Series, remember the Rox put them in their place in 2007. It would be a nice bookend to end their run and get to the Series again, with home field advantage! Remember U-ball started the All Star game, it would be nice to see him start Game 1 of the World Series at Coors! Dream baby!

The Crazy Week That Was

First off Inside the Rockies saved me the time and effort and highlighted every Rox steal of home. Nelson's was the 15th and for the most part it was the first straight steal in Rox history although as Tracy Ringolsby explains EY Senior had one too but it was because a double steal didn't work. It would seem that the historian's had trouble discovering how rare a feat a straight steal of home by a rookie was. Either way Nelson gets his first MLB stolen base the hard way. I find it hard to believe, looking at the list, that Todd Helton has two swipes of home! Also interesting to see that 11/15 steals of home were in fact done at Home!

Last week after CarGo's insane early week performance (he pulled within 3 homers of the being the Triple Crown leader), the National news media jumped on the band wagon. Of course the primary moan against CarGo was his home and away splits. History would show that Rox hitters have always had a tough time proving that they should exist in any offensive discussion about a great season. A triple crown and possible MVP discussion would certainly bring the Coors Field Effect back into play. If somehow the Rox do make the playoffs I can't fathom that CarGo wouldn't be a front runner. Anyway the discussion last week was home and away splits and I thought maybe we should look at win and loss splits among the MVP leaders. See data below:

The NL numbers were determined taking win/loss splits of the NL up to this point in the year and then calculating the numbers for 130 games played (which was about the average number of games the three leaders had up to this point). After getting the data I am not for sure what I was really looking for. I think originally I was thinking that to be called a MVP and as part of being the most valuable player that somehow even when the team lost that said player would still put up huge numbers. So basically I was looking to see who had the best numbers when their team lost. As the numbers show all three players don't have very good numbers when their team loses. So it kind of makes my point moot in that when they play like MVPs their respective teams win. Big problem with CarGo was that he really didn't bat most of the year in a MVP spot (3rd of 4th in the order) and thus his numbers are somewhat different then the other two. It is pretty apparent that CarGo is a hacker. His dismal walk rate really affects his OBP but boy his slugging sure makes up for it. CarGo is pretty much a basher and probably be considered a Adam Dunn type batter (thank god he plays a better outfield!). In addition CarGo probably doesn't get much love for his speed and baserunning nor his outfield play. With 19 games to play he can certainly cement his position with a monster September!

Victor Appleton - Into the Abyss

I was a huge reader of the third series ('81 - 84). Eleven books were written and I think I read at least through Book 7. I loved the books. So with interest I read Book 1 of the Fifth Series just to see if I could relate. Unfortunately not and mostly because Tom has gone back in time and become an earth dweller again. The thing I loved about the third series was the future and exotic technologies. Not very exciting when this book is just about Tom saving his dad in a deep sea submarine. Come on how can the series go back in time. Tom is supposed to be about the future! I weep for our future, where are the kids supposed to get amazed?

Carlos Gonzalez - MVP Candidate?

Wow today was the tipping point for the Colorado Rockies and Carlos Gonzalez. Affectionately known as CarGo, he has been up to this point, part of baseball's witness protection team. A snub at the All Star break, he lost out to Omar Infante of the Braves, because the NL manager basically wanted a life long AAAA player on his roster in case the game went to extra innings...yeah whatever!

Anyway the fray began quietly this morning when Joe Posnanski wrote on his blog the extreme road/away splits of CarGo. Gee nothing new because every great season by a Colorado player has been analyzed relentlessly (i.e. Walker, Bichette, and Holliday) and enough pundits have said that the Coors Field effect should dismiss any significant offense value (and of course this discounting won't help Ubaldo's Cy Young chances even though his season should be considered the greatest ever!)

Then later in the day we hear from Dave Cameron at FanGraphs denouncing much of CarGo's offense at Coors because the run value at Coors is so inflated.

And then finally Rob Neyer weighed in as well...and then Rob twittered this link and then even on ESPN's Scott Van Pelt radio show, Scott himself even took time out of his busy football smatterings to discuss how insane CarGo has been recently.

So all in all a fantastic publicity day for our forgotten baseball team. Finally a player gets his due. At this juncture the only possibly way CarGo wins the MVP at this point is if the Rox make the playoffs. If that happens he is a shoe in otherwise forget about it. By the way if you read through the Joe Posnanski comments section you will find a incredible link with some amazing analysis. Who knew its the fastball that kills pitchers at Coors not the breaking stuff...AMAZING! Think about it...it says a lot why Rox hitters are tame on the road...

Haiku Wednesday

Tailgate

Everyone ready?

Yup time to watch some Pig Skin

Saturday fun time

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 4-3 week against the Giants, Phillies, and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 72-64. Four and half games back from division leading San Diego in third place and five and half games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 43-22 at home and 28-43 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 635-591 (expected wins is 72 versus historical wins at 64). On pace for 86 wins with 756 runs scored and 704 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.07 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

A 4-3 week at this point would seem to equate to doom but three of those wins were against the division leading Padres and so only a week ago the Rox were eight out of the division title but now find themselves within striking distance especially with three more against both the Giants and Padres.

Rox are a resilient team. With the O's willing this team to the finish line. Tulo and CarGo have been monsters these last two weeks. Question is what can we do with 26 games left to play. Fortunately 16 of these are at home and only 10 left on the road (LA, Arizona, and St Louis). That final series in St Louis could be interesting especially if the team can make up some ground against the Reds. Of course it would be awfully nice to clinch a playoff berth in St Louis too since last year the Cards clinched at Coors.

What the Rest of World is Saying...

Yeah CarGo is pretty special, thanks for noticing...

Five is the magic number...

Will the home vs away talk ever go away? Probably not...

For the record, from '95 - 01, Rox won 231 of 558 games on the road versus 314 at home. From '03 - 09, Rox won 225 of 567 on the road versus 316 at home. Further analysis of the run scoring environment from '95 - 01, Rox scored 2319 runs and allowed 2598 (expected wins in 250) on the road versus 3973 runs scored and 3743 runs allowed (expected wins is 294) at home. From '03 - 09, Rox scored 2377 runs and allowed 2747 (expected wins is 246) on the road versus 3273 runs scored and 3037 runs allowed (expected wins is 303) at home. So the humidor has saved 1406 additional runs...pitchers thank you for that, although '95-01 was the height of the steroid era so who is to say the humidor has done anything?

Also of note is that the visitor's split of runs allowed at home versus at Coors from '95-01 averaged 164 difference. So this means our pitchers allowed 164 more runs at Coors then they did away from Coors. Since '03, this average has dropped to 41. Again one has to wonder is this because of the humidor or Rox understanding what type of pitcher succeeds at altitude? Unfortunately if you think having groundball pitchers matter the average GB/FB ratio for both periods of time comes out to be 0.85! So much for that theory...Perhaps it is just home grown talent understanding the mental challenges of pitching at altitude, too bad the offense can't figure out how to hit on the road

The mullet versus Scully...

Bruce Sterling - The Caryatids

While Gibson is still writing interesting novels I am not for sure about Sterling. While this book was OK it seemed more like Sterling using this platform to pontificate about just random stuff. Not a terribly concise novel and really when all was said and done nothing really came together. Oh well. Lots of neat ideas, some interesting characters, and concepts but the title would have suggested all those female

characters would have meant something or the three stories would have strung together to mean something. But it seemed Sterling run out of gas and while his thoughts were thrown out there none of them came together. His Caryatids never held things up (see below).

Haiku Wednesday

Honey

The Royal Jelly
Golden succulent sweetness
Feels like royalty

Billboards Against Obama? WTF

Seen on a billboard in Georgia today:

"God is not a Socialist"

Which got me thinking what is a socialist. Wikipedia defines socialism as, "Socialism is an economic and political theory advocating public or common ownership and cooperative management of the means of production and allocation of resources." OK so when people go to church and decide to give "X" amount of money to the church each week on Sunday what exactly do they think they are doing? Besides thinking it will help them get to heaven, they are basically redistributing wealth to give to the poor or the needy. Of course if I was God, I'd be angry being labeled anything! I'm God!

Just something to think about...oh and what is a Consumer Economics degree? Isn't that balancing your checkbook? What is this country coming to?

Rant Over

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 5-1 week against the Braves and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 68-61. Eight games back from division leading San Diego in third place and four and half games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 43-21 at home and 25-40 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 605-564 (expected wins is 69 versus historical wins at 61). On pace for 85 wins with 760 runs scored and 708 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.07 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

What to make of this team? Just when I've given up, just when I think they are done (lose two to Arizona), they claw back into it (sweep the Braves, two of three against Dodgers). I mean since the All Star Break they took a nose dive (see graph above), then become a see-saw (win one, lose one), and then have a marvelous homestand. Couple of weeks ago I moaned about the killer schedule the Rox had to face down the stretch. What I didn't consider was maybe this was a benefit. As of August 7th, Rox were 26 - 26 against teams with a losing record (thanks to TroyRenck's twitter for that piece of info). Maybe Rox just play to their competition. If that is the case, then our Rox are going to be on fire the rest of the way. This week will certainly define September as our Rox stop in San Fran for three, come home for one against the Phillies, and then finish the week in San Diego.

Who knows but at the end of this week Rox could move ahead of Giants, Cards, and Phillies and find themselves leading the Wild Card. Maybe 2010 won't be a footnote but something special. I know this, if Rox do make the playoffs, CarGo should be a huge MVP favorite.

Seventh Inning

With 126 games in the books, we have completed the 7th 18 game stretch. CarGo made his presence felt in a huge way. Rox starter's have come back to Earth. They have really struggled since the All Star break. Jimenez has really struggled and has unable to win number 18. He will really struggle to get to 20 at this rate. Real question is will our bullpen's arms fall off if we do in fact make the playoffs?

Haiku Wednesday

Hike

We seek to explore
World of cube farms and cell phones
A chance to be free

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 2-4 week against the Dodgers and D-Backs. The Rox currently stand at 63-60. Eleven games back from division leading San Diego in third place and seven games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 38-20 at home and 25-40 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 566-534 (expected wins is 65 versus historical wins at 58). On pace for 83 wins with 745 runs scored and 703 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.06 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Big changes afoot in the Rocky Mountains. Amazing to think that on July 11, the Rox found themselves two game out of first place in the West. Had they won that day they could have entered the All Star break tied for first. Unfortunately the Rox have suffered through a disappointing 14 - 21 stretch that has taken them from two out to eleven out and basically out of the playoffs. While the road trip from hell (gee heard that before) ended the hopes of the division title, there was still hope that Rox could squeak into the playoffs. Unfortunately I think with the latest trip and two losses to the basement dwellers D-Backs, I think at this point the Rox need to look to the future.

Interesting to wonder if the Rox age finally caught up with them? Hawpe, Helton, Giambi, Olivo, Barmes, and even Spilly are all over 30. It is rare that a player that can still tie em up and be consistent at this game when they hit that magic number of 30. I imagine the daily grind, the aches and pains can lead to performance issues as a player ages.

As a fan I am hugely disappointed by the 2010 season but perhaps this downturn could lead the way to a better 2011. Imagine had the Rox won the division, what would the management done? Probably took Hawpe's option, made an offer to Olivo, and took on Barmes for a few more years. With the current situation as it is, I think the outcome could be beneficial. This downturn allows management to justify ridding the team of older talent and heavy contracts. In 2011 young talent will get a shot and Rox won't have to take on any longer term contracts. A younger team could lead to a great 2011 (and 2009 and 2007, see a pattern?).

In the end moving on is always tough. Hate to see players move on when the team isn't performing because the assumption was that the player's moving on were the reason for the team's distress. But the fact remains that very few player's can be productive and so with the downturn we can effectively jettison these older player's without the need to add to payroll. Cruel but a small market's way of life. Rox can't afford to waste money. Graph below shows our aging veterans and their wOBA against the lead average. Would you sign any of these players long term?

75 Percent Done

With 120 games in the books that means the Rox are 75 percent of the way through the 2010 campaign. Graph below shows projections at the 3/4 mark compared to the other previous quarters. The solid graph is the average projections at the start of the season.

CarGo still having a monster year scoring a whole bunch of runs. Everyone else but Olivo is under expectations. Hawpe and Iannetta (granted they haven't played a lot of games) the Rox just aren't scoring runs. They are on pace to score 60 - 70 runs below expectations!

On the other hand the pitching has been pretty decent.

Haiku Wednesday

School

Paper and pencil
Yellow buses and teachers
Summer goes to fast

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 3-3 week against the Mets and Brewers. The Rox currently stand at 61-56. Eight and half games back from division leading San Diego in third place and five games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 38-20 at home and 23-36 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 558-517 (expected wins is 63 versus historical wins at 55). On pace for 84 wins with 773 runs scored and 716 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.08 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

On a week vacation with no computer, I have to admit that I was kind of glad to get away from the daily baseball grind. In my absence the Rox really didn't do anything spectacular and based on the figure above it was pretty much a give and take kind of week. Think I have to agree with Woody Paige on his article today in the Post although I don't think his reasoning that it went down this way because the Rox did nothing at the trade deadline holds a lot of water. Really there was nothing out there that would have solved the hair pulling frustration that is the Rox on the road. Why was it in '07 and '09 that the Rox could win 39 and 41 games respectively but in '08 and '10, the Rox could only squeeze 31 and 32 (projected) wins?

The chances for a Roxtober repeat at this stage are pretty slim. With the Giants, Cardinals, and Phillies all ahead of the Rox for the Wild Card and with San Diego's unbelievable pace not letting up, I think even a magical September run would be tough especially with road trips to LA (6 games), Arizona (6 games), San Fran (3 games), San Diego (3 games), and St Louis (4 games) remaining. Only Arizona has a losing record and we have a 5-4 record against them this year. With 45 games remaining even if we split the remaining road games (11-11), Rox would have to win 18 of the remaining 23 home games just to get to 90 wins and this is against division leading Atlanta (3 games), Los Angeles (6 games), division leading Cincinnati (4 games), Arizona (3 games), Philadelphia (1 game), division leading Padres (3 games), and Wild Card leading Giants (3 games). San Diego is projected to win 96 games while San Fran is projected at 91. Miracle runs have been made before but Rox would have to go 30 - 15 just to tie San Fran for the Wild Card and Rox schedule down the stretch is brutal. If trends go like they have then the even number years stink for the Rox and they play well in the odd years so here is to 2011!

Sixth Inning

With 108 games in the books, we have completed the 6th 18 game stretch. This stretch was ugly including the 2-9 road trip. Offensive numbers were skewed in that Rox scored 17 at home against the Cubs during one game. When Herrera is your clutch hitter for the stretch you have to know your offense didn't do a whole lot!

Dan Ariely - Predictably Irrational

As with the other books (mostly the Malcolm Gladwell books), these type of books make you question your decisions and also make you go hmmm. Which is a good thing mostly. Fascinating to see how predictable your decisions can be. Entertaining book.

As with any context the author, Don Ariely, explains that his book is because, "I have been told by many people that I have an unusual way of looking at the world."

Quote from Woody Allen, "The most expensive sex is free sex" - Yup pretty true ;)

"When we mix social and monetary norms, strange and undesirable things can happen." Basically don't pay your neighbor to help out...as soon as money is brought into play it changes the entire game.

"My own approach is to try to view all transactions (particularly large ones) as if I were a non owner, putting some distance between myself and the item of interest." Hard to do...

"But even stranger is our compulsion to chase after doors of little worth - opportunities that are nearly dead, or that hold little interest for us" Something we could all really work towards. Hard to shut that door!

Joshua Bell experiment (thought I had blog about this before but guess not, incredible experiment in context)

"But even when offered $50, only 19 percent of passerby stopped and took a bill" Amazing how cautious we have become and how we are always looking at what is the catch...

"In essence, individuals more concerned with portraying their own uniqueness were more likely to select an alcoholic beverage not yet ordered at their table in an effort to demonstrate that they were in fact one of a kind. ...,people particularity those with a high need for uniqueness may sacrifice personal utility in order to gain repetitional utility." God I've done this so many times and regretted drinking some god awful beer just to impress with my individuality! Arghhhhh

Summer Vacation 2010

The Rockland Harbor Lighthouse. Interesting because it sticks out on what I think is a man made walkway into the harbor?
Not our boat but a sister ship to the Nathanial Bowditch. Beautiful ships.

Beautiful sunset (and our boat) after the first day on the boat and lobster in our bellies. Ended up sleeping on the deck every night because of the chill Maine air. Stars were everywhere. Amazing what you can see when it is dark outside. The next night was a meteor shower and there were some amazing rocks burning up in our atmosphere. Memorable journey and trust me the water in late August is still freaking cold! Burrrrrr