Nassim Taleb - The Black Swan

This book was stunning. Not at all what I expected. Of all the business/human nature/gotcha books that I have read this one struck a cord. Know not an event in the world goes by without me thinking that no one could have predicted it...that is why it happened.

From world events to where I put my money this book can rock some of your core foundations. So much of what we do has been built into our heads and/or we all follow the herd in almost everything we do. The question then is do you follow your own thoughts hoping for that big payoff or do you play it safe and gamble like everyone else?

"It is often said that the world seems to have been built to the specifications that would make our existence possible...However our presence in the sample completely vitiates the computation of the odds...The one who is still kicking (by accident) will feel that, given that he cannot be so lucky, there had to be some transcendental force guiding him and supervising his destiny...The problem here with the universe and the human race is that we are the survivors"

Another thing that was interesting in this book is all deep the author goes off on philosophical rants. Wow never really comprehended some of the inane things people can think about. I was also bit shocked by how arrogant the author was against other economist. Wow talking about taking the gloves off and using your book to slam home your opinions about people. While I certainly belief he is own to something the basic ideal to me is that a black swam is so rare so unexpected that by simply considering it no longer allows you to call it a Black Swan. Think of Katrina or the Housing Bubble...if people really considered these events to be a real probability...chances are it would have never happened...therefore how does the concept become useful?

Other interesting quotes from an otherwise fascinating book....

"A nerd is simply someone who thinks exceedingly inside the box" (i.e. Don't be a nerd)

"Don't be a sucker"

"It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra

"The future ain't what it used to be" - Yogi Berra