Monopoly?

With the holiday over, the comment was made after playing the annual family game of monopoly, why is it that no one ever lands on Park Place and Boardwalk? This website calculated the probabilities of landing on each square and this website does a cost analysis of what sites are the best to own. The probabilities in the spreadsheet below were taken from this site and was simply sorted on rank (it is actually the purple properties that are never landed on). Boardwalk and Park Place are middle of the pack but my guess is that you end up in jail before you make it around the board(?).

It would appear the best properties to own are the light blue, orange, and all the railroads...

Rox Talk

WAR - What is it good for? - Part 2

So last time we delved into batting wins above replacement. A convoluted system starting with a batter's wOBA and ending with runs above replacement which subsequently is reduced to wins. In the NY Times article, it stated that Zack Greinke's desire was to have a WAR value of 10. If he had done it (he achieved a WAR of 9.4), he would have been the first to do so. To put his achievement in perspective, the highest offensive WAR ever achieved by a Rox is 7.9. An even more stunning comparison is to note that the 2004 Rox team's pitching staff eked out a whooping WAR of 6.5 (that team had a record of just 68 - 94 and this year's KC record was 65 - 97 so if every team should win approximately 48.5 games based on just AAAA replacement player's performance then Greinke single handily had almost 9.5 of KC's other 16.5 wins above replacement!).

So where does the madness begin? With another esoteric statistic called Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP. The FIP calculates a pitcher’s responsibility for the runs he allows based on the three factors that a pitcher has demonstrable control over which is walks, strikeouts, and homeruns. The FIP is used because it provides a context neutral formula to a pitcher's performance similar to that of the batter's. In this way the WAR for a pitcher can be compared directly to the batter. The FIP also takes out the contribution of the fielders behind the pitcher both good or bad. Using FIP has some detractors. Another stat called tRA has some believers but it is suggested that at this point, using FIP is as good as anything else out there (or at least comparable). Once FIP is established, some hocus pocus entails using differences in replacement level for each league and role (AL is harder to pitch in then the NL), run environments (a pitcher due to his ability limits the numbers of runs scored per game), the dynamic runs-to-wins conversion, and park factors (Coors Field vs. Petco). Finally a runs above replacement is generated and once again converted to WAR.

So the spreadsheet below shows the top FIPs in Rox history (min 50 innings pitched) and the top WARs.

FIP leaders tend to be your dominant relief pitchers. Ubaldo 2009 campaign is the first starter but it is also the highest WAR in Rox pitching history. 2009 was a monster year for Rox pitchers. Four of highest WARs since 2002 were from this year's staff. Rox won 92 games, there WAR total for a team was 90.3 and so the Rox had approximately 42 wins above a replacement level team. Almost 45% of the team's wins above replacement could be attributed to last year's starters. With Ubaldo, Cook, Hammel, de la Rosa (?), and Francis (?) back next year I can say with some certainty that as the pitching goes so goes the Rox!

Next I will check out what all this WAR means from a team perspective...

Geoffrey Norman - Two for the Summit

Outside magazine (I believe) had either an excerpt or perhaps an accompanying article detailing the author's adventure. Having a desire to possibly climb the highest peak outside of the Himalayans I thought it would be a good read. Well time flies and I finally read the book. It was good but very little of the book was about Aconcagua. In fact the majority of it was rock climbing and the Grand Tetons. The Aconcagua portion was kind of an afterthought but it was interesting to read. Sounds like a tough mountain mainly because of the amount of work a climber is required to do such as cooking and setting up your tent. Can't imagine climbing all day then having to do all the housekeeping stuff.


Climbing is an exploration of yourself and the consequent deep relationships with your partners. At its most fundamental level, it's not about conquering a particular mountain or achieving a specific goal...climbing is a journey with lots of wonderful experiences.

--Alex Lowe

Random Haiku

Random haiku that came to me on our star spangled superhero...Captain America

A Star Spangled Shield

The unique soldier serum

Our freedom's symbol

Admantium shield

The super soldier serum

Our U.S. Captain

And Greyhounds...

Majestically thin

Flash in a blink of an eye

Really just lazy

And Jazz

Saxophone simmers

Bass thumps, piano prances

America's song

Haiku Wednesday

Yarn

Single strand begins

A knitting transformation

That weaves my sweater

Things Wrong with our Country

On my soapbox again. So I read this article (see link) and it got me thinking...which is worse the fact that someone actually writes this or that a certain segment of the population actually thinks there is truth to it? All I can say is this is no way to run a country.

I freely admit that I lean to the Democrat side of thinking but I also can appreciate the way Reagan ran the country back in 80s. Now in the 80s I was "coming of age" and frankly politics really didn't affect me. At that age you simply made fun of politicians. As I aged, I appreciated Clinton's intelligence and desire to balance the budget. This made sense and to think a Democrat wanted to balance a budget...then we had the Bush and Gore debacle. Politics suddenly became a dividing issue, an us versus them mentality. Compromising and providing an adequate second voice suddenly became outdated. The minority party simply laid low for two years and hoped that policies backfired and that they would then become the majority again. This seesaw battle has only given us failed policies (Guantanamo Bay, Iraq/Afghanistan, and Death Spiral of a Federal Budget to name a few).

Which brings me to the the article above...how is it then that the best interest of this country is when one party simply sits back and lets the other party do what it wants while laying the seeds of dissent with the hope of whatever policies are set forth, fail so that in the next election cycle they can tout their dissent for ultimate political gain. Anyone want to place bets on who controls Congress in 2010? Does 1994 Contract with America ring any bells?

What happened to making your interest in this country number one when it comes to making decisions. Why has our two party system failed so utterly in the last 20 years? For a democracy to work we need cooperation and compromise. We need the Republicans (and Democrats) to bring forth opposing ideals. Ideals with validity that are designed to make this country better. Politicians then need to debate and compromise and write bills that find common support. Something each party can walk away with and say this is a win for us. Instead we simply have no minority ideal, no dueling plan, just a group of dissenters with nothing to say but "NO". Compromise is now seen as weak and siding with the enemy. I mean the Republicans have recently announced a ten point checklist for candidates hoping to gain funds...you can bet siding with the "enemy" is a big no - no! The daily news cycle wants black and white, a winner and loser and therefore any middle of the road politician is run out the door filling our democrat institutions with extremist politicians that have lost touch with their constituencies and simply become "yes" man to the political machine that welcomes their staunch support to parties views that get the most bang for the buck.

Where is compassion? Desire to make our country great? How is that we have become so hateful of others with different views. Deep down I don't think we truly hate each other that much. Red vs Blue is just a construct, a media tool. In the end I think the world is going through a profound change...America's are scared. Our time as a great country is waning, we no longer control our destiny. This fear is being used for political gain and might. It is much easier to lead with fear then to try and establish that we have lost our way and to find it again might require effort. In this day and age that is what I see, the Democrats latching on to hope that each individual can make a difference while the Republicans latch on to fear and negativity.

In the end it is a sad day for our country. Obama promised hope and yet that hope is slipping away. Where is that leadership we saw in the election cycle...the positive, the inspiring words, the desire to do good. If things don't change hope will simply fade as a failed idea. Why have we become so distressed...why don't we want to make the hard choices? Because it is simply easier to mock our opponents and not be part of the solution. Who wants to be responsible?

Without a middle ground our country will simply polarize itself into oblivion. Hard decisions won't be made because right or wrong it becomes part of your record. Easier just to do nothing and blame the opposing party for your woes rather than setting forth your own ideals. We have become the "not-me" generation...what a pathetic path especially in respect to our forefathers who sacrificed so much to provide for us the foundation that we sit upon today. Politicians today should be shamed for what they represent. Not only are you failing your country but you are failing our children who will be left with a hollowed out core of a Constitution...we can only hope they see through our petty policies and make a difference otherwise we all fail.

Rox Talk

WAR - What is it good for? - Part 1

There has been a big seismic shift in the world of baseball this week. With Greinke and Lincecum's Cy Young award wins this past week, the world of statistics has firmly kicked the old baseball school purist in the groin. To think that a 15 game winner would lose out to a 19 game winner back in the day would be pure heresy. As the NY Times put it, the pool of voters are changing which is causing a shift away from traditional voters to a different and more statistical attuned group. This is probably similar to the front offices in baseball that are getting away from the scout centric view and moving more into a numbers only view of players. First there was Moneyball and Billy Beane and then the Red Sox hiring of Bill James a number of years ago with Epstein bringing with him a new look front office which may (or not) have been the reason for the Red Sox burying the curse in 2004. However you cut it baseball is moving in a new direction.

So what about this WAR? It stands for Wins Above Replacement. It is a complex formula (to say the least) that attempts to quantify a player's worth in comparison to that cheap triple A call up. In addition the WAR is calculated different for offensive players and pitchers (see Part 2). For offensive players it is calculated by providing a "number" for batting (using wOBA, wRAA, and then a park adjustment factor), fielding (using UZR with no factor involving outfield arm skills and all catchers are rated at 0), a positional adjustment (good shortstop is harder to find then a good left fielder), and a replacement factor (that deals with how many plate appearances and awards players who play everyday). These four factors are then added which provides a runs above replacement value. This number basically gives the runs a player would provide over a replacement player. Remember a replacement player is that AAAA player who is playing for the league minimum. Once this number is determined it is then divided by 10 (again a determined number which indicates a 10 run change in a team's runs scored/runs against suggests that one win is 10 runs). Thus the player's runs above replacement level is divided by 10 to provide the almighty WAR.

Now if you want to get even more advance you can factor in how much teams payed for free agents last year and by determining their WAR over the years you can determine a going rate for a win. Therefore one can valve what a player with a 5 WAR is in comparison to a 2 WAR player. Again this ain't your father's statistics. These numbers are becoming so esoteric that one wonders if we lose sight of the diamond? One can view this page to see 2009 wOBA for our Rox as well as WAR.

Basically Tulo led the team with 0.393 (over 0.400 is considered a superstar and over 0.370 is all star caliber). He was followed by Helton, Hawpe, CarGo, and Smith (and why wasn't Smith an everyday starter?). The spreadsheet below provides the top 50 wOBA in Rox history. Larry Walker was superman...wonder if he will even get a look see with the Hall of Fame?

Also in the spreadsheet above is the top 50 WAR in Rox history (note: data only exists back to 2002). As you may recall I am not a huge fan of Matt Holliday but boy for two years he was worth every penny and more for what he did on the field for the Rox. It will be interesting what he does this off season.

Richard Feynman - The Pleasure of Finding Things Out

Feynman was a brilliant man. Funny how Nobel Prize winners become a voice for their scientific generation. Einstein was similar back in the day and I think Feynman probably took over this role. It is special to have these scientists because they are able to communicate to the masses. Most scientist are incapable of spreading the word of what they do let alone try to communicate much beyond what they typically study. In the rare instances the scientist can not only communicate his work but move beyond that and become a voice for profound thought. So of the quotes I liked are below.

Page 24, "I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong."

Page 145, "The atoms come into my brain, dance a dance, then go out; always new atoms but always doing the same dance, remembering what the dance was yesterday."

Page 152, "The argument that the same risk was flown before without failure is often accepted as an argument for the safety of accepting it again."

Page 169, "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."

Page 202, "maybe solving equations is experience you need to gain understanding-but until you do understand, you're just solving equations."

For me his brilliance was during the Columbia investigation. When all was said and done, what will be remembered from the report was him dunking an o-ring into a glass of ice water and showing the effects. Simple and sweet just like his physics classes...oh if it could only be that simple for the rest of us!

Hardy Boys - The Ghost at Skeleton Rock

My son had to do a book report on this book and we have a policy in the family to help out our kids by reading the book they choose. Well these aren't the Hardy Boys I remember...ha! Actually they are still Frank and Joe and I probably read this book when I was young. I even tried to read them all when I was younger but the similar plot points over time just got a bit boring...so I moved on to Tom Swift!

Anyway for a 6th grader I have to admit trying to summarize the plot points in this book was rather tough. Plot points seemed to have been stuck in after the fact just so that the book either met the magic page limit or a ghost editor wanted to make sure to confuse even the Hardy Boys. It made no sense and trying to summarize it in few paragraphs...yeah right. Unbelievable how all over the map this book takes you. Not only that, it might has well be a choose your own adventure book because the plot is so convoluted that I might think Franklin Dixon was a pen name for a bad Faulkner. And to think there were well over 80 of these books published back in the day.

Haiku Wednesday

Thanks

A time to gather
Share in a feast, but give thought
Hunger still exists