10.06.2008

Rox Talk

Well after a 74 - 88 finish how did this all look based on some preseason predictions? Well looking back to April, Vegas O/Us for the division was the D-backs at 87.5, Dodgers at 86.5, the Padres at 84.5, and the Roxs at 83.5. Based on returning Win Shares and adding in their off season additions the D-backs were at 78, Roxs at 81, Padres at 68, LA at 83 and the Giants at 71. So what was the final tally?

So for last year based on the team's final standings

W

L

RS

RA

Ex - W

WS Factor

Arizona

90

72

712

732

79

0.88

Colorado

90

73

860

758

90

1.00

San Diego

89

74

741

666

89

1.00

LA

82

80

735

727

82

1.00

SF

71

91

683

720

77

1.09


2008 Standings

W

L

RS

RA

Ex - W

WS Factor

LA

84

78

700

648

87 (83)

1.04

Arizona

82

80

720

706

82 (78) 

1.00

Colorado

74

88

747

822

74 (81)

1.00

SF

72

90

640

759

68 (71)

0.94

San Diego

63

99

637

764

68 (68)

1.08


Well Vegas did awful but the Win Share method did fairly well.  Boy the Dodgers really helped their cause with pitching.  And well the Roxs just couldn't score.  Based on early projections based on Chone, ZiPs, Pecota, and Marcels the Roxs had a spread of wins from 77 to 93.  The average was 84 wins.  I predicted an 85 win season finishing second to the Dodgers.  Looking at expectations the injury bug certainly hurt the Roxs with Helton and Tulo missing considerable games.  The big hole was 2B where we had 84 runs scored last year thanks to Matsui and this year the patchwork at the 2-hole only produced 65 runs. The lowest predicted run score was 770 runs!  

For as much griping as there was for the pitching staff this year, I really think it was the offense that really underperformed. Had the Roxs scored 800 runs they would have won 4 - 5 more games. Oh yeah and if the Roxs weren't 3 - 15 against the D-backs we might have been a bit more respectable too.

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