Rox Talk

Here, here, and here were my preseason picks or thoughts. Basically I used the stat predictions that were theorized by Chone, Marcel, and ZiPS and placed the numbers into the spreadsheet and came up with 89, 81, and 86 wins with an average of 85. I predicted 83. The Roxs surprised us all with a whopping 90 wins (heck Vegas only gave them 74.5!). Looking at the opening day roster we certainly had some dead weight that we shed early in the season to include Brian Lawrence, John Mabry, and Steve Finley. We tossed Martin later in the season and Ramirez was hurt. Also hurt through the season was 3/5s of the starting pitching rotation with Lopez, Cook, and Hirsh all going down mid-season. So ultimately a pretty stable offensive team with some shaky pitching (can you say Denny Bautista 2 inning outting in Philly in Game 145?). We filled in with the likes of Spilborghs, Sullivan, Herges, Speier, Jimenez, and Morales. At the mid-way point, I had updated the predictions based on play time of the new players and had the team at 83 but the Roxs mid-season numbers projected them at 76 wins! Yikes what a great finish. See the historical winning percentage and Pythagoras winning percentage versus 2007 numbers:

So that was what was projected...how did it all finish up? Offensively the average from the predictions indicated 5,684 at bats and 847 runs (from the 8 position players and six bench players). Overall the Roxs had 5,691 at bats and 860 runs (or run every 6.6 at bats, interesting stat?). Below is a table indicating in purple the average runs from the prediction with a one standard deviation error bar shown. The white blocks serve as the actual runs scored. The 8 starters accounted for 72% of the at bats and 78% of the runs scored. Adding in the six bench players you then account for 89% of the at bats and 94% of the runs.

So what does this say? Well offensively we had Torrealba, Matsui, Tulo, Holiday, and Hawpe have outstanding above predicted years and Helton, Atkins, and Taveras below predicted. Hopefully next year the offensive can keep pace.

Pitching is a bit more difficult to predict as injuries can effect numbers more. Thirteen pitchers had starts for the 2007 season. Francis led the team with 34, then Fogg at 29, Cook at 25, Hirsh at 19, and Jimenez at 15. These 5 accounted for 75% of the starts and 51% of the innings and 53% of the runs. So from a prediction standpoint it is much easier to get the offensive down. Although I think it is the pitching that really defines your won/loss record (can this be proven in some way? Have to think about it...a later post). Pitching was not a strong point this year for the Roxs and with any sort of stability next year with Morales and Jimenez both having a partial year under their belts and the further stability of Francis and Cook I think pitching is key for next year's team.

Next year will be tough one for the Roxs. How will they handle being the NL Champs? Can they build on this year or will they buckle? Hard to say but I'll refine the numbers again next year and see if we can get back to the playoffs.