2.01.2007

Baseball???

Spring Training is right around the corner and I thought I would do some very basic unscientific research to determine how many wins the Roxs might have this year. My basic every day line up is as follows:

C Torrealba
1B Helton
2B Matsui
3B Atkins
SS Tulowitzki
LF Holliday
CF Taveras
RF Hawpe

Bench
Carroll
Barmes
Sullivan
Iannetta


Using ZiPS, Chone, and Marcels projections this line-up normalized to at bats based on the average of the last five years (approximately 5542) gives a runs scored of 892, 798, and 854. Not too shabby since they have average 803 runs in the past 5 years.

Moving on to the pitchers...I simply took the starting pitching found out the innings pitched over the last 5 years (approximately 1429) then normalized on the starters (didn't bother finding out individual relievers because at this point who knows). The ZiPS has the starters going 840 innings while Chone has these starters going 810. With the average innings pitched being 1429 for Rox pitchers I simply extended the starters out over 1429. Probably an estimate too high since we hope relievers will give up less runs but I figure the runs scored from above is probably a bit overzealous (all projections assume a perfect healthy season, mostly!)

Pitching
Cook
Francis
Lopez
Kim
Buckholz

So from the two projections I came out with 801 runs allowed for both projections! Finally through this into the Neyer Pythagorean theorem (using 801 for Marcels) and I have the Roxs winning 89, 81, and 86 for an average of 85 wins. Not too bad!

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