Rox Talk

Leading off with some personnel issues. Matsui did sign with the Astros for a 3 year deal worth $16.5 million. The Roxs offered a two year deal and stated that they were concern with his lower back and that is why they did not throw a 3rd year in. I respect that from the front office especially with Jayson Nix probably ready in 2 years anyway. Guess you can't begrudge players if the money and years are there, but from a fans perspective I think sometimes maybe a player should give some consideration to the a team that gave him another chance. Two years ago Matsui was washed up, on the scrap heap, and dumped by the Mets. Oh well that's life in the bigs. Possible second basemen of interest out there is still with Loretta, Iguchi, and one interesting one is Uggla from Marlins. Second piece of good news is that Herges did sign with the Roxs so that is good. No big news from Nashville but we shall see...Dealing Dan seems to have backed off on his earlier quick draws.

Research for the week is an additional look see at the Roxs starting pitching.

So the basic stats (plus game score which you read about here):

Basically Francis was the work horse for the team. Fogg was the surprise and savior. The first five pitchers accounted for 75% of the starts and overall the starting pitching accounted for 64.1% of the innings pitched for the entire team. When Lopez pitched, he won (unfortunately he really never was a reliable starter and got shut down early due to injuries). If a quality start is defined as a game score of 50 then only Francis and Jimenez averaged a quality start during the season. Francis, Cook, and Jimenez all had a 77 game score which led the team. Fogg had the distinction of having the lowest game score of 4! Based on the team's success this has to be the best pitching squad put out by the Roxs in their team history.

In addition to the the above stats, I also looked at some other wacky stuff. One question I have always had was what would be a starter's record if he won (or loss) those games because of relievers (or was bailed out by the offensive or relievers and got the no decision)? Also which pitcher actually pitches with the lead?

First Part:

First off a starting pitcher must pitch 5 innings to get a win. Hence Bautista above who only pitched two innings and left with a no decision did actually get a win in my book because he started and he left the mound leading. Hirsh had alot of starts like this as well, leaving before the 5th but leaving with the lead. To me a Starter is the workhorse, there are some middle relievers who get a lot of innings, even some to rival a starter, but to me it is the starter who is asked to go out and give innings. Even through all the changes in pitching, every team looks for 5 guys who can go out and throw at least 6 innings every 5 days. Good pitching still seems to conquer good hitting and most teams need reliable starters to make it deep into the playoffs (see Yankees 2006 and 2007!). Therefore my look above is to give Starters a bit more credit for what they do. In essence I am basically removing the relievers from the equation and innings pitch requirement and simply determining if the starter left with a win, loss, or tie.

So in normal speak the Roxs starters were 55 - 47 (.539 Winning Percentage) with 61 no decisions. In my revised look the starters were 84 - 60 (.583) with 19 ties. Did Francis win 20 games? Well according to my look he would have finished 19 - 13 - 2 (meaning the relief corps blew 2 games in which he left with the lead and the offensive bailed him out 4 times after leaving a game with a loss). When looked at this way only Francis and Lopez actually had a worst winning percentage when these extra W/L are added. The unluckiest? Among the Top 5 inning getters it was Fogg or Jimenez as Fogg had 5 extra wins and Jimenez 4. Cook had the best winning percentage upgrade going 8 - 7 to 11 - 6. Does this revisionist look at pitching stats mean anything? Probably not...over a pitcher's career my guess all the blown saves or offensive help probably average out (although I would like to look at all the MLB starters...). To me the bottom line is what does the team do when a certain Starter is on the mound. Bottom line of the graph below is that when Francis is on the mound the Roxs won 22 times (out of 34 starts). Even Hirsh who really had an up and down season had the team win 10 times when he started (out of 19 starts). To me it means that 2008 does have some upside when it comes to pitching. With Francis, Cook, Hirsh, Jimenez, and Morales, we have some depth.

Second Part:

If the above study looked at the underbelly of starting pitching (who has luck, no luck, or just happens to pitch that day the offensive was asleep) this next look is what does the Starter do for themselves (i.e. keeps the team in the game by keeping the lead or keeping the game tied).

Of the Big 5, Cook pitched with the lead or tied 70% of the time. Overall during the season the Starters for the entire season pitched with the lead 67% which seems high to me but the inning eaters were all around 66% with only Hirsh be subpar at around 52%. Obviously some more seasoning is required for him but from above even by pitching from behind the Roxs still mentioned to win. Which kind of makes all this study of pitching somewhat irrelevant. I need to research some past seasons to see if any of these trends actually hold up over seasons or if there is just randomness from season to season.